Posted on 07/22/2024 8:20:48 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
After a seismic shift atop the Democratic presidential ticket, the likely new nominee faces some of the same problems the current president does.
While Kamala Harris is likely much less prone than Joe Biden to show cognitive issues by mixing up names and losing track of what she’s saying, she’s still got to find a way to make up ground against Donald Trump in the next 104 days.
A HarrisX/Forbes poll released Monday (but conducted July 19 to 21, the day Biden left the campaign) has Trump in blowout territory, leading Harris 50% to 41% overall and 51% to 40% among likely voters.
“Kamala Harris starts her 2024 battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump and leads her by almost [double] digits in our polling,” commented Dritan Nesho, HarrisX CEO and chief pollster. “If the polls don’t start to close and show better traction for her, Biden’s decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of ‘too similar, too late.’”
That survey isn’t the only one with red flags for the blue team.
An On Point Politics/SoCal Research Sunday survey shows Trump with majority support, leading Harris 51% to 43% in one of the first national polls conducted after Biden left the race.
While the poll had a +2 Republican lean in sampling (with 38% of respondents being GOP versus 36% Democrat), other data should worry Democrats — including 24% of respondents saying they’re more likely to support Trump with Biden out, against just 18% less likely to do so.
The Trump camp spotlighted this survey along with a slew of Trump-Harris trial heats in its favor ahead of Biden deciding not to run,
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
I wonder who actually called Kamala today on speaker phone!!! What is going on in this country today is unbelievable!!
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Unfortunately, the election isn’t today and Harris will be a more formidable opponent than many here seem to think. We should already be working the phones, sending more money, and giving people who aren’t Trump voters a good reason to vote for him. Otherwise, we’re all toast.
4months guys. Let’s not lose sight of that. Today is not the election.
Our job is to make it TO BIG TO RIG, we will have the resourses on the ground we WILL HAVE eyes everywhere, we WILL HAVE foot soldiers everywhere, Elon will supply the technology needed, we WILL HAVE attorneys at the ready HOWEVER it is up to us to make sure the vote is overwhelming!! I know many of us are completely FED UP however we owe it to Trump after all he has been through to VOTE no matter what we feel about the steal!!!
RE: 4months guys. Let’s not lose sight of that. Today is not the election.
You could have said the same thing even if Biden did not quit and it would be the same.
Women can effortlessly see through other women. They can spot a skank from a mile away.
Only problem is the article is assuming that 2020 election results were accurate.
They were not. 2020 was stolen.
Michigan is much tougher for Trump now with “Genocide Joe” out of the way of angry Arab voters. Kamala is a solid Israel-basher, and her husband is a self-hating “Jew.”
Yeah but did you see the things that Laura Loomer has been saying? If they’re true and Biden dies in office and Kamala is made President it’s a whole new ballgame.
Me too.
Unfortunately, the election isn’t today and Harris will be a more formidable opponent than many here seem to think. We should already be working the phones, sending more money, and giving people who aren’t Trump voters a good reason to vote for him. Otherwise, we’re all toast.
Exactly!
He always was insanely popular.
They’ll just cheat more.
Yes, we have to not celebrate early and work and donate to Trump because lefties will do anything to win the office.
Too many of my fellow Trumpers do not realize that a campaign needs money to win, for ads,suppor staff and get out the vote.
Too many talk a good game but don’t do anything to help win,
If someone doesn’t want to donate directly to the GOP or Trump campaign consider this young man: Scott Pressler he helped defeat Hillary Clinton is registering voters to help Trump win, https://earlyvoteaction.com/
for more
see more about him here
pressler https://x.com/ScottPresler
For true Catholics, (not Catholics in Name Only ) that are supporting Trump with ads and get out the vote
See CatholicVote.com
Jaw-Dropper! Trump Leads Kamala 64% to 29% in Polymarket Money Bet – Up 10 Pts. in PA… Up 30 Pts in AZ… Up 40 Pts in GA!
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/07/jaw-dropper-trump-leads-kamala-64-29-latest/
The two states talked about in the article are GA and NH. No other states are named for lack of new polls since Biden withdrew. But, based on the new national polls showing Trump with a lead of at least 2 points, Trump will win all seven “battleground states” (AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI), and probably also ME, MN, NH and VA. This would be as many as ten states won by Biden in 2020 (NC was won by Trump in 2020, all the others by Biden).
Here are the Real Clear Politics “with toss-ups” and “no toss-ups” maps:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/toss-up/electoral-college
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
If you click on AZ, GA, NC, NV and PA, you will see that Trump has leads of 4 to 6 points in these states. In my view, these aren’t toss-up states. They lean to Trump.
MI, MN, NH, VA and WI, on the other hand, are within 3 points. Given RCP’s methodology, they’re toss-up states.
BUT ... we have more than 3 months to go, almost anything can happen. We can’t take any of these states for granted. Plus, there are important Senate, House, Governor, state legislature, municipal and county office, district attorney and school board races all over the country.
Trump is concerned about a lot of things including restoring his 2016 margin in the white vote. Also winning the Hispanic and Asian vote, and eroding the Democratic margin in the black vote. His wants to do well with women and younger voters. He wants Republicans to offer voters a real alternative in the cities. As he might put it, with a big, beautiful victory, Trump will be better able to Make America Great Again.
thanks Minnesota.
The numbers you’re quoting are betting odds. If correct, the betting odds reflect polling data as well as any other relevant information. Plus, the betting odds take into consideration the time remaining until the election. A lead of 2 or 3 points in the polls doesn’t mean much when you’re this far out from the election. I’m o.k. with Trump being a 2-to-3 favorite at this time, as stated in the source you cite.
That doesn't mean anything. All polls are adjusted to fit a "likely voter" turnout model. A poll is not supposed to magically poll people in the exact proportion that party registration exists.
Give him a cat to hold and he looks like a Bond villain.
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