Posted on 08/04/2024 11:42:48 AM PDT by Jumper
The Ukraine war will end in a surrender, not in a negotiated deal. That is my sense of where the war is headed and why the parties cannot negotiate a settlement.
The article is at the link, not posted due to possible copyrights.
The author explains the root causes why negotiations are not possible between Ukraine and Russia.
(Excerpt) Read more at weapons.substack.com ...
Warring states need to directly agree on ending a conflict.
There is no hope of a third party implementing any deal, as the Minsk agreements (2014, 2015) prove. Minsk was a hybrid case, where the deal was signed by Russia, Ukraine and by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Ukraine refused to implement the deal, and the OSCE proved toothless and unwilling to try and enforce the Minsk accords....
There are three strong forces keeping Zelensky from the negotiating table -
1 - the US and Britan
2 - Ukrainian legislation, sponsored by Zelensky, prohibiting negotiations with Russia; Zelensky also has signed a decree prohibiting any negotiations https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ukraine-zelensky-signs-decree-rule-out-negotiation-russia-vladimir-putin-impossible-11664876727245.html
3 - Pressure on Zelensky from hard-right nationalists, including especially the neo-Nazi Azov brigade
The Russians say that Zelensky himself is not a negotiating partner because his term of office expired in May.
The battlefield situation, the Russians no doubt figure that the time will soon come when the Ukrainian army either collapses or surrenders, or both. In either case, the Ukrainian government will need to be replaced in some manner, perhaps with an interim military leadership selected by Russia.
Surrender by Ukraine's army and an agreement with a replacement government would make continued NATO involvement in Ukraine impossible.
The key message for NATO if the Russians win in Ukraine, as seems more and more likely, is that NATO has to stop its expansion and look for a more stable arrangement with Russia in Europe.
That also means Russian tube artillery can't even reach the front line. Almost all of their tube artillery now consists of 122mm howitzers with ranges of 12km because they've burned out the barrels of everything with longer ranges.
The only thing holding the Ukrainians back is their own logistics. They've had the capability of conquering the Crimea (which is out of supply) for months but are waiting for the right psychological moment to do so.
Wish that were the case but it’s not
Hah! Hah! Hah! The Russians are now out of water! Good Lord, 2022 is calling. They want their “the Russians are out of everything” bull$hit back. Thanks for the comic relief and the blast from the West’s hope porn past. What utter crap!
If the Democrats win the coming election (I mean steal the coming election) the US will be bankrupt and in economic chaos with triple digit inflation before the Ukraine war is ended.
Every single US dollar will be sucked out of the US taxpayer and given to the makers of arms before the war is permitted to end.
Sounds like Uke propaganda. I don’t believe anything form either side. The truth is that both sides are suffering but Russia has more bodies to throw away than the Ukes. If Zelensky would be realistic, he would try to negotiate an end to this war.
Amazing how you know this.
This “surrender” deal smells rank. Gimmee Zelensky’s chomping at the bit, anxious
to hit up the US (taxpayers) for billions more.....for “rebuilding” war-torn Ukraine.
The United States of America, as a Nation will not withstand an other Democrat Administration. It will be reduced to a geographic area or areas.
I think a number of states like Texas that could easily be independent states will secede.
Some of Texas’s neighbors will likely join them.
I think most certainly Louisiana will join them.
The War in Ukraine will not end without the permission of Fake UMC Mom - Tiimber Rattler - Maximoose - Speedy and all of the other Paid posters.
The End….of course, St Z just defaulted on their debt, ( like I stated way back when), they are now financially officially BANKRUPT. They never planned on repaying one cent even tho St Z states they are just “ renegotiating “ their debt.
The good part, all the Western companies( Blackrock a major funder) and collective West eat $$$$ billions.
Do realize Ukraine defaulted on their IMF and World Bank loans shortly after the 2014 western engineered coup…..one reason they were never admitted to the EU and Nato. Deadbeats they are and always will be.
A good lesson for the war cheerleaders.
The Russians say that Zelensky himself is not a negotiating partner because his term of office expired in May.
———-
A true statement, much of the world realizes this ( except for the corrupted collective West). The only certainty is St Z will NOT be the one who officially signs their surrender documents. The world will not accept that.
Stephen Bryen - former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense and is a leading expert in security strategy, now spokesman & lobbyist for Russia
It is interesting to note Vlad just took out 300 senior Ukie and western air advisors in the Yavoriev base ( Lvov region) yesterday, with a hypersonic Kinzhal. It seems Vlad is making good on his promises.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhZbJYkpmsI
Video footage of a massive riot against the Ukie press gangs, the crowd succeeded in the Ukie “ recruiting “ thugs releasing the military aged males.
Fact is, the Ukie population will no longer allow their depleted male population fed into Vlad’s meat grinder. Ukies are now officially bankrupt, with little chance of replenishing their massive losses.
Post war analysis will be glorious.
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