A former PLA soldier hired by Russians gives a reality check on Russia-Ukraine war

YouTube ^ | 5/23/2024 | Li Jianwei

[The Old Hoosier]

"The Russians are stubborn and want us to continue fighting...Bro, this war is unwinnable."

[Monterrosa-24]

Thank you for posting that map.

My wife takes a certain pride in having zero Russian blood, but she has a wild mix. Her father was Georgian, and her mother was Ukrainian. Her father’s mother was Armenian but was born in Georgia.

Most of her family and friends in Alchevsk were Ukrainians but were Russian-speakers. Out in many of the small agricultural villages in the Donbas, Ukrainian is still spoken. My wife’s maternal grandmother spoke an intergradient between Russian and Ukrainian.

[BroJoeK]

PIF: "So in the first graphic, are we to assume the Chinese are laying claim to the Bering Sea and Alaska?"

Naw... it only shows what's considered to be the "First Island Chain" which is said to greatly aggrieve CCP China, even beyond suggestions of Taiwan's de facto independence.

The First Island Chain would make a blockade of China's coastline relatively easy, and that's why, so it's said, the CCP wants to break the chain in order to assert its regional and global dominance.

PIF: "When they finally get to their duty stations, they will be vastly inferior to both the Chinese and Russian heavy breakers."

I remember first reading about the superiority of Old Soviet icebreakers when I was a young man, 50+ years ago.
Back then, the Lenin was a nuclear-powered icebreaker commissioned in 1959, and they've built many more since.

In the meantime, the US has never had a remotely close equivalent, and today's USS Healy is less than half the displacement of Russia's Arktika.

I sort of doubt if the US intends to seriously battle the Russians or Chinese in the Arctic.

Russia's nuclear powered Arktika vs. USCGC Healy (at North Pole):

[PIF]

USCGC Healy is a medium breaker. The only Polar (heavy) is the USCGC Polar Star (WAGB-10). This is about heavies. Polar Star does 3.5mph through 6 feet of ice. And not at all through thicker ice. Also the duct tape and bailing wire add to its structural stability.

USCGC Healy is the United States’ largest and most technologically advanced icebreaker ( in the US) - Russia’s 50 Let Podedy and Project 22220 breakers are all way more advanced the the Healy - they even have saunas, squash courts etc. not to mention 2 nuclear reactors. They do 2.3 mph through 9 feet of ice. Turbo-generators were built in Ukraine.

Excerpts:
https://alaskapublic.org/2024/05/07/the-u-s-was-supposed-to-get-keys-to-a-new-heavy-icebreaker-this-year-instead-construction-is-years-late-as-costs-soar/

The Coast Guard’s plan to build three heavy icebreakers is five years behind schedule and the price has ballooned to $5.1 billion from an initial estimate of less than $2 billion ...

“You’re saying that they are 67% design completion after five years?” Gimenez asked.

“Yes,” she said.

And then, you know, by the way, the ship that they chose for the parent design has actually never been constructed,” Thomas said. “And that’s why the detailed design has taken so long.”

[ That’s because the hull design is so unique and untested .. further will take years of sea trails before they become operational. ]

[ We could have bought several from Finland for the price of one of these pieces of ... and would have been operational now Sometimes made in America is not the best option to get the most bang for the buck. ]

The vice admiral said the buck stopped with him and he pledged that construction would begin in earnest by December. It’ll be up to his successor to carry through, though, since he plans to retire this summer.

[ even then they hedge and wiggle ]

[Red6]

Isn't it weird that a Russian social media site allows for contradicting points of view, i.e. they don't delete the posts nor close down the account?

Have you noticed, that terms like free speech (still used a little), government transparency (disappeared), watchdog media (disappeared) and freedom of expression (disappeared) have fallen away from our vocabulary?

Try doing a FOIA today, it's a joke.

(regards the link) I do not know who this guy is or where he is from truthfully. It's just some dude posting things.

I provided a link for what our government assumed as being the ground truth and they base that on empirical data provided by the Ukrainians most likely.

BDA and casualties are tracked by all sides, but today these numbers are fudged for the public because these can change attitudes and perceptions of success and failure, the public's support for the war, if the Administration is perceived as having failed or succeeded.

Our government flat out lies, and they do it constantly, our MSM lies all the time. When our government is caught lying, it's never deemed mis/dis information, propaganda, and there are never any consequences for those who lied. We do this for a lot of things, but in every case, there are still people in government that have the real numbers, because these matter. They tell you something, and drive course of action development, and other future decision making. Would you want your oncologist to use made up numbers in his decision making? Would you want the person managing your invenstments using made up numbers in his decision making? Give me an example of where you would want anyone using made up numbers to make desicions on anything which may impact you? Why would people use made up numbers or believe them? It makes them feel good and they want to believe this. That's also why things like a Nigerian Scam work to this day? Millions of people have been defrauded using this scam, it's been all over the news, but it still works. People want to believe.

These were the real numbers that our government used: https://www.newsweek.com/2023/05/05/read-leaked-secret-intelligence-documents-ukraine-vladimir-putin-1794656.html#slideshow/2222852 (flip through the slides). And these numbers were substantially less than what our MSM was presenting to the public as the truth, repeating relentlessly, and had pundits talking about (a lie repeated enough)...

The Russians went in and had some problems. I won't speculate as to the cause (for another post), but that's a fact. They were also on the offense which is generally more casualty intense. In the meantime you've had Ukrainian counter offensives and had the Russians clean up their act. The true numbers today are anyones guess because we're just fed horse $hit. However, I suspect, that the ratio in casulaties has actually tightneded (become more narrow), not broadened.

But, if this makes you feel better, go for it: https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/ (of course, no mention of Ukrainian casualties).

[Red6]

You do know why the icebreaker issue matters, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Sea_Route

https://maritime-executive.com/article/russia-claims-new-record-for-cargo-on-the-northern-sea-route#:~:text=President%20Vladimir%20Putin%20has%20named,110%20million%20tons%20by%202030.

The Northern route is shorter, which means less fuel for cargo ships, shorter travel times. It’s now open year around. But it requires some serious ice breaking.

Of course those not friendly with Russia don’t get to use this route.

This may be a moot point, because we don’t need these icebreakers, not like the Russians do. I suspect that a Northwest passage is far more complex and difficult to pull off (not realistic). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwest_Passage

Just because they build something bigger doesn’t mean we need to one up them. We already have billions worth of ships that are “brand new” (Litoral Combat Ship) sitting at docks being canabalized and rusting.

[BroJoeK]

Redmen4ever: "For all the progress democratic governments and market-oriented economics have made in the past hundred years, we’re not home free.
In addition to the geopolitical threats facing us, we have the rise of a radical left within the democratic nations of the world."

I doubt if the human race will ever be "home free", since the world is chock full of rent-seekers, little Hitler wannabees and ordinary criminals in politics, all of whom must be kept in check and under control.
Analogous to infections in our physical body, when our natural immune system is not always strong enough to defeat them.
And that's not even considering the work of insanely destructive ideologies.

So nothing is taken for granted, freedom is never free and often comes at great risk and costs in blood and treasure.

Redmen4ever: "The declaration of victory by the neo-cons with Francis Fukuyama’s End of History was, at best, premature."

Fukuyama's 1992 "End of History" was based on the collapse of Communism and the end of the Old Soviet Union.
Since history itself is largely the history of conflicts and with the end of Communism, Hegel's dialectic was complete and so, in theory, there'd be no more conflict to make into history.

Turns out, (surprise!) that communism itself was nothing more than a facade, or mask, worn by human nature to disguise its more basic (and evil) impulses, and without the mask of Communism, human nature reverted to its more basic forms -- Tsarist Russian and Imperial Chinese empire building -- creating, maintaining and expanding prisons of conquered nations.

So now history has returned with a vengeance, and we will have to deal with it, hopefully, with more success and less cost in blood and treasure than during the 20th century.

The New Axis of Evil Dictators -- just four nations, China, Russia, Iran and NoKo -- comprises:

1. 22% of the Earth's habitable land area

2. 21% of the Earth's population

3. 23% of the Earth's GDP (PPP)

Their land area is 56% of Asia and Europe's combined land area.

Their land area compares to the US, EU, Canada and Australia combined.
Their population is almost double these Western countries.
Their GDP (PPP) is still about 1/3 less, but China is still reporting the fastest GDP growth rates of any advanced economy.

2022 Countries by GDP (PPP):

[BroJoeK]

Red5: "Dream on.
China never liked us.
They want to be number 1 (if you don’t get that you don’t know Chinese culture).
We have mutually exclusive interests.
We were a means to an end.
They were looking for a quick way to industrialize and gain access to some tech.
They wanted to train their folks in western management techniques and in the sciences and engineering in western schools."

Looks to me like we see this part of the world through pretty much the same eyes.
I've labeled the CCP's Xi-snake as leader of the New Axis of Evil Dictators, which includes Russia's Vlad the Invader, NoKo's Little Kim and Iran's Moolah Mullahs.

As our FRiend Redmen4ever noted above, we are now seeing the "return of history", with a vengeance, though not of Old Time Communism, but rather more like 19th Century (and before) Empire Builders.
Here's one way to visualize what's happening in recent years -- notice what since 2020, liberal democracies are in retreat and authoritarian governments are on the march, again.

Red5: "It’s possible to create an argument for anything, why the earth is flat.
But does the evidence which has any weight to it suggest this to be true?"

I'm not at all sure what your question is, but it appears we may well agree on some things.

[PIF]

However. In the next 20 years, E. Musk sees the possibility of establishing a one million person self sustaining base on Mars, and thereafter, getting the cost of going to Mars, per person, low enough most anybody could afford it. That would be a complete change with escape values for many people.

[BroJoeK]

Red6: "You’re still using imaginary casualty statistics as the basis for some argument of relative success?
Of course there are real statistics.
And of course our government has them.
The Ukraine has them.
The Russians have them."

I'm sure everyone knows the old rule of warfare, that an attacker needs at least three-to-one odds over defenders, because in attack men are exposed and can expect three-to-one casualties.

So, any reports which tell us that Russians in attack mode are suffering three-to-one casualties over defending Ukrainians -- that's what we expect to hear, it's conventional wisdom and normal historically.

Correspondingly, when Ukrainians were on offense last summer, we can expect to hear that they lost three-to-one more casualties than defending Russians.
If we don't hear it, we can well assume it until more reliable data is available.

We also know that, unlike Russians, there is no possibility that Ukrainians can withstand that level of casualties for very long -- and that, I think, more than anything else is why Ukrainians called off the counter-offensives last year and went back on defense.

Now, since the Battle of Bakhmut in 2023, Ukrainians have reported that Russians go absolute bat-sh*t crazy with their "Meat Wave" assaults, wherein Ukrainians can sit back with their drones, artillery, machine guns & snipers and just mow down the Russian attackers with up to 10 Russians for every one Ukrainian casualty.

Of course, overall, the ratio is not that high, because Ukrainian fire exposes their positions, and they may not always "shoot and scoot" fast enough to avoid Russia's counter-battery fires.

Still, when Russians are on offense, we can expect them to lose 3 to 1, and that ratio keeps the two sides roughly even, given their different population sizes.

In other words, Ukrainians aren't really "winning" in the long term, unless the ratio is over 3 to 1.
And the ratio is well over 3 to 1 during Russian "Meat Wave" assaults, and so, given this very gruesome accounting, for Ukraine to win, they must keep encouraging Russians to "Meat Wave" assault against them.

As both Dirty Harry and Ronald Reagan might have put it to the Russians: "Go ahead, make my day".

[Red6]

First off, it's based on “combat power” not actual raw numbers . In other words, you want a 3:1 combat power advantage.

Example: in 1986 an M1A1 was compared to a T72 a much better tank in EVERY respect. 4 M1s had far more combat power than 4 T72s.

Secondly, it's a rule of thumb at a tactical level, not an operational or strategic level. But just for fun, I applied it here some time ago.

At an operational and strategic level things change a bit. BUT, if you mess with an enemy that has a 3:1 advantage like Ukraine did, it's still a bad idea.

Russia is no equal to the US, and the Russian security alliance is even less of an equal to NATO. HOWEVER, Russia is far more powerful than Ukraine and has a population advantage of 3.5:1, a GDP advantage of more than 10:1, a manufacturing advantage that is more than 10:1 (Russia is world wide #9 and Ukraine isn't in the top 50), a military aged males advantage of more than 3.3:1, a military size advantage of more than 3.2:1. What levels this playing field quite a bit was our willingness to pump money (which also allowed Ukraine to hire a lot of mercenaries from around the world originally), military hardware and intel into Ukraine. We surly made this campaign much more costly for Russia. Also, Russia has other obligations where they must commit troops while Ukraine is focused only on Ukraine.

Based on the leaked document (https://www.newsweek.com/2023/05/05/read-leaked-secret-intelligence-documents-ukraine-vladimir-putin-1794656.html#slideshow/2222829) slide 16, the Russians were losing about 1.54 - 1.7 troops for every Ukrainian. If I had to guess, this ratio has even narrowed further since then. Russia has adapted to some of the weapons we provided, they have organized themsleves better, and Ukraine had a costly counter offensive. If you look at what Russia is doing regards mobilization (predominetly prior service - limited mobilization) and Ukraine which is becoming desperate, it also is telling.

Every US administration which starts a war always promises to stick it through, that they are in it for the long haul, but they NEVER are. Why? Our political system is a revolving door and the promises made by the predicessor are not honored. Not even formal treaties we sign and go through Congress are honored! Even our buerocracy switches out most its key leaders as new administrations come in. Once the war gets ugly and there is a personal cost to the average Joe, public opinion goes negative. Because there is no blood toll to America, the proxy wars that are starting up are not highlighted by our MSM, the economic consequences are indirect and can be explained away, and because the Euro's are carrying about 1/2 the economic cost and majority of the refugees of this war, we are willing to shoot our mouth off a little longer. It is naive to believe that we will back Ukraine indefinetly or to the level we did in 2002. But Russia is in it for the long haul.

How do you think this will end?

Thirdly, the 3:1 advantage is what's recommended to guarantee a high probability of success in the attack, but does not indicate what the ratio of casualties will be. There are many weighted variables which drive that. Usually, in the offense you take more casualties and combat operations are more complex. As combat power increases for the attacker, casualties go down (all things staying equal). A casualty estimator is used for casualties in the various types of military operations. Example: https://cove.army.gov.au/sites/default/files/02-04/03/150703-Presentation-ASLO-Training-Health-Casualty-Calculator-UNCLAS.xls In planning an operation, after we have an enemy most probable and dangerous course of action generated by the S-2/G-2, we plug in a worst case scenario for casualties to see if we can complete the mission. And then, everything ends up being different anyhow (LOL).

[Red6]

Your making me remember things I haven't touched for many years.

FM 5-0 explains it well, far better than I ever can: https://stephengates.com/ADM/FM-JUL22.pdf

This is the Army's attempt at taking something which is largely an art, and trying to make it a science.

While combat power affects casualties, casualties are estimated using a separate tool we used to call a “casualty estimator” since there are other variables that go into estimating losses. It takes many-many different variables into account both blue and red and will provide you an estimate of what to expect in KIA and WIA.

The Russians have pretty much accomplished most of what they wanted.

(1) Prevent NATO accession by Ukraine. Political

(2) Seize the majority ethnic Russian areas in Eastern Ukraine. Military

At this point, the focus is likely shifting from terrain to the enemy. Meaning that it's the Ukrainian military itself which is the target for the Russians. There the goal will be two fold as well.

(1) Prevent the Ukrainians from being able to reconstitute a military force capable of real offensive operations.

(2) Keep the pressure on so that there is a realization in the West that as time goes on Ukraine simply gets worse off, we have to keep sending billions and even more billions in equipment, and there is no advantage in continuing the war.

We are failing in every respect regards Ukraine, but that was likely a known outcome and a far more sinister, Machiavellian plan is behind all this. It is becoming clear, even to our NATO partners, that this war in Ukraine is part of a US geo-political strategy. Our allies still are not making the leap that maybe we wanted this war, instigated this war, but the fact that this is part of a bigger US vs. Russia campaign has become clear.

We created a security problem for Russia that was impossible to ignore. We had to have known that war would ensue when we offered NATO membership to Ukraine, fast tracked things, and stonewalled the Russians. The Russians stopped us in the Republic of Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014. With our violations of Minsk, withdraw from the Ballistic Missile Treaty, massive intel activity in Ukraine which was actively working against Russia... We poked this bear pretty hard and then pretended like we were attacked "unprovoked" in a "war of aggression." They were not going to accept this.

Imagine this scenario: In our global chess game at trying to seize oil and gas rich nations in South America, North Africa and the Middle East which are aligned with Russia, weakening Russia militarily and economically assists our efforts. By causing this war in Ukraine, we have the Ukrainians doing the bleeding, the Euro's flipping 1/2 of the bill and taking on most the refugees, and we stand to benefit from it around the world!

But that does not change the fact that Ukraine will get sacrificed in this process.

[Chad C. Mulligan]

.....By causing this war in Ukraine,

WE, meaning the West, didn't cause this war. The root and proximate causes are Moscow's all-to-obvious attempt to re-subjugate Ukraine into the new totalitarian Russian empire. Putin's openly stated objective is to "Russify" Ukraine, i.e. to obliterate the Ukrainian language, Ukrainian Church, Ukrainian constitution (rule of law), and Ukrainian culture. By manipulating Yanukovich, he almost pulled it off, but when the truth came out, 800,000 Ukrainians went into the streets, enduring beatings and gunfire, to make it abundantly obvious that they didn't want that. So obvious that Yanukovich fled to the land of his masters, leaving Ukraine's government in the hands of Ukrainians.

Having failed by subterfuge, Putin opted for open warfare, and here we are. America supports freedom and rule of law in Europe, but more importantly some uf us remember Kennan's dictum that Moscow must be contained, since it can't be defeated and will never reform. This is why the former USSR slave states have all rushed to be admitted to the European Union, (and ultimately NATO), including Ukraine. And why former holdout states like Sweden and Finland have also joined NATO. Containing Moscow will be expensive on many levels, but the alternative is unthinkable. A Russian-dominated Eurasia, or Russkiy Mir, stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific, are not just philosophers' pipe dreams.

[BroJoeK]

PIF: "USCGC Healy is a medium breaker.
The only Polar (heavy) is the USCGC Polar Star (WAGB-10).
This is about heavies."

I confess to having given very little thought to the subject of great power competition in the Arctic Ocean.
But, since you bring it up, here's what I know about it:

Some current and future icebreakers:

1. Russian future Project 10510 "Leader" class, nuclear powered, will be the largest icebreaker ever built, at circa 70,000 tons.

2. Russia's Project 22220 "Arktika" class, nuclear powered, are currently the largest icebreakers ever built, at circa 34,000 tons.

3. CCP China's future heavy Polar Class Xue Long 3 ("Snow Dragon-3") icebreaker, possibly nuclear powered, will be China's 3rd and largest, at around 26,000 tons.

4. USA's future Polar Class-2 "Polar Sentinel" class, heavy icebreakers will be the largest icebreakers the US has ever built, at ~23,000 tons.

5. USA's current "Healy" class, medium icebreakers are the largest in the USCG inventory today, at ~16,000 tons.

6. USA's old "Polar" class, heavy icebreakers are actually smaller than the newer Healy "mediums", Polars at around 14,000 tons.

7. CCP China's new (2019) MV Xue Long 2 ("Snow Dragon"), is classified as an icebreaker research vessel, at ~14,000 tons.

8. CCP China is also constructing "light" icebreakers at less than 10,000 tons, presumably for less challenging conditions.

PIF: "The Coast Guard’s plan to build three heavy icebreakers is five years behind schedule and the price has ballooned to $5.1 billion from an initial estimate of less than $2 billion ..."

Which brings up the entire issue of the US Navy's warship building capacity -- currently running maybe eight new ships per year from four major shipyards.
For comparisons, consider:

1. During the Second World War the US averaged around 200 major warships per year from 30 major shipyards -- plus thousands more smaller ships.

2. During the 1980s under Pres. Reagan's Cold War buildup, the US produced around 25 warships per year from 8 major shipyards.

3. Today the US produces maybe 8 new warships per year from just four major shipyards.

For whatever my opinion is worth, this is no way adequate for the current world situation, and is even more disturbing when we consider the fiascos -- FUBARs -- in these recent projects:

1. Zumwalts
2. LCSs
3. Constellations
4. Polar Star-2s

And those are only the ones off the top of my head...

Yes, I know there is a major multi-year $25 billion project to upgrade our existing shipyards, but there is no specific suggestion these upgrades will increase warship production, and there's no discussion about opening up new (or reopening old) shipyards.

I blame Congress more than the Navy, since mistakes are inevitable, especially in trying to design ships that will still be effective decades into the future.
However, allocating money for national defense (versus "green new deal" or "inflation reduction"!!) is a matter of conscious choice, and Congress has chosen poorly in recent years, imho.

[BroJoeK]

Red6: "First off, it's based on “combat power” not actual raw numbers .
In other words, you want a 3:1 combat power advantage.
Example: in 1986 an M1A1 was compared to a T72 a much better tank in EVERY respect.
4 M1s had far more combat power than 4 T72s."

Right, and it seems to me that once we untangle your logic a bit, it could turn out we agree on some things here.

So, first of all, I should have made clear that all discussion of the alleged "three to one" rule is based on assumptions like, "all else being equal".
Obviously, if one side has a decided technological advantage, then "three to one" is meaningless.

However, in the Russia-Ukraine War, especially in the beginning, both sides were using pretty much the same weapons, so "three to one" begins to look somewhat realistic.

Second, everything depends on conditions in a specific battle.
Consider -- YouTube carries many videos of Russian columns attacking in armored vehicles, some with "cope cages" and "turtle tanks", along roads where Ukraine's drones and/or artillery destroy, first the lead vehicle, then the last vehicle, then one-by-one, all the vehicles & troops in-between.
Under such conditions, Russian losses are easily 10 for every one Ukrainian casualty.
Further, we might note that Ukrainians are said to be much better at getting their wounded off the battlefield and into quality hospitals soon enough to allow their survival and recovery.
So, Ukraine's average ratio of wounded to dead could be much higher than Russia's.

Red6: "Secondly, it's a rule of thumb at a tactical level, not an operational or strategic level.
But just for fun, I applied it here some time ago.
At an operational and strategic level things change a bit.
BUT, if you mess with an enemy that has a 3:1 advantage like Ukraine did, it's still a bad idea."

So, let's start here: any suggestions that Ukrainians "messed with" Russia are just insane lying Russian propaganda disinformation.
The truth is that Ukraine has defended itself against unprovoked Russian invasion, and nothing else.

Second, the fact that Russians outnumber Ukrainians in every category you can consider (except two) is fundamental to the basic situation -- in territory size, in population, in GDP, in military equipment and spending, in nuclear weapons, in advanced technology -- in virtually every category, Russians vastly outnumber and overbalance Ukraine's forces.
The only two areas where Russians do not exceed Ukraine are:

1. In courage and ingenuity on the battlefields, in quickly adapting and exploiting their opponents' weaknesses.

2. In lining up nearly every civilized country on earth as allies to aid with military hardware, actionable intelligence, humanitarian assistance and financial support.

Countries sending aid to Ukraine as of 2022.
Does not show more recent additions such as the Philippines:

So far, these two Ukrainian advantages have allowed them to stay in the fight and avoid outright defeat for over two years.
But they are not yet enough to give Ukraine a victory, and for that I think it will take something more, something which our current Democrat administration can never provide -- a plan for victory.

Red6: "Based on the leaked document (https://www.newsweek.com/2023/05/05/read-leaked-secret-intelligence-documents-ukraine-vladimir-putin-1794656.html#slideshow/2222829) slide 16, the Russians were losing about 1.54 - 1.7 troops for every Ukrainian."

I would take any such numbers with a heavy sprinkling of salt, recognizing that casualty ratios can be very different on different days in different battles.
Again -- when Ukrainians were attacking, as they did near Robodyne in 2023, against entrenched Russian positions, you can well expect their casualties to be much higher than the Russians.
But when conditions are reversed, then you can well expect to see much higher Russian casualties.

For example, according to Ukrainian reports, and everyone else who watches these things, Russia's recent invasions near Kharkiv are producing over 1,000 casualties per day among Russians caught in Ukrainian killing fields, with many Russian casualties for every one Ukrainian.
And one verification of this is the fact that Russians have made no significant progress anywhere along the entire front, since Avdiivka and Ocheretyne.

Red6: "Every US administration which starts a war always promises to stick it through, that they are in it for the long haul, but they NEVER are.
Why?
Our political system is a revolving door and the promises made by the predicessor are not honored.
Not even formal treaties we sign and go through Congress are honored!
Even our buerocracy switches out most its key leaders as new administrations come in."

And hopefully, in January 2025, there will be a thorough housecleaning of all the insane lunatics who occupy the top floors of our Deep State buildings, including the Pentagon.
What exactly will happen after that is anybody's guess, but I am certain the current conditions cannot continue indefinitely.
Major changes are needed, and I know just the leader to make them.
He'll be on the ballot in November, is currently favored to win.

Red6: " It is naive to believe that we will back Ukraine indefinetly or to the level we did in 2002.
But Russia is in it for the long haul.
How do you think this will end?"

For many years now, every strategic thinker I've seen has said CCP China is the bigger threat, long term, than Russia or anybody else.
Only one power on earth can still deal with China from a position of strength, and that is the US.
Many powers can deal with Russia, especially the European Union, united in NATO -- Euros can replace US aid and even leadership on Ukraine.
If and when the US "pivots" towards China, as we've long promised to do, then Europeans will be left to figure out when and how they want to settle the Russia-Ukraine War.

My guess is, they won't settle, ever, and so Russia will become just another CCP China client state, along the lines of Little Kim's NoKo.

Red6: "In planning an operation, after we have an enemy most probable and dangerous course of action generated by the S-2/G-2, we plug in a worst case scenario for casualties to see if we can complete the mission.
And then, everything ends up being different anyhow (LOL)."

Right. It's important to understand that the US and our allies "war gamed" Ukraine's planned 2023 counter-offensive and determined it had a "high probability" of success.
In reality, nothing went as planned and the war games proved worse than useless.
The problem was, our planners did not understand what was really happening on the ground and so made any number of false assumptions.

Hopefully, that will not happen again.

[Red6]

The crux of your post is Maiden.

Instead of pretending to have done the research and paraphrasing someone else, I’ll link you to one of the more comprehensive articles I have found on this topic, Quora: https://www.quora.com/Did-the-CIA-foment-the-Maidan-coup-to-oust-a-pro-Russian-president-of-Ukraine (very well sourced)

It’s probably a little much for you to read. But I won’t summarize it since it’s already pretty lean (not a lot of fluff), just a lot of information.

Not included in this persons write up, is some of the testimony by Nuland where she hints that we caused this, and admitted to having the state department spend $5 billion USD on directly trying to influence the political landscape in Ukraine up until Maiden. Also not included in this write up are the much later released details about 12 CIA bases throughout Ukraine conducting operations both targeting the Ukrainian government and Russia.

[gleeaikin]

Very interesting map. I notice the Cree indians have a significant chunk of Canada. Shortly before she died, she told my husband that she was 1/8th Cree Indian. She had never admitted that because of significant prejudice against Indians in the Middle West when he was a child. I was living in a mid west state in the late 1950s and early 60s and there were laws against giving Indians alcohol. A friend of mine complained that although she was pure European, because of her dark hair and complection, she was often refused drinks in bars.

[Chad C. Mulligan]

Instead of pretending to have done the research and paraphrasing someone else, I’ll link you to one of the more comprehensive articles I have found on this topic, Quora: https://www.quora.com/Did-the-CIA-foment-the-Maidan-coup-to-oust-a-pro-Russian-president-of-Ukraine (very well sourced) It’s probably a little much for you to read. But I won’t summarize it since it’s already pretty lean (not a lot of fluff), just a lot of information.

Well, thank you for that. Quora won't load for me, given my "outdated browser", so I'll have to stick to the foot-high stack of dead tree books I've collected in the last year or two on Ukraine, Russia, and postwar Europe.

[Chad C. Mulligan]

It’s probably a little much for you to read.

I'll forgive you that bit of snark since you don't know that I am nearly 80 and mobility handicapped just short of a wheelchair. All I do is read, eat, sleep and excrete, not to put too fine a point on it. This frustrating near-immobility is why I waste so much time arguing with Russophiles on FR.

[Red6]

When the war began, Ukraine had already been receiving lethal military assistance for years and we quickly swooped in giving them a massive military aid package to include 6 or 7 thousand Javelin missiles literally in the first month. Some of the military equipment we provided such as the Javelin hits at the heart of a mechanized force.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#:~:text=The%20United%20States%20alone%20has,scale%20invasion%20in%20February%202022 (dates to the side)

No, there were some things we provided the Ukrainians that do give them an advantage both in weaponry, but also access to our SIGNIT, HUMINT and GEOINT etc. Ukraine doesn't have 44 dedicated intel satellites (not communications, GPS etc). Ukraine doesn't have the ability to turn the lights off in Serbia already in the mid 90s like we did.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Reconnaissance_satellites_of_the_United_States

Example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_the_Moskva I'd imagine knowing where this ship is, might help facilitate in shooting at it. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61343044

Perceptions are skewed because we have broad censorship in the West (literally like in the former East Block). Everything is over IP and we have two servers on the West Coast, and two on the East coast through which everything coming into our out of the country go (total government control). This has likely even contributed to this war. China's voice is heard, they have lobbyists, donate to political campaigns, the two party's, their media is active in the US, and they have some influence on our media. Because of the prolific trade, the US is concerned about trade spats and there is constant dialog between the two. So China and their concerns, “how they see the world” is heard both by the American citizenry and our government. But with Russia you have little trade, little media spill over, and little influence in our government. Do you realize that the situation regards Taiwon and Ukraine are fairly similar, but we treat Taiwan entirely different than Ukraine? We would never dare offer to bring Taiwan into a direct military alliance with us and put our troops there.

Because of this broad censorship on our side, you get near one sided success stories, one sided bleeding heart stories, one sided horror stories. This creates appearances that are simply not in step with reality, which has Russia having taken nearly all they want to take (the Eastern ethnic Russian areas). Ukraine is not in NATO and Russia blocked that through force. We are in the position of making up new goal posts to pretend we are victorious, hence the BS casualty reports. Feel good junk. As we pretend that we won, Russia is simply keeping the pressure on Ukraine in order to make them and in particular their masters (us) negotiate some sort of deal to end this eventually (likely after our elections - should also tell you who is really in charge), but also to make sure Ukraine is unable to muster a force for a counter offensive.

The last little bit of “the Russian perspective” was muted ever since 2017: https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1DD29L/ That was likely something which contributed to this war since in the West people are entirely ignorant about the concerns Russia had and why this war actually happened, hence the constant mention of “unprovoked attack.” A statement which is a self admission of ignorance.

As the Russians were screaming at the top of their lungs, Lavrov traveling all over the world trying to ring alarm bells, as the Russian media was flooded 24/7 about the threat to Russia posed by NATO being on their border and how Russia will not accept this, there was near complete silence in the West and all you heard was an occasional article about how “the evil” Russians were amassing troops along the Ukrainian border, and Ukraine had a right to do whatever they want because of some idea of sovereignty. No propaganda there. If I want to start a giant bonfire in my back yard which might burn down your home, do I have that right because of "sovereignty?" Or do decisions which impact others create stakeholders that also have a say? https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66776733 If Ethiopia holds back to much water and this impacts Egypt, is it OK for Ethiopia to tell Egypt to go get bent, "sovereignty?" Of course not. It's not a rational argument. It's just more sound good junk, something which pretends to be an argument, but isn't.

The Russian perspective - and the agrguemnts do have merit to varying degrees: The US overthrew a democratically elected, in what were fair elections (according to third party/neutral observers), government in Ukraine and installed one we liked. The US was violating Minsk, trying to violate Montreux, withdrew from the Ballistic Missile Treaty (plays a role in this conflict), invaded Iraq, Syria, Libya, and sponsored a coups in Venezuela (all Russian aligned or allies), and then wanted to bring Ukraine into NATO. And then we talk about an “unprovoked” attack.

You are simply doing what comes easy, pointing the finger at the one that fired the first shot. In that case, we fired the first shot at Afghanistan, did that make our invasion there “unprovoked?” That is what the Soviet propaganda did regards Cuba in 1962 when we would not accept a similar situation we are trying to put Russia in today.

251 various military operations since 1991, but who is counting? Our MSM isn't, they simply write about “unprovoked attacks” and copy and paste literally articles written by government ghost writers. If you say anything which might disagree, that is “enemy propaganda,” i.e. anything in disagreement with the official government narrative. Just like anything which disagrees with the official covid, inflation, vaccine, narrative is mis and dis information, needing swift deletion by a big tech that is in bed with our Intel service. Speaking about our Big tech being in bed with Intel, what should it tell you when Google and our social media championed Mr. Z and helped him get elected? Obviously, this comedian with zero political experience, meager financial means, young, a Jew in a nation that has antisemitic undertones won fair and square in “sovereign” elections.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-new-president-volodymyr-zelensky-just-won-the-first-ever-successful-virtual-campaign/

https://medium.com/@edward.kit82/learning-from-zelensky-41397e1cf840

Zelenskyy, the first foreign president endorsed by the DNI and US Secretary of State. What’s funny is that some try to claim how this is some great argument for Mr. Z because he carried so much of the vote. He had an army of people online backing him which we trained and financed through the State Department. Mr. Z was getting backed by US NGO’s, US big tech and Google and then being financed via proxy through Ukrainian oligarchs that had ties with guess who? Us. Isn't it time for someone to talk about “sovereignty” again and why we need to back Ukraine for that cause?

Better yet, now this sovereign leader in a democratic nation, cancels future elections. But no worries, our factual and objective MSM doesn't think it's a big deal and it's justified. Who would have thought we would see the day where the US attempts to create arguments for why shutting off elections and ending a democracy is right?

Of course the Chinese are a bigger threat. But we won't address that because they are economically to valuable for us and they have some influence on our political class. Besides, they actually are a near peer military threat unlike Russia. Russia is simply a nation that is sitting on something we want, oil/gas and in the name of democracy, human rights, and sovereignty, we need to liberate these resources from Russian oppression in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Venezuela.

The Chinese are literally everything we want to pretend the Russians are, but are not really. The Chinese really are a single party communist regime (CCP rules the country). The Chinese really do have a horrible human rights record: 1 million people in internment camps, dissidents disappear, forced abortions, questionable organ harvesting policies, one child policy years past. The Chinese really do oppress religion, they actually did invade Tibet “unprovoked” and threaten to invade Taiwan for pure economic interests. The Chinese do mass censor, execute more people than any other nation on earth... But you have a US government literally downplaying this and telling the Chinese not to worry, there will be no policy shifts regarding China even after the de facto naval blockade of Taiwan. China is to important for us, so we deal with them entirely different than Russia which is by far not as bad as the Chinese. Russia has a semblance of democracy, they have a semblence of rule of law, a Judeo-Christian / Euro culture. Russia is ethnically, racially (Slav / Rus), religiously (EO), linguistically, Western even if we want to reject them and pretend otherwise.

We rejected them. Realize, there was an era where Russia was trying to near and align itself to Western Europe and the US. After the Cold War ended, the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union dissolved, with Russia spending about the same % of their GDP on defense as we were before the Ukraine war, the threat they posed was gone, history, past tense. But I promise you, having been in the IC myself, the Russians no matter what they did, would NEVER be accepted by us. To many block heads in the US that want to see a Soviet threat, that actually still referred to Russia as the Soviets (no kidding)... Of course today we were successful in creating this “self fulfilling prophesy.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93NATO_relations

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule (you might enjoy this one)

Ukraine is a means to an end: Weaken Russia militarily and economically making our seizing of their frontier nations that have a real economic value to us easier.

The Ukraine war has the Euro's flipping 1/2 the bill and absorbing most the refugees, the Ukrainians are doing near all the bleeding, and we are the ones that stand to benefit around the world as Russia has a harder time projecting force and protecting their assets and aligned/allied nations: Syria, Libya, Iraq, Venezuela, Niger...

But I do not think this will work as we planned. Russia while far weaker than us and our alliances both Atlantic and Pacific, is strong enough to be a pain in our ass. They have a robust Intel service, a competent military, they know how to play the proxy games. They have an economy that can stand up to our economic warfare. We are predictable and they took measures to harden their economy against our efforts to undermine them and they have something people need: energy and food. They do have some industry, some high tech, a foreign service that can negotiate deals... We picked a fight that might turn out a little more costly for us than we thought it would be. Russia isn't the sort of twerp we are used to pushing around.

Trump isn't going to fix this. We dug a hole so deep that while Trump may be able to end the war in Ukraine quickly, the proxy wars starting up, the Russia-Chinese alliance that is forming, expansion of BRICS, none of that will roll back.

Besides, Trump isn't going to get elected. Don't get me wrong, I hope he wins and support him. I would volunteer for him and think nearly every decision made when in his first term was spot on. I cannot find where I disagree with him, on anything. But, the bureaucracy and our oligarchs want Biden, so he'll win. The powers to be will ensure that Trump cannot campaign (leveling the playing field with Biden that can't campaign because he has no energy and can barely speak), they will ensure the debate is controlled (so that Biden has a chance or at least doesn't do so bad), they already removed Trump's foot soldiers, i.e. those people who support the political parties and are willing to operate in the more gray areas (J6 eliminated them). But Biden still has his foot soldiers. Neither the financiers nor organizations behind BLM, ANTIFA, etc. have been crippled by a DOJ like they did for Trump (Oath Takers, Proud Boys, one more, have been eliminated). Finally, the manipulations and gaming of the elections themselves will favor Biden.

Biden may as well be a cardboard cutout of a human with a bobble head attached. He doesn't even need to have a pulse, really. He's a brand name for a circle of people that are willing to support those interests which get you elected. Biden in his first MONTHS in office made sure that big pharma got what they wanted (eliminate the Trump era cost controls). The Unions, Warren Buffet, those that benefit from trade with China (to a large degree), big tech (no breaking up of their monopolies), everyone that matters got what they wanted. You and I, not so much. But we don't really matter. The same oligarchs who have a lot of money to throw at political campaigns or sponsor these activist groups, also own or at least largely influence the MSM. All you need to do if you want to see who will win the US elections, is see who the oligarchs support. Whoever that is, will (((likely))) win. After Biden is in his seat for another 4 years, you'll be told to respect the democratic process, to respect the office of the Presidency, that you're undemocratic and unpatriotic if you don't get behind Biden. LOL

[Chad C. Mulligan]

Just a few little points, Red: we have broad censorship in the West This is why we can't see Sputnik, RT, Al Jazeera, and all the other pro-Moscow publications so regularly linked to here on FR?

As the Russians were screaming at the top of their lungs, Just a couple of years earlier Moscow was perfectly happy having a NATO nation on their border. They even gave us freedom to use their airspace to supply our troops in Afghanistan.

The US overthrew a democratically elected, in what were fair elections (according to third party/neutral observers), government in UkraineFor the umpteenth time, WE didn't overthrow Yanukovich, the Ukrainian people did. 800,000 unarmed protesters in Kyiv alone, in the face of beatings and gunfire (by a sniper team brought from Russia) made it abundantly clear that they wanted accession to the EU, not a Russian front.

That is what the Soviet propaganda did regards Cuba in 1962 Nobody has ever been offering nuclear-armed IRBMs to Ukraine. The two situations are not at all comparable.

....this sovereign leader in a democratic nation, cancels future elections Elections are on hold because there's a war on! The Rada approved a declaration of martial law the very day Russian invaded Ukraine.

That's enough for now. But I'll just close by saying that whatever IC activity you were involved with, I'm glad you're out of it now.