Posted on 09/14/2024 9:56:18 AM PDT by Signalman
National Poll. 9/12/2024
The race for the White House continues to be close, as former President Donald Trump holds a two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Just one percent (1%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and another two percent (2%) are undecided.
Usually, that's the case. But we may not see that happen in this election. I explained why in #12.
I thought Rasmussen had Trump ahead by 6 points the other day?
Are voters fickle or do the pollsters just suck?
Too close for comfort. WTF is wrong with people?
people nowadays aren’t going to correctly answer political polls over the telephone... i don’t when they call or text me...
I did not include the calculus of the impressive ability of democrats to cheat.
Trump is down 60-36 in Cali, your declaration have no facts backing you up. Trump, in the last breakdown i saw, is getting 11% of the black vote. 3% more than 2020. 3% more of a 13% pie among 155m votes is 80k votes spread across 50 states. If spread that evenly across the states that matter you’re talking maybe 10k vote different among blacks which doesn’t even make up a % point in this poll. Your analysis is trash. Say you don’t trust the polls if you don’t which is completely logical but garbage analysis is garbage analysis.
Thanks. I’m not sure how much he accounts for cheating
This race isn’t even close. I don’t care about polls.
In my experience if a Republican is doing well in national polls, they are probably doing well in the battleground states.
Urban areas aka cess pools.
“I thought Rasmussen had Trump ahead by 6 points the other day?”
Nah, Ras has had Trump consistently up by 1-3 points for the past month or so. But Ras may be THE #1 “Republican-friendly” pollster. Them or Trafalgar. So adjust accordingly when necessary.
I took that poll
If Trump is ahead nationally, the race in the battleground states are over
Mitt Romney was and is a deep state stooge. But he was certainly right about the 47%.
My gut feeling tells me Trump is up a lot more than what the polls are spinning, and this is purely to give cover for the massive cheating that will happen.
Harris is going to crash & burn in all the swing states.
The margins will be somewhat close, but she’ll do much worse than Clinton in 2016 & Biden in 2020.
Indirectly he accounts for it because he is correcting for errors in previous polls.
I’m not saying they won’t cheat enough. Just that I think it will be harder than last time.
Does anyone predict Trump to Crack 50% in polls soon, consistently?
And what actions might that trend have on the Dems and deep state? But I repeat myself there.
My guess where we are at the moment based on prior years over under polling.
Trump +1 in PA, +3 in GA, +1 in NC, tied in Michigan. +1 in Arizona, - 1 in Nevada (Trump under performed in past for this state). Wisconsin polling seems off Trump has over performed in the past status unknown at this point. New Hampshire - 3.
Hopefully he can open up some space but the money machine may keep it close. I hope we have people in the streets getting out the vote in these states/
50% will never happen. Rasmussen has a pronounced pro-Trump bias of around 3 to 5 points.
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