Posted on 08/02/2024 2:11:33 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued from the Florida Keys up the Florida Gulf Coast to Suwanee. The system is crossing Central Cuba, moving at 16mph. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. Governor DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 54 counties, most along the Gulf Coast and in northern Florida, to move assets in preparation for the storm.
August 13 marks 20 years since Hurricane Charley made landfall near Punta Gorda FL.
The rapid strengthening of Charley in the eastern Gulf of Mexico caught many by surprise. Around five hours before its Florida landfall, Charley was a strong Category 2 hurricane predicted to strengthen its strongest winds to 115 mph upon its landfall in the Tampa–Saint Petersburg area. About two hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory, notifying the public that Charley had become a 145 mph Category 4 hurricane, with a predicted landfall location in the Port Charlotte area. As a result of this change in forecast, numerous people in the Charlotte County area were unprepared for the hurricane, although the new track prediction was well within the previous forecast's margin of error. National Hurricane Center forecasting intern Robbie Berg publicly blamed the media for misleading residents into believing that a Tampa landfall was inevitable.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
Local News:
FOX4 News Southwest Florida
WWSB Sarasota/Bradenton
WFLA Tampa Bay
WESH2 Orlando
This month marks 20 years since little Hurricane Charley raked the FL Peninsula.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Southwest coast of the FL peninsula from East Cape Sable to Boca Grande
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys south of the Card Sound Bridge including the Dry Tortugas
* The southern coast of the Florida peninsula east of East Cape Sable to the Card Sound Bridge
* The west coast of the Florida peninsula north of Boca Grande to the mouth of the Suwannee River
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Was just going to ping you to start a thread
Models had the track over the spine of Cuba over land so the intensity isn’t that high
However seems it is taking a left turn (west) and/or reforming south off the coast ???
If this is true then the Intensity models may be underplaying in the short term (which I’ll be the longer term too)
I should note the waters in the eastern gulf are very warm and running 2-3 degrees above normal
The storm should turn north then NE. And ad I have Talked about in previous years this has the “worst case scenario” path for Tampa
With a NNE moving storm just offshore funneling surge into the bay
Of course the intensity has the be a CAT 3 plus but at least the path in the case is a possibility
Also the Euro stalls it off SC coast later and moves quickly west into SC
We have so many newbies living in Florida who may underestimate how quickly a storm can strengthen in the FL Straits and Gulf of Mexico. Add to that the FL Gulf Coast topography, where the slightest change in storm direction will cause a big change in storm surge for coastal populations.
I’d hate to see that on Election Day on the redneck Riveria.
This storm system will be long gone by August 20.
Summer weather!
It’s early on in the game - but we have one (1) pending National Park closure already...
DeSoto National Memorial (Bradenton) - https://www.nps.gov/deso/index.htm
Here is nat hurricane center as of 5 PM EDT:
Properly called a tropical depression TD4 as posted here with top winds currently 30 mph. iow a big tropical thunderstorm with waves of storm formations that could become cyclonic, a little confusing is whether it will be a cyclone. Even so the storm track of the Tropical Storm so indicated once past the Lower Keys— is an S 39-73mph winds, a notable concern. Farmer friends in FL need the rain, finally (been in a drought for several months).
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. “
That last line supersedes all the other % chances— and really gums up the forecast— which is it- 90% through 7 days or “formation not expected during next 7”. guess they don’t know until it gets over open water.
The system over Cuba has a 90% chance of development into a tropical cyclone. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Atlantic basin during the next 7 days.
Good point— newcomers pay attention. Friends there say this reminds them of Charley as you have mentioned, though this one seems to be sneaking up- and maybe a nasty surprise cyclone.
Thanks posting all the templates- the model tracks all come up to the Outer Banks. The two UK and Canadian show going further out in the Gulf, which is worrying to cyclone formation.
The Gulf not being the Atlantic thus higher % cyclone formation— that correct?
If you are referring to the Gulf of Mexico (as opposed to the Gulf of Aden or the Gulf of Alaska or the Gulf of California or the Gulf of Tonkin), then the Gulf of Mexico is, indeed, included in the Atlantic Basin.
Little Debbie and Hostess Twinkies are two good examples of non-perishable foods. At the end of times, there will be cockroaches and Little Debbie snak cakes.
Newcomers pay attention. Listen to the long timers.
Good advice. Never turn your back on a storm in the gulf.
Surely you cannot be this obtuse- the track goes through Gulf of Mexico. Never mind.
Mash graphic to enlarge
You’re so nice for always doing this. Thank you.
Rains all up the FL, SC, and then GA eastern coasts, eh?
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