Posted on 07/05/2024 8:26:10 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Beryl barreled across the Caribbean, made landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula, and is forecast to make landfall in SE Texas.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
Local NWS Weather Brownsville TX
1000 AM CDT Update
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About 100 MI ESE of Progreso Mexico
About 680 MI ESE of Brownsville TX
Max Sustained Winds...85 MPH
Movement...WNW at 16 MPH
Minimum Pressure...980 MB
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the storm center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
Named after a trunk and J6 hating judge. I’ve never met a “Beryl” even once. Is the next hurricane “Chutkin or Merchan”
So, diminished to Category 1?
Yes, over the Yucatan Peninsula. It will likely diminish to TS, then regain strength in the Gulf of Mexico.
The forecast is for wind and rain. Got it.
I went to high school with a Beryl (in the ‘70s)... she was also a Disney World Mickey Mouse for a while... and a nice human being despite that :).
It will hit Louisiana................
Most Texans are rooting for it. We never get rain from July to August.
They’re so sad it’s almost gone
I’ll sometimes pick up a Beryl, although I pefer an M416 or an UMP....
Praying that since it is visiting Texas anyway, that it will come to DFW for a while.
There was a Tropical Storm Beryl in 2012 and Hurricane Beryl in 2018. Those storms were not significant enough to warrant retiring the name, which otherwise recycles every six years.
I know two Jews that are named Beryl.
Right _now_ the model spread has landfall anywhere between a point just south of Brownsville and all the way to Port O'Conner -- roughly 170 miles of coastline... actually, that's wrong... the ICON model (not pictured) has Beryl coming in all the way up at Galveston, so that's really almost 300 miles of coastline involved.
On top of that, the slower the turn, the greater the time for re-intensification... though I guess the good news is that we're still looking at a minimal hurricane IF the landfall is where the NHC thinks it's going... but watch out for a Cat 2 storm if that ICON model turns out to be right.
Here's that ICON image via Joe Bastardi on X:
Your guess is as good as the Nation Hurricane Center's. Well, almost.
This lack of ability to predict these things is partially why I don't believe all of this global warming (we're all gonna die!) stuff. Hurricane paths and strengths show that they don't have an understanding of the system.
Contrast this to the folks predicting the total eclipse of the sun on April 8th. They were right down to the minute and down to the mile because they DO understand their system.
Thanks for your always valuable analysis. Texas coastal dwellers should remain alert.
What do the numbers on this map mean??
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_tracks_latest.png
Hours
Yes, have it swing a little bit west through north Texas. Although I’m hearing a little bit of thunder (or maybe left over fireworks) now.
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