Posted on 05/28/2024 5:30:19 AM PDT by SJackson
As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducts another assault in the north of Gaza, they face significant criticism from Western officials and analysts who are asking why the IDF is repeatedly going into areas they have already cleared and conducting further operations. Critics claim this behavior reflects a flaw in operational design, or is even proof that Israel’s campaign against Hamas has failed. The flaw, however, lies in their own assumptions.
These critics are looking at IDF tactics through the lens of Western counterinsurgency (COIN), the doctrine that U.S. and European militaries applied in the failed campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. In the “global war on terror,” Western tactics were to seize a chunk of territory and clear it of enemies through military force. The plan was then to hold the territory through forward operating bases (or FOBs) and try to conduct alternative governance in those areas while providing security. The system of FOBs meant that our enemies, embedded in the local civilian population, always knew where we were and what routes we were likely to use. They could mortar, rocket, and IED us at will. It was a recipe for endless violence and huge numbers of casualties.
In the case of the 2023-24 Gaza war, Western critics have almost comically misunderstood what the Israeli military is trying to do. The flaw in Western analysis is always the same: “We wouldn’t do it that way.” Yet the IDF has absolutely no intention of using the clear-hold-build COIN tactics the West tried in Afghanistan and Iraq. Why would it? Those tactics were an unmitigated disaster in both campaigns, which ended in humiliating defeats at the hands of technologically inferior armies.
COIN tactics are time consuming and costly. They also require huge troop levels to “hold” ground, for years if not indefinitely. Assuming Western doctrinal ratios of 1 soldier to every 40 civilians, Gaza would require an enduring deployment of 50,000 combat troops, before we even consider enabling logistics, engineers, artillery and the like. The economic costs of mobilizing the IDF’s reservist army on an enduring basis would be astronomical. Such tactics would also be insanely wasteful, since Israel has a safe base on the Israeli side of the Gaza border, and can therefore enjoy the luxury of only committing to intelligence-led operations at times and on ground of their choosing—advantages that the West did not have in either Iraq or Afghanistan.
So why is the IDF repeating operations in areas that it has already cleared—for example, in the Shifa hospital, or in ongoing operations in Jabalia, which they struck from the air at the start of the conflict. Critics call this approach “mowing the grass,” a phrase adopted in the West to describe the failure to deploy sufficient troops in Iraq or Afghanistan, leading to repeated clearances of the same areas after they were thought to have been “cleared.” I contend that the IDF is trying something completely different, and it makes sense.
Israel’s strategic aims are defeating Hamas and securing the Gaza border with Israel to prevent a repeat of Oct. 7. “Never again is now” isn’t just an empty slogan. IDF operational design is built around making sure Oct. 7 can never happen again. Absent the possibility of any enduring political solution, that is simply what success looks like.
In military terms, Hamas will not be destroyed, which means rendered totally combat ineffective. Hamas is too numerous and too entrenched within Gaza—where every male of fighting age is a potential future Hamas fighter. Their cellular structure makes them hard to target, and when a commander is killed, they have shown the flexibility to promote the next man up. They are also mainly backing away from a fight in Gaza, relying on booby traps, IEDs, and small arms engagements before melting away from decisive engagements. This makes them hard to kill.
Ireland, Norway and Spain will not be receiving any of my tourist money.
I think they see it very clearly, and that is why they are ignoring his calls to stop.
In this case they realize Biden's calls for them to stop are all predicated to benefit Biden's reelection bid.
Yeah, cuz Bibi isn’t playing the hand wringing game. He admits mistakes are made in war and then goes in to win again.
None of those women and children killed yesterday would be dead if Hamas had stayed home on October 7th.
Sorry, I should have used //SARC// designation. I agree with you totally.
Islam has FOBs in America and throughout western civilization. They are called mosques.
Oh okay. 🙂👍
IMHO, Israel is foolish protecting the socalled “civilian Arabs” most of whom supported, aided and abetted the 07 October mass-murder raid on Israel. no other country on earth has ever spent so much time and effort (and lives and money) protecting the enemy.
dumb as that is, the IDF is and will win in time
The crux of the article:
“Yet the IDF has absolutely no intention of using the clear-hold-build COIN tactics the West tried in Afghanistan and Iraq.”
Tried? Sorry, but used to great effect in Iraq.
Wasted on AFGN.
In Iraq it took the US and Coalition forces 12 years to defeat an insurgency and a half dozen terrorist organizations to the point where Iraq is now a peaceful self-governing representative republic, not engaged in warfare with its neighbors or experiencing continual armed strife and conflict.
Attempting to get out in front of criticism.
COIN works -for some.
Good point. Trump did a great thing rubbing out ISIS.
Iraq is an advanced civilized state. They had one of the highest standard of living in the '80s under Saddam Hussein.
That's not really the case with Hamas in Gaza or the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Excellent article, well worth the complete read. Thanks for posting.
Sadly, quite true.
What will end the war is killing all of the Hamas commanders and all of their troops - and most of the civilians who are providing logistic support.
That is about 400,000 people by my crude estimates.
You want an end to the war? That is what it will require.
COIN had one too many elements: the “build” part should play no part in war. After unconditional surrender, yes. Before that, no.
Colonel, USAF JAGC (Ret)
Only the Russians managed to do something like that in Chechnya.
Israel cannot survive the sanctions.
Probably not.
Maybe we should be doing something to prevent any more sanctions against Israel.
In any case, the war can only end when one side is destroyed. We still get to pick which side. It looks like the prevailing factions in the oligarchy that owns America will be targeting Israel for destruction. That is a bad deal for the rest of us.
bkmk
Spain, Norway, Ireland Formally Recognise Palestinian StatehoodSpain’s socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez led a group of European states in recognising Palestine as a state on Tuesday, saying the move was a step towards focussing “all our efforts to implement a two-state solution and make it a reality”.
Spain, Norway, and Ireland recognised Palestine as a state on Tuesday, making official by writ the announcement made by the group last week. The Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, was the first among the group to move on the issue this morning, claiming his position was that giving Palestine international recognition would “help Israelis and Palestinians achieve peace.”
He said Palestine includes “West Bank and Gaza connected by a corridor”, and has its capital and “legitimate government of the Palestine National Authority” in East Jerusalem.
[...]
And so it begins....
There were about 140 nations prepared to vote in favor of Palestinian statehood at the United Nations. Standing alone, the United States cast a veto in the UN Security Council against the otherwise unanimous decision to officially take up the issue which was certain to pass.
And now three European nations, two members of NATO, have formally recognized Palestine as a nation state. In beating up on Gaza for eight months, Israel has achieved the once unachievable, official intternational recognition of Palestine as a nation state.
Good luck with that. Our Elite Universities are controlled by Marxists. They've been able to brainwash our youth. We have a pro-Hamas wing in Congress.
The loosing and winning was not about FOB operations. It was due to both civilian politics and military leadership above the battlefield. The US during the GWOT had to project power across two oceans and make agreements with local governments for its operations. That put limits on how it could operate. In 2006 in Iraq, there was the Anbar Awakening which lead to Al-Qaeda getting driven out of Anbar province and eventually leading to stabilizing Iraq, which is not the same as ending all the fighting that went on for another decade. In Afghanistan neither the Bush or Obama administrations dealt with Pakistan's support of the Taliban and playing all sides against each other.
Israel does not have to make deals with dozens of countries and cross two oceans to fight Hamas. They told the IDF to drive over a fence go into Gaza and wipe them out. Fox is projecting the same goals, issues and limitations the US had in Iraq and Afghanistan on to Israel, which is fighting Hamas under completely different circumstances.
wanna bet?
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