Israel Is Succeeding in Gaza-Western analysts think otherwise, because they are seeing Israel’s war through the lens of America’s own failed counterinsurgency doctrines BY

Tablet ^ | MAY 22, 2024 | ANDREW FOX

[SJackson]

As the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducts another assault in the north of Gaza, they face significant criticism from Western officials and analysts who are asking why the IDF is repeatedly going into areas they have already cleared and conducting further operations. Critics claim this behavior reflects a flaw in operational design, or is even proof that Israel’s campaign against Hamas has failed. The flaw, however, lies in their own assumptions.

These critics are looking at IDF tactics through the lens of Western counterinsurgency (COIN), the doctrine that U.S. and European militaries applied in the failed campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. In the “global war on terror,” Western tactics were to seize a chunk of territory and clear it of enemies through military force. The plan was then to hold the territory through forward operating bases (or FOBs) and try to conduct alternative governance in those areas while providing security. The system of FOBs meant that our enemies, embedded in the local civilian population, always knew where we were and what routes we were likely to use. They could mortar, rocket, and IED us at will. It was a recipe for endless violence and huge numbers of casualties.

In the case of the 2023-24 Gaza war, Western critics have almost comically misunderstood what the Israeli military is trying to do. The flaw in Western analysis is always the same: “We wouldn’t do it that way.” Yet the IDF has absolutely no intention of using the clear-hold-build COIN tactics the West tried in Afghanistan and Iraq. Why would it? Those tactics were an unmitigated disaster in both campaigns, which ended in humiliating defeats at the hands of technologically inferior armies.

COIN tactics are time consuming and costly. They also require huge troop levels to “hold” ground, for years if not indefinitely. Assuming Western doctrinal ratios of 1 soldier to every 40 civilians, Gaza would require an enduring deployment of 50,000 combat troops, before we even consider enabling logistics, engineers, artillery and the like. The economic costs of mobilizing the IDF’s reservist army on an enduring basis would be astronomical. Such tactics would also be insanely wasteful, since Israel has a safe base on the Israeli side of the Gaza border, and can therefore enjoy the luxury of only committing to intelligence-led operations at times and on ground of their choosing—advantages that the West did not have in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

So why is the IDF repeating operations in areas that it has already cleared—for example, in the Shifa hospital, or in ongoing operations in Jabalia, which they struck from the air at the start of the conflict. Critics call this approach “mowing the grass,” a phrase adopted in the West to describe the failure to deploy sufficient troops in Iraq or Afghanistan, leading to repeated clearances of the same areas after they were thought to have been “cleared.” I contend that the IDF is trying something completely different, and it makes sense.

Israel’s strategic aims are defeating Hamas and securing the Gaza border with Israel to prevent a repeat of Oct. 7. “Never again is now” isn’t just an empty slogan. IDF operational design is built around making sure Oct. 7 can never happen again. Absent the possibility of any enduring political solution, that is simply what success looks like.

In military terms, Hamas will not be destroyed, which means rendered totally combat ineffective. Hamas is too numerous and too entrenched within Gaza—where every male of fighting age is a potential future Hamas fighter. Their cellular structure makes them hard to target, and when a commander is killed, they have shown the flexibility to promote the next man up. They are also mainly backing away from a fight in Gaza, relying on booby traps, IEDs, and small arms engagements before melting away from decisive engagements. This makes them hard to kill.

[SJackson]

Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

[DeplorablePaul]

Notice the subtle shift in terms when discussing Gaza. Now they’re being called Palestinians. Nice try.

[nopardons]

BTTT

[MinorityRepublican]

Notice the subtle shift in terms when discussing Gaza. Now they’re being called Palestinians. Nice try.

Nice try. The war is in Gaza. Nothing is happening in the West Bank (other than a couple of skirmishes and raids)

[Texas Fossil]

The Magic Answer reposted Cheryl E @CherylWroteIt (May 9, 2024)

https://twitter.com/CherylWroteIt/status/1788590678324158579

Thats it. That’s the tweet

Bibi “Never Again is NOW!”
-
AMEN!

[larryjohnson]

I did not know about Tablet. Now I have it, thanks

[Judge Bean]

Biden’s plan would be to kill a bunch of folks, and then leave all of the equipment and weapons in Rafah. Declare victory, while the locals are hanging off of the aircraft as they leave, and wave a signed agreement with Hamas to not invade again. Why can’t the Israelis see that?

[PGalt]

https://internationalman.com/articles/why-islam-will-likely-win-its-forever-war-against-the-west/

Interesting read.

[gitmo]

Oh, Tablet is a great resource.

[gitmo]

At the same time, the IDF has methodically destroyed buildings to create a 1-kilometer buffer zone around the Gaza border—a measure that if enforced would indeed prevent a repeat of Oct. 7.

I think land mines would be effective there.

[gitmo]

Thank you for sharing. That is an informative and interesting article.

[Red Badger]

Israel Is Succeeding in Gaza - Western analysts think otherwise, because they ......

WANT ISRAEL TO FAIL......................

[SteelPSUGOP]

The author does a good job of being clear, the people of Gaza want Hamas. They are Hamas.

Like German Nazis, they need to be taught a lesson they and their next generations will not forget.

[Zhang Fei]

The long-term solution, convert or die, is not possible, hemmed in as it is by both internal and external constraints. Maybe in a free-for-all when US power in the region is non-existent, no outside power replaces it and Israel somehow becomes strong and self-sufficient enough economically and in terms of military hardware. Until then, a really comprehensive lawn-mowing operation is the best it can do.

And the destruction of entire terror clans is a good thing. Zealotry is at least partly hereditary. Part of the reason post-war Germany and Japan were tame? 12% and 5% of their populations were killed off, including the most fanatical soldiers, many of whom never got to pass on their genes.

[edwinland]

Superb article. Tablet has brilliant jounalism.

[Candor7]

Of course Israel is succeeding.

The Deity of the Israeli People has become extraordinarily active since last Oct 7th, YHWH now walks the earth in Judea Galilee and Samaria, as of old.

People forget that the Jewish People have been communicating with their G-d in the same language for over 3000 years.

This context has been forgotten in the West. America must not forget.We are a nation of G-d and will be free as long as we are so.

Of course the Israelis will emerge victorious....it can be no other way with the help of YHWH as of old when he protected the assembled tribes of Israel:

[DCBryan1]

At the same time, the IDF has methodically destroyed buildings to create a 1-kilometer buffer zone around the Gaza border—a measure that if enforced would indeed prevent a repeat of Oct. 7. I think land mines would be effective there.

Nope, they need to explode a peaceful nuclear weapon 1000m below Gaza City, Khan Younis, and Rafah in order to destroy all tunnels in Gaza and announce to the world that IDF is serious about dismantiling the tunnels and Hamas. Once they are either buried or forced to fight above ground, the war will end quickly.

[MinorityRepublican]

they have shown the flexibility to promote the next man up.

The IDF can take out Hamas commanders and half of their troops.

But that won't end the war.

[Uncle Miltie]

Agree. Israel’s war aims are too small.

The correct strategic objective that will save the most number of lives on both sides over time is the total destruction of Gazan civilization and unconditional surrender. That has a chance of leaving a lasting impression on Gazans for generations, so that Grandmothers tell grandchildren for generations that fighting the Jews is ALWAYS a bad idea.

Like Germany with 12% of its population dead and all cities destroyed.

Like Japan with nuked cities.

Total war and mass destruction with unconditional surrerender ... WORKS!