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It is absolutely certain that Biden will play up the official job creation numbers under his administration in the debate. There are several reasons why that's misleading.

First of all Biden counts a huge jobs rebound back in 2021, when the economy was still reopening from Covid, as something he did. The rebound was already well underway in 2020. That's millions of jobs right there.

Second, there are two jobs surveys conducted each month, the Establishment survey and the Household survey. It is only the Establishment survey showing all these jobs being created in the last year or two. The Household jobs survey is showing something much different. The Establishment survey does this statistical "adjustment" known as the birth/death adjustment, that shows millions of jobs being created that aren't really there.

Economists and Wall Street analysts don't believe the Establishment numbers.

the gap between the always upward sloping (and market moving) Establishment Survey and the flatlined Household Survey, which hasn't made a new high since late 2023 and is back to where it was last summer, is now a stunning 9 million, the biggest on record!

Bloomberg's chief economist Anna Wong agreed, and not only that, but she also agreed with our recurring contention that the Household Survey is far more accurate...

May’s jobs report presented contradictory views of the labor market, as we expected. The establishment survey shows robust gains in nonfarm payrolls — yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%. We believe the latter currently offers a closer approximation of reality than payrolls, as BLS’ model for estimating business births and deaths – which added 231,000 jobs to the nonfarm-payrolls print in May – is lagging the reality of surging establishment closures and falling business formation. We think the underlying pace of current job gains is likely less than 100,000 per month.

Third, even the BLS shows full time jobs dropping by more than 1 million and being replaced by part time jobs.

Consider this: the BLS reports that in May 2024, the US had 133.3 million full-time jobs and 28.0 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in May 2023 the US had 134.4 million full-time jobs, or more than a million jobs than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by more than 1.5 million since May 2023

Can Trump explain all this in an understandable way? It would require having a prepared, memorized response, quoting what people like Wong said, etc. That's not one of his strengths. He prefers to just speak off the cuff. If he just calls the jobs numbers "fake" the media and Biden will ridicule him and say how badly he lost the argument.

1 posted on 06/20/2024 9:05:03 AM PDT by lasereye
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To: lasereye

Polls need to be inline with crappants voter fraud machine.


2 posted on 06/20/2024 9:09:23 AM PDT by HYPOCRACY (Brandon's pronouns: Xi/Hur)
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To: lasereye

They are going to cheat again in pretty much the same way they did last time. Why wouldn’t they?


3 posted on 06/20/2024 9:09:35 AM PDT by cdcdawg (Pointing out hypocrisy is meaningless to the Left; they don't have principles, they have goals. )
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To: All

Hillary’s polling was always ahead in the Trump matchup
plus Obama put all 17 intel agencies at the disposal of her campaign
(tax subsidized intel is there to protect Americans’ safety and security).
.


4 posted on 06/20/2024 9:09:59 AM PDT by Liz (This then is how we should pray: Our Father who art in heaven, Hallowed be thy name . )
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To: lasereye

Charlie Kirk noted that the Fox “poll” cited Biden leading in rural America by 52-48. Under no circumstances is this possible. Remember, this is the same Fox News that threw Arizona to Senile the night of the election right after its polls closed which Senile “won” the state by 10,000 votes or far less than one percent of the total.


5 posted on 06/20/2024 9:10:01 AM PDT by laconic
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To: lasereye

Hey, it’s Dementia Joe-mentum!


6 posted on 06/20/2024 9:10:24 AM PDT by irishjuggler
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To: lasereye

Oh, a faux snooze survey/poll. Polls are used to help sway the many clueless voters out there. And there are plenty. Polls can pound sand.


7 posted on 06/20/2024 9:10:46 AM PDT by rktman (Destroy America from within? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this💩? 🚫💉! 🇮🇱👍!)
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To: lasereye

His performance at the G7 must have really made an impression. /s


9 posted on 06/20/2024 9:14:29 AM PDT by mbrfl
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To: lasereye

“More trust Biden to do a better job on the future of American democracy”

Talk about a very squishy, impossible-to-measure, feel-good nonsense metric.

The Democrats want a national popular vote, to abolish the Electoral College, to abolish the filibuster, to add new states, to expand the Supreme Court with Dems, excoriates the independent SCOTUS, to set term limits on SCOTUS Justices, uses unbridled lawfare against political opponents, uses the FBI to go after people at school board meetings and after doctors exposing the lies of tranny “care”.

Everything on that list is 100% anti-democratic - more accurately anti-Republic. But maybe one out of a thousand Americans know or understand what they are doing.

If “threat to democracy” arises, how would Trump respond?


10 posted on 06/20/2024 9:14:34 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (“When exposing a crime is treated like a crime, you are being ruled by criminals” – Edward Snowden)
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To: lasereye
The STEAL is on, including the FAKE polls required to prop-up the STEAL.

CADAVER leads the proven successful former president!

WAKE UP, America. YOU ARE BEING PLAYED.

ANYONE who believes that the poopy diaper stumbling slurring TRAITOR PUPPET mannequin/CADAVER LEADS the successful and SHARP former president NEEDS THEIR HEAD EXAMINED.

America wants 15,000,000 MORE ILLEGALS including TERRORISTS, PEDOPHILES AND MURDERERS, along with TONS more fentanyl to KILL MOSTLY YOUNG WHITE AMERICANS as well as another 20-30% INFLATIONARY INCREASE over the course of a SECOND TERM for the DEMENTED TRAITOR WHO IS LIKELY TO START WORLD WAR III??

Riiigghht...

11 posted on 06/20/2024 9:15:01 AM PDT by CivilWarBrewing (Get off my back for my usage of CAPS, especially you snowflake males! MAN UP!)
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To: lasereye

Baby Murdoch pays well for the “correct” result


17 posted on 06/20/2024 9:19:43 AM PDT by BigEdLB
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To: lasereye

Let’s see. Corporate news has a vested (financial) interest in people coming to their Websites or watching their TV programs. They are for-profit organizations and need to attract advertisement dollars. In a high profile election year like 2024, it’s in their best interest to vacillate back and forth on who is ahead in the polls. This affects continued interest, clicks and tuning in by the greatest number of people. Translation: it’s in corporate news best interest to skew polls right up to the election so as to maintain interest by the greatest number of people, so as to keep advertisers and the bottom line happy.


18 posted on 06/20/2024 9:19:44 AM PDT by JesusIsLord
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To: lasereye
This is what Daily Caller is reporting this morning:

New Election Forecast Paints An Ugly Picture For Joe Biden In November

"While there is still a long way to go until the November presidential election, former President Donald Trump looks like the favorite to win the White House in 2024."

23 posted on 06/20/2024 9:22:28 AM PDT by Bon of Babble (You Say You Want a Revolution?)
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To: lasereye
ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ha ha... ha ha.."Positive views of the economy.." HA HA HAHA haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!


26 posted on 06/20/2024 9:23:09 AM PDT by Mr. K (No consequence of repealing Obamacare is worse than Obamacare)
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To: lasereye

Nobody should get their knickers in a twist.

That is one cooked poll.


27 posted on 06/20/2024 9:23:20 AM PDT by mewzilla (Never give up; never surrender!)
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To: lasereye

Sample question:

In the 2024 presidential election, who do you prefer?

A. President Joe Biden

B. Convicted Felon Donald Trump

Or something like that...


35 posted on 06/20/2024 9:36:13 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (Repeal the Patriot Act; Abolish the DHS; reform FBI top to bottom!)
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To: lasereye
The Des Moines Register, which has a very good polling record of accuracy in Iowa for decades, released a poll this week showing Trump +18 in the Hawkeye state.

And now, Fox "News" wants us to believe Biden is winning nationally by two points? Not buying it. Fox polls are total garbage and have been for a long time.
36 posted on 06/20/2024 9:37:11 AM PDT by Dan in Wichita
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To: lasereye

How heavy did Rove oversample Dems?


38 posted on 06/20/2024 9:38:49 AM PDT by bray (It's not racist to be racist against races you do not like.)
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To: lasereye

OOOHhhhhh! A POLL!

Is this one an infallible oracle of all truth, or just manipulated, manipulative fake news?


42 posted on 06/20/2024 9:44:13 AM PDT by NorthMountain (... the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed)
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To: lasereye

Maybe Trump should hire you?


43 posted on 06/20/2024 9:46:22 AM PDT by ohioman
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To: lasereye
Backfire --

This push poll could be rather good news. It could be just enough for the Dims to keep Biden as their candidate; someone who is a far weaker choice than the younger, more alert Whitmer, Pritzker, or Newsome.
44 posted on 06/20/2024 9:48:08 AM PDT by EliRoom8
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