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Ignore The Polls. Republicans Have A Major Voter Turnout Problem
The Federalist ^ | June 12, 2024 | Shawn Fleetwood

Posted on 06/12/2024 3:33:21 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

If you read nothing but posts from conservative influencers on X, you’d be convinced that Donald Trump has already won the 2024 election.

The source of this sensationalized optimism comes from public polling data, which shows the former president with leads in key battleground states he needs to win this November. Some surveys also seemingly indicate that traditionally “blue states” like Virginia and Minnesota are in play.

With numbers like these and Biden’s approval rating sinking faster than Rachel Levine in a swimming pool, there’s no way Trump can lose, or so the conventional thinking goes.

While it’s certainly possible the polls are accurate, the outcome of recent elections should give conservatives reason to pump the brakes on celebrating before any ballots have been cast. Case in point: A special election held in Ohio’s 6th Congressional District on Tuesday.

The matchup between Democrat Michael Kripchak and Republican Michael Rulli wasn’t expected to be a close race. According to the Associated Press, former GOP Rep. Bill Johnson — who represented the district until his resignation earlier this year — “won his last four elections by more than 30 percentage points.” Trump similarly won the district by roughly 30 points during the 2020 contest.

While Rulli defeated Kripchak in Tuesday’s matchup and expanded Republicans’ thin House majority, the election was much closer than originally predicted. Preliminary results indicate Rulli won the race by 9.4 points — a more than 20-point shift in Democrats favor.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bloggers; frauddenial; frauddeniers; kripchak; rulli; shawnfleetwood; tds
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To: central_va
In ‘20 Trump had huge coattails despite the steal.

Sorry, I meant in 2022 midterms, we were promised a "Red Wave" which turned out to be barely a ripple.

41 posted on 06/12/2024 5:31:26 PM PDT by fso301
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

42 posted on 06/12/2024 5:39:04 PM PDT by RasterMaster ("Towering genius disdains a beaten path." - Abraham Lincoln)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

If Trump is not on the ballot, I’m likely not voting.


43 posted on 06/12/2024 5:40:08 PM PDT by SamAdams76 (6,575,474 Truth | 87,429,044 Twitter)
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To: CFW
"Rulli’s support was over and above the margin of cheating. Democrats weren’t expecting that and didn’t plan for a sufficient number of fake ballots. Rulli was probably supposed to lose by 1 or 2 percent."

That's asinine. This is an R+16 district, in which Democrats (rightfully) didn't even bother spending chump change on their candidate. Aside from typical GOP complacency in a special election, nobody has come up with any plausible reason why it wasn't a blowout; even the primary, though hard-fought, was apparently amicable. The margin doesn't matter anyway -- a win is a win.

It probably wouldn't have helped even if they Rats did invest heavily yesterday, and money won't help them buy this seat in November either. But to declare that this race was expected to be even remotely close, nevermind a loss, reflects a lack of knowledge of anything about this district.

44 posted on 06/12/2024 5:43:31 PM PDT by PermaRag (Joo Biden is not my President)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
"I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how."
-- Josef Stalin

45 posted on 06/12/2024 5:43:46 PM PDT by Paal Gulli
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To: All

With GOP voters now changed to Independent, a GOP candidate who does not get their vote does not face a GOP turnout problem.

They are no longer GOP. If they don’t turn out, it is not a GOP turnout problem.


46 posted on 06/12/2024 5:52:30 PM PDT by Owen (.)
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To: God luvs America

So far Lara Trump has been worthless. The RNC is more concerned with hiring consultants and having meetings in 5 star resorts.


47 posted on 06/12/2024 5:52:57 PM PDT by rrrod (6)
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To: HamiltonJay

People who try to write massive national trending out of individual district special elections are just crazy.


Exactly!

From what I understand the special election for the 6th district was the only thing on the ballot. One-item special elections have notoriously low turn-outs. That’s just a fact.

Whether it’s a lack of GOP messaging and interaction, or voters in the district just assuming the conservative candidate will win since they have always done so and their vote isn’t needed, we don’t know. That has no bearing on whether or not they will turn out enthusiastically in November.

Trump has a long coat-tail and will carry the down ticket candidates in conservatives districts as long as the GOP makes sure to have eyes and attorneys in every district to stop the fraud.

Rulli won by approx. 9.5%. When democrats win by that margin, they call it a mandate.


48 posted on 06/12/2024 5:56:10 PM PDT by CFW
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To: central_va

Trump received 11 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016. He is the only sitting President to receive more votes the second time and lose. The race was stolen. Trump won 18 of 19 bellwether counties.


49 posted on 06/12/2024 6:00:10 PM PDT by kabar
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Just make sure you go out and vote. So many people have died to save this great country. If you can not get off your ass to vote then fu*k you loser. No excuses. I’m 66 and I can tell you this is the most important election of my lifetime.


50 posted on 06/12/2024 6:01:12 PM PDT by willk (Local news media. Just as big an enemy to this country as national media)
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To: Fledermaus
The author buys his panties pre-waded.

He's not lying.

The Democrats have largely become the party of minorities, women, college educated whites, and the elderly. These last three groups have the best turnout rates, especially college educated whites and elderly.

The now working-class populist Republican party has a greater number of low-propensity voters, many of whom only show up when Trump is on the ticket as evidenced by the dismal 2018 and 2022 midterms.

51 posted on 06/12/2024 6:01:28 PM PDT by Drew68
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To: HamiltonJay

Look at the crap the congressional Republicans have shoved down the throats of their base voters time and again. They are worthless as a bucket of goat snot politically.

But people are eager to vote for Trump in November or against BiteMe. Right now Trump may have little to no coattails down ticket because the congressional Republicans have destroyed the brand.


52 posted on 06/12/2024 6:05:06 PM PDT by sarge83
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

DO NOT BET YOUR PAYCHECK ON YOUR WORDS, PAL.


53 posted on 06/12/2024 6:13:48 PM PDT by ridesthemiles (not giving up on TRUMP---EVER)
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To: SaxxonWoods

No, there’s a distinct lack of enthusiasm this time. A LOT of folks are thinking the steal is in. We’re trying to turn it around.


54 posted on 06/12/2024 6:14:35 PM PDT by BikerJoe
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To: BikerJoe

Interesting, people are fired up here. But you would know better, you are dealing with much more population data than this backwater. I wish you good luck and thanks for your hard work.


55 posted on 06/12/2024 6:22:35 PM PDT by SaxxonWoods (Are you ready for Black Lives MAGA? It's coming.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Republicans have a democrat ballot counter problem.


56 posted on 06/12/2024 6:42:00 PM PDT by No Party Affiliation
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Dems already got the illegals crossing over the border to vote for them, they are holding onto the ballots til they need them. People are enthused to vote for Trump, others, not so much, but if Trump tells them to come vote they will


57 posted on 06/12/2024 6:44:29 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

This is correct, Republican whiners look for any reason not to vote. They prefer to just complain.

Meanwhile Democrat moderates and progressives tow the line religiously, once the primary is over.


58 posted on 06/12/2024 6:44:50 PM PDT by nbenyo (C)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

The GOP guy is heir to a 2-store grocery chain. Maybe disgruntled customers showed up in force.


59 posted on 06/12/2024 6:48:35 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room)
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To: BikerJoe
A LOT of folks are thinking the steal is in.

Yeah, their efforts at suppressing turnout really piss me off.

"Those wiley Democrats are just going to steal it!"

Why even bother showing up then? Should've just given the nomination to Nikki Haley if that's the case. Let her have it stolen from.

60 posted on 06/12/2024 6:56:13 PM PDT by Drew68
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