Posted on 08/02/2024 2:11:33 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued from the Florida Keys up the Florida Gulf Coast to Suwanee. The system is crossing Central Cuba, moving at 16mph. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. Governor DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 54 counties, most along the Gulf Coast and in northern Florida, to move assets in preparation for the storm.
August 13 marks 20 years since Hurricane Charley made landfall near Punta Gorda FL.
The rapid strengthening of Charley in the eastern Gulf of Mexico caught many by surprise. Around five hours before its Florida landfall, Charley was a strong Category 2 hurricane predicted to strengthen its strongest winds to 115 mph upon its landfall in the Tampa–Saint Petersburg area. About two hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory, notifying the public that Charley had become a 145 mph Category 4 hurricane, with a predicted landfall location in the Port Charlotte area. As a result of this change in forecast, numerous people in the Charlotte County area were unprepared for the hurricane, although the new track prediction was well within the previous forecast's margin of error. National Hurricane Center forecasting intern Robbie Berg publicly blamed the media for misleading residents into believing that a Tampa landfall was inevitable.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
Local News:
FOX4 News Southwest Florida
WWSB Sarasota/Bradenton
WFLA Tampa Bay
WESH2 Orlando
The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of SC from the Savannah River
to South Santee River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
1100 PM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 65 MI WSW of Cedar Key FL
About 100 MI WNW of Tampa FL
Max Sustained Winds...75 MPH
Movement...N at 12 MPH
Minimum Pressure...985 MB
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the storm center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Glad you are back and connected to the outside world. Thanks for checking in tonight.
Pinellas Co.: Duke Energy reporting 40,874 customers without power.
Water rescues occurring at two Largo apartments due to flooding.
Tornado warning E Manatee County at Hwy 64, moving toward Wimauma.
Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024
NWS Doppler Radar imagery from both Tampa and Tallahassee along with
reports from both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Debby’s structure has continued to improve this
evening with a ragged eye becoming apparent. Both NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft have found strong flight-level winds
in the convective band located well to the east-northeast of the
center, with the Air Force plane measuring 700-mb flight-level
winds in the 75-77 kt range. Recent dropsonde data has shown that
the pressure has fallen to around 985 mb. Based on these data,
Debby is being upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane at this time.
Although the inner core is still somewhat ragged, the storm’s
structure has improved and additional strengthening appears likely
overnight and early Monday while Debby moves over waters of high
heat content in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and within a favorable
upper-level wind environment. The NHC intensity forecast is again
at the high end of the intensity guidance. Weakening is expected
while Debby moves inland over the southeastern United States. Some
restrengthening is forecast when Debby moves over the western
Atlantic, but there is still higher-than-normal uncertainty in this
portion of the forecast.
There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Debby
should continue to move generally northward overnight and early
Monday through a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a
mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This motion is
expected to bring the center onshore along the coast of the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. After that time, the trough
is forecast to move eastward causing the steering currents to
weaken over the southeastern United States. This will result in a
significant slowdown of Debby’s forward motion, and the model
spread increases significantly in the 72-120 h time period.
Regardless of Debby’s exact forecast track during that time, the
slow forward speed is likely to cause potentially historic rainfall
across southeast Georgia and South Carolina, with an increasing
likelihood of catastrophic flooding.
Heavy squalls just keep coming, long after Debby has passed. With each squall, another flash flood warning. This storm is pulling a lot of energy.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
...DEBBY STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
Hurricane Debby Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
The eyewall of Debby is moving onshore and landfall in the Florida Big Bend is expected to occur within the next few hours. Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the eye of the hurricane has become a bit more circular and deep convection remains fairly well organized over the eastern eyewall, and in bands east of the center that have spread across portions of northern Florida. There have been numerous reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, but the strongest so far is in Horseshoe Beach, where a weather station recently recorded a sustained wind of 57 kt and a gust to 83 kt. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the maximum winds are likely near 70 kt, and Debby will likely maintain that intensity or strengthen a little until it reaches the coast.
After landfall, Debby is expected to slow down and turn northeastward as the steering currents collapse, taking the system across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia later today through Tuesday. Most of the models show Debby moving off the southeast…. Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland, and Debby will likely become a tropical storm over northern Florida this afternoon.
Good morning - it’s raining everywhere! Makes for a spectacularly colorful weather map. Thanks for thread! Stay safe out there, everyone.
We could use rain here where I live, north of Harrisburg PA.
I’ve watched storm after storm track either north or south of us all summer long.
The trout stream in my back yard is woefully low.
CUT this: “Most of the models show Debby moving off the southeast (coast)….” -that’s off coast after exits FL
Just woke up and local news says a heavy rain band is moving into central Fla. soon and could contain a brief tornado. We have a tornado watch up until 4 pm. A wind gust of 49 was reported in Clermont (Lake county) per WFTV. More than 13,000 customers in Marion county are without power.
I saw Jim Cantore is going to be in Charleston. So if I were in Charleston, I would be leaving now. :)
This thing is never ending with “feet” of rain still expected,you guys are getting some of it we dodged the bullet although we did get hit by a microburst a few weeks ago.all this and we are just getting started in the hurricane season!!
Sure hope she doesn’t make that hairpin turn off the Georgia coast, we are seeing on one model 😳
One pass is plenty, thank you!
Tatt
Hurricane Debby Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
700 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024
...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and
Doppler radar images from Tallahassee indicate that the center of
Hurricane Debby has made landfall around 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC) near
Steinhatchee, Florida in the Florida Big Bend.
Data from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the minimum pressure
at landfall was around 979 mb (28.91 in) and the maximum winds were
estimated to be around 80 mph (130 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Pasch
Be careful what you wish for. I’m old enough to remember Agnes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Agnes#Pennsylvania
Was wondering where he was.
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