I assumed that sound judgement would cause the war to end after the failed counter-offensive of 2023. The last real chance Ukraine had to turn things around.
After that point, Ukraine is simply losing more over time and has no real chance to turn anything around. So it would make sense to end it in order to minimize the loss. If you can’t maximize wins, at least minimize the losses. But we kept this war going.
That said, not sure why he thinks 10/1 is the date?