Posted on 08/02/2024 2:11:33 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued from the Florida Keys up the Florida Gulf Coast to Suwanee. The system is crossing Central Cuba, moving at 16mph. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression on Saturday as it moves across the Straits of Florida, followed by intensification into a tropical storm by Saturday night. Governor DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 54 counties, most along the Gulf Coast and in northern Florida, to move assets in preparation for the storm.
August 13 marks 20 years since Hurricane Charley made landfall near Punta Gorda FL.
The rapid strengthening of Charley in the eastern Gulf of Mexico caught many by surprise. Around five hours before its Florida landfall, Charley was a strong Category 2 hurricane predicted to strengthen its strongest winds to 115 mph upon its landfall in the Tampa–Saint Petersburg area. About two hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory, notifying the public that Charley had become a 145 mph Category 4 hurricane, with a predicted landfall location in the Port Charlotte area. As a result of this change in forecast, numerous people in the Charlotte County area were unprepared for the hurricane, although the new track prediction was well within the previous forecast's margin of error. National Hurricane Center forecasting intern Robbie Berg publicly blamed the media for misleading residents into believing that a Tampa landfall was inevitable.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
Local News:
FOX4 News Southwest Florida
WWSB Sarasota/Bradenton
WFLA Tampa Bay
WESH2 Orlando
Very interesting, because that happens in my microclimate as well. And it just so happens that there is an Indian Mound 8 miles from my location. Afternoon storms and even winter storms often break up at the mouth of Tampa Bay. I went two months without a drop this Spring.
We’re neighbors...
We are.
We visited our kids last week in Tampa. They just moved there in June. I can confirm that the Gulf water at the beach was VERY warm. Hottest I can recall. It was not refreshing.
You will appreciate the weather and water temps in Tampa Nov-Apr.
Yeah we did it just ended lot of rain and wind.
Good to see ya on here bud!
Keep the PINGS coming! Prayers up for everyone in Debby’s path! Calling a friend in FL to see how she’s coping - she really, REALLY hates these storms but is in FL caring for her Mom until she passes.
As always, I’ll add: https://www.windy.com/?22.898,-89.561,5
Looks like Debby is hitting Havana right now, and there’s also something ominous off the west coast of Mexico, looking to hit Acapulco in the near future.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE DEBBY...
...SQUALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
Meanwhile... tornado warnings now appearing on the Gold coast!
That model ensemble looks like a ball of string after my cat got hold of it.
Recon reported 1000mb. 5mb drop since 8:00PM advisory.
1100 PM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 50 MI WSW of the Dry Tortugas
About 260 MI SSW of Tampa FL
Max Sustained Winds...45 MPH
Movement...NW at 14 MPH
Minimum Pressure...1003 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and
the southern and western parts of the Florida Peninsula through
tonight, expanding across much of northern and central Florida on
Sunday.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Debby during the past few hours and have found that
the winds have increased slightly and the central pressure has
fallen. The NOAA P-3 plane reported SFMR measurements of 35-40 kt
east of the center over the Straits of Florida, and dropsonde data
indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1003 mb. The
initial intensity is therefore raised to 40 kt.
Debby is gradually turning toward the right and slowing down, and
the initial motion is northwestward, or 320/12 kt. A large mid- to
upper-level trough over the eastern United States has created a
break in the subtropical ridge, which will cause Debby to move
northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the
Florida Big Bend region over the next day or two. The track
guidance is in good agreement during this period, and the NHC track
has only been shifted slightly east to account for a slight
relocation of the initial position based on the aircraft data.
After 2-3 days, the steering currents around Debby collapse, and
the cyclone is expected to creep northeastward at less than 5 kt
across northern Florida to near the coasts of Georgia and South
Carolina by day 5. While there is model disagreement on exactly
where Debby will end up on day 5, there is high confidence that the
storm will not be moving very fast, and this slow motion will have
major implications for the associated hazards, particularly heavy
rainfall and flooding.
Low vertical shear and very warm waters (as warm as 32 degrees
Celsius within Apalachee Bay) are likely to support additional
strengthening while Debby approaches the Florida Big Bend. The
intensity guidance has increased a bit on this cycle. Most of the
regional hurricane models are showing Debby reaching hurricane
strength before it reaches the coast, while the
statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models have increased to the
75-80-kt range. In addition, the Rapid Intensification indices are
showing a 1-in-3 chance of a 45-kt increase in intensity over the
next 36 hours. Based on these model data, the NHC intensity
forecast has been increased to 75 kt in 36 hours, just before the
center of Debby is expected to reach the coast. Weakening is
anticipated after landfall, but Debby’s intensity on days 3 through
5 is highly uncertain and is dependent on whether the center moves
over the Atlantic waters and for how long.
Key Messages:
Fort Jefferson in the Dry Tortugas looks like a wet and windy place to be tonight.
That fort has really withstood a lot of storms over the decades.
I wonder if there’s any NPS staff holding up there tonight?
I can’t imagine what it would be like to ride out a storm in a place like Fort Jefferson.
Both the GFS and euro slowly zig zag it up the east coast with stalls over the next 7 days
In any event huge rainfall over a large area from From Florida to southern New England
Yes, this one is still a strange mess, as of 1:55 am ET. Praying this storm somehow blows out to sea... we don't need any more rain in the Savannah, GA / Hilton Head, SC area.
Thanks for the pings and updates, NautiNurse!
Some of these storms defy prediction. Earlier I saw the loop in the Gulf now it’s in the Atlantic. Gotta be tough to figure.Pretty big storm.
NW at 14. If it hits land at even a low #1 say 75 mph with a 14 mph forward speed thats really close to a 90 mph storm. Barometer dropping some as well.
Tracking these things with a steering current collapse has to be about as tough as it gets. Even off Savannah water temp is 83.5 more than enough to feed a storm. Destin has had very warm water temps at 88/88.3 the past two days,just wreaks of intensity build up.
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