Presidential Historian Explains Why Dropping Biden Won’t Help Democrats

The Wall Street Journal ^ | July 6, 2024 | Wall Street Journal

[E. Pluribus Unum]

President Biden is under mounting pressure to drop his bid for a second term. Historian Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidents based on his system of thirteen true/false questions to the strength and performance of the White House party, breaks down why Biden still represents the best bet for Democrats.

Answers of true always favors stability. If six or more answers are false, we have earthquakes.

US Presidential elections are essentially up or down votes on the strength of the performance of the White House party.

In other words, it's performance, not campaigning, that counts.

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

[Libloather]

...correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidents...

Which one did he screw up?

[E. Pluribus Unum]

https://nypost.com/2024/07/01/us-news/historian-who-accurately-predicts-elections-urges-democrats-not-to-dump-biden-could-not-be-more-misguided/

“Lichtman’s string was broken in 2000, when he correctly predicted that then-Vice President Al Gore would win the popular vote, only for George W. Bush to win the Electoral College and the election.”

[Who is John Galt?]

"In other words, it's performance, not campaigning, that counts."

Given what happened in 2020, one might also say that "it's cheating, not campaigning, that counts."

[escapefromboston]

Predicting 9 out 10 races where its a (at worst) a 50/50 coin flip really isn’t impressive.
and really most elections its pretty obvious who is going to win.

[Libloather]

Soooo close...

[spacejunkie2001]

technically he missed 2; bush/gore and the stolen 2020 election from DJT

[LittleBillyInfidel]

With a 6 handicap for electoral fraud.

[dragnet2]

The Democrats are the people who wanted and supported the dementia patient. Then they turn on a dime and now want him thrown out of office and want a new candidate. The jig is up, it’s a party run by lunatics and their hysterical supporters.

Good luck with Camela.

[escapefromboston]

They aren’t upset that Biden has dementia
They are mad that the entire country knows about it. Democrats were more than willing to allow him to continue being president despite his mental problems

[Gay State Conservative]

later

[Ge0ffrey]

Both candidates are incumbents.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Both candidates are incumbents.

But one of them is an incumbent incumbent and the other is an incumbent emeritus. 🤡

[FreedomForce]

So according to Lichtman, the President could be caught on video sexually molesting children then murdering them, but if seven of the criteria listed in his model were true, the President would be re-elected. Seems to me his model may not be sufficient to cover all the possibilities.

[Responsibility2nd]

Yep. If he predicted Biden would win - he predicted wrong.

Maybe he hedged his bets by predicting Biden would be the next president of the United Sates.

[BobL]

The Democrats ‘dropped’ their 1968 candidate and the replacement did very well, nearly defeating Nixon.

The way the media works in this country, people will be saying “Biden, who’s that?” a month after he’s dropped, and we’ll be seeing “Morning in America” puff pieces on the new candidate, even if that person is Maxine Waters or AOC.

[Ann Archy]

He;s a TOTAL MORON!

[jimfree]

Johnson was “defeated” in early primaries. Actually, McCarthy scored too well in New Hampshire against Johnson’s 50 percent tally. Johnson withdrew later in the month of March.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Seems to me his model may not be sufficient to cover all the possibilities.

According to Gödel's incompleteness theorems, no model is ever sufficient to cover all the possibilities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G%C3%B6del%27s_incompleteness_theorems

[Rockingham]

Maybe its just me, but I have a hard time crediting a professor who is wearing a bad toupee, in a hair color not his own, with his eyebrows dyed to match and to hide the white and gray his years merit.