A former PLA soldier hired by Russians gives a reality check on Russia-Ukraine war

YouTube ^ | 5/23/2024 | Li Jianwei

[The Old Hoosier]

"The Russians are stubborn and want us to continue fighting...Bro, this war is unwinnable."

[blitz128]

I love terms like “historically aligned” which lead me to something I call recentism.

Recentism is a position someone takes to justify their position or actions whereas they go back just far enough in time to do that

Examples people claim that US took territory from Mexico and those territories “rightfully “ belong to them. So these stolen lands belonged to Mexico since the beginning of time, correct? Well no. Mexico and Mexican territories existed because Spain took these lands from the separate indigenous people and created mexico(what language do most “Mexicans” speak? Spanish. Present day Mexico won independence from Spain.

But that is not the end of the story, and just like the “indigenous “ people of what is now the USA, the people and nations Aztec, Incas, Cherokee, Shawnee…. Were warring, invading, killing, enslaving, conquering long before Europeans set foot on these continents.

Recentism allows one to go back to a point say where they controlled a piece of land and say this was our land now give it back, regardless of the fact that they took it from someone, and those folks took it from someone else….

Russia and putins “historical claims” conveniently only go far enough back in time to justify them, recentism.

Don’t the mongols, romans , Persians, Turks, Chinese(claims that should concern Russia) have “historical “ claims as well

Been going on too long but I will end with this. Of all the peoples of the earth today, there is one that can show the longest historical occupation of an area, going back thousands of years and yet their claims to those lands are routinely challenged and that is the Jews of what is now Israel, curious

[blitz128]

“ Who do you think is FAR-FAR worse, Russia or the PRC in any one of them?”

That is some pretty good rationalization.

This guy has only murdered one person, but this guy has murdered 5, why are you picking on the first one and not the second . Of course we have forgot to mention Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, or Afghanistan when it comes to whose “far far worse”

And to your last point
“What’s the difference”, well at this moment it is the fact that Russia has invaded and is razing a sovereign nation.

China may be next, time will tell, but the results of the actions of Putin may give them something to reflect on. My guess is cherry picking some of china’s “historical” claims on eastern Russian federation may come before Taiwan

[blitz128]

“ People are pretty much people and when folks attempt to dehumanize a group, that should actually set off alarm bells regarding the one attempting to do such.”

If you have at all listened to RT and many Russian polititians and man-on-the -street interviews of “average “ Russians, as to Ukrainians should be exterminated, sub-human, burned, drowned…., then I would think your dehumanizing alarm bells should be ringing pretty hard right about now

[Redmen4ever]

Given that each side is rational, the doctrine of mutual assured destruction says neither side will start a nuclear war. During the cold war, the US and the USSR opposed each other with nuclear arsenals, and even engaged in flare-ups here and there. But, there was no nuclear war because each side was rational.

Each side was confident in its ultimate victory. The democrats believed in democracy, and the communists believed in communism. Khrushchev famously said, we will bury you (meaning with kitchen appliances, family homes, health clinics, etc.) Nixon engaged him in “the kitchen debate.” Why would either side gamble a sure victory with peace by getting into a nuclear war?

Well, when the Berlin Wall fell, it was your side that collapsed. Democracy won, not communism.

For a time it looked as though Russia would join with the west as a democratic country. But, no. I’m sorry. Yeltsin was weak and the Chechens were (and still are) crazy. Russia needed a strong leader, and that person turned out to be Putin. Putin and his party were actually the best at the time for Russia. But, the corruption was too ingrained. And, instead of evolving into a multi-party democracy, Russia evolved into a dictatorship. Eventually Putin and his party succumbed to corruption.

Nowadays, Russia is a kleptocracy with nuclear weapons. It has become a big version of North Korea. It is not clear that Russia is rational.

Certainly Iran isn’t rational. They have the idea they can usher in the battle of Armageddon and the coming of the 12th Imam. They are religious fanatics and there’s no telling what they will do.

China, on the other hand, appears to be confident in their system. They say the west is corrupt by materialism. That we are lazy, stupid and fat. That crime and sexual perversion is growing. They think their system, in which the state controls the media and education, is better, because it maintains the ethics of hard work and saving.

Xi is therefore like Khrushchev. He believes his system will win with peace. Why would he risk victory by getting into a war with us? As long as we are reasonable, we can work with that guy. Let’s wait until the next time something like the Berlin Wall falls, and one of the two sides collapses. Then, we will find out whether Chinese communism or western democracy prevails.

[Chad C. Mulligan]

For example: Claiming that Moscow has a right to annex Crimea has no more legitimacy than the British would have by demanding to annex Bombay because they once had a large naval establishment there.

[BroJoeK]

USA-FRANCE: "+450.000 Russians Ukrainians either killed or ravaged, already. A generation lost."

kiryandil: "fixed it, froggie"

BobL: "It’s weird how the Operatives here continue to use TOTALLY DISCREDITED numbers regarding Russian causalities, but it is consistent with their implication that the only reason this war even took place was because Putin woke up on the wrong side of the bed on Feb 24, 2022 and thus decided to start a war."

Here are all the estimates I can find on both Russian and Ukrainian casualties.
Implied numbers are based on historical ratios of killed to wounded.

Casualty Estimates Russia-Ukraine War -- to date

Source of Estimate	Date of Estimate	Ukrainians Total Killed	Ukrainians Wounded captured missing	Ukrainians Total Casualties	Russians Total Killed	Russians Wounded captured missing	Russians Total Casualties
Ukraine's government*	May 2024	31,000	**100,000**	**131,000**	**220,000**	**280,000**	500,000
United States gvt.	August 2023	70,000	120,000	190,000	**100,000**	**250,000**	350,000
United Kingdom gvt.	April 2024	unkn	unkn	unkn	**150,000**	**300,000**	450,000
UA Losses Project	April 2024	~50,000	**100,000**	**150,000**	unkn	unkn	unkn
Ukraine Museum of History	Nov 2023	35,000	120,000	155,000	unkn	unkn	unkn
Russian government	February 2024	**100,000**	**344,000**	444,000	unkn	unkn	unkn
Mediazona -- implied	February 2024	unkn	unkn	unkn	100,000	**300,000**	**400,000**

* = Ukrainians estimate their own casualties as averaging one-third their reports of Russian casualties.

** = implied estimate

As for Vlad the Invader's motives they certainly had nothing to do with his bed, and everything to do with measuring himself against Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great and Stalin the Mass-Murderer.

So invading Ukraine is all about Vlad making up for any deficiencies he perceived in those comparisons:

[Chad C. Mulligan]

Good work there, BroJoeK. Thanks.

[Redmen4ever]

I notice that you believe the law of conquest was a good thing until the U.S. started conquering. Let’s look at the case of Mexico, which you treat as legitimate until it was defeated by the United States.

A few dozen conquistadors conquered Mexico because the conquistadors allied themselves with the subjugated tribes to overthrow their ruthless rulers.

The consequent territory was ruled by Spain as New Spain. During the Spanish period, there were incessant uprisings and intrigues. Finally, Mexico gained its independence from Spain in a long war of independence.

The consequent Mexican period was also one of incessant uprisings and intrigues. The central government of Mexico was constantly suppressing or trying but failing to suppress independence movements. Among these independence movements was one in the Mexican state of Texas.

The Texians (as they called themselves) flew the Mexican flag over the Alamo, with the number 1824 on it. They were demanding their rights under the Mexican Constitution of that year. But, not having their rights respected, they declared independence and won their independence in a short but decisive war.

When the consequent Republic of Texas joined the U.S. as a state, we thought there was some uncertainty about its border with Mexico. Was it the Rio Grande or the Rio Nueces? President Polk sent an envoy to Mexico to try to resolve the matter, with an offer of $5 million to put the border at the Rio Grande.

But, no, the flamboyant general and sometimes dictator of Mexico, Santa Ana, was going to defend every inch of Mexican territory to the Sabine River (the border of Texas with Louisiana). And, so, we got into a war with Mexico.

At what point did the right of conquest turn bad? When the U.S. defeated Mexico? Or, was it always bad? Isn’t the sorry history of mankind one of one war after another? The question shouldn’t be who has the right to be anybody’s master, because nobody has that right. Rather, the question should be when will everybody be free?

We’ve been trying for about a hundred years now to end war as a means of national policy. Obviously, we’ve not been successful. Our failure to end war doesn’t justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It means we must be vigilant in our own defense, and it means that small and medium-sized nations should consider joining into mutual defense with others to secure their independence.

[Gaffer]

Sure. And where are you going to get the immediate replacements for those where they are needed in the world, in order to continue to wage a prolonged war?

A very salient point, especially for all these pop-up situations all over the world we seem to be getting into one way or the other.

In web searching, information says it takes 5-7 years to build a carrier (Nimitz Class) and up to 12 years for some newer versions like the GR Ford class.

People like to think of this current US as the US that won WWII. Well, it's not. We don't have the production capacity, the workforce, nor the budgeting/financing capability anymore.

The only 'commitment' we seem to have today is to pathetically agonize and debate and fight over woke culture initiatives, IMO.

[dfwgator]

People like to think of this current US as the US that won WWII. Well, it's not. We don't have the production capacity, the workforce, nor the budgeting/financing capability anymore.

We also don't have the Demographics.

[Gaffer]

Most definitely. Over my lifetime (74) the leftists decided that they don’t want the America that was (i.e., the Americans of WWII) because they know/knew what freedom is and what the Constitution means and what a REPUBLIC is.

A dilemma for them, so they embarked on a program of population replacement with third world immigrants they think are easier to bribe into control by government largess.

[Menes]

Hello again, Mr. Mass55th,

how tragic to hear of your unfortunate son’s health predicaments!
I am truly sorry to read all he had to go through, but from the bottom of my heart I would wish him the very best for the future.

The chemotherapy must have been particularly gruelling for your unfortunate son, and I really pity him. It is always a dreadful chore for the body and soul of the patient - that’s why I decided not to get one for my adrenal cancer (a real orphan disease, as ony one or two persons in a million per year get it), preferring an extra-intensive radiation treatment.

This was due to the recommendation of my family doctor, since the only chemo treatment available for adrenal cancer is Mitotane. This stuff is almost archaic nowadays, as it has been used to treat AC since 1959, having originally been used in veterinary medicine. Its side effects are very considerable, so my family doctor had to call an expert on AC, ultimately advising me to forego the chemo, since no cancer cells had been found in my body, thanks be to God!

If that had been the case, I would have had to bite the bullet and get the Mitotane; still with an uncertain outcome...

Hopefully one day cancer will be relegated to the history books, just like polio, the plague, the pox, or leprosy.

Even the White Death, as tuberculosis was once called, and which claimed the lives of about 25% of adults in some countries, has been overcome - at least in the wealthier parts of the world.

May your dear son recover fully! :-)

And about Martin from Munich: he was right. In Germany, if it’s your birthday, you are, so to say, morally obliged to invite your guests, to be the host.

Furthermore, it is no wonder that he brought you flowers. If you are invited to someone’s house in Germany, you normally bring a gift, unless you are financially in real dire straits - or, of course, if it was an impromptu visit, which your guest couldn’t possibly have foreseen. Or, if you are really close friends :-)

Flowers are very popular as a gift, although, if you know your host’s literary or musical preferences, you could give him or her a book or CD instead. Wine, chocolates or other confectionery are popular gifts as well :-)

So, I hope I haven’t been rambling for too long. Now I’d like to wish you and your dear ones all the best, and - read you soon :-)

[gleeaikin]

“We, in America, have flaws. But anybody who says the U.S. is similar to Russia is a Putinbot, an anti-American leftist, or simply confused. Regarding Putinbots, I can respect that it’s a paying job. Ditto those who are paid by Soros.”

It would really help if all PAID Putinbot and those PAID by Soros would identify themselves. Then we can evaluate their comments as to whether they are truth, information, or PROPAGANDA?

[USA-FRANCE]

“Here are all the estimates I can find on both Russian and Ukrainian casualties.
Implied numbers are based on historical ratios of killed to wounded.”

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Very informative, great work with surgical precision as usual! Thank you.
The chart is clear when it comes to casualties on each side.
One thing that could be added is that the Ukrainian casualty number includes a high number of civilian casualties.
Whereas the Russian casualties are basically 99.9% Russian soldiers, and foreign pro-russian mercenaries.

[gleeaikin]

Yoou make interesting points in commen #144. Perhaps we should have smothered Russia with toilets and washing machines. Then the Russian soldiers would have had less enthusiasm for invading Ukraine to loot their toilets and washing machines for home use.

Since Iran is crazy we definitely don’t want them to have nuclear capability. For China it makes sense to project a sense of our strength so they don’t think war will gain them much. As to Russia, it certainly has its crazies, but the current moves against a number of military figures and corruption are well worth watching and analyzing. Is the goal here to increase the capacity of Russia to conquer Ukraine, or is it setting up an opportunity for Putin to say this war (oops, NOT war) is no longer worth fighting, time to end it and provide butter not guns? Certainly a nice thought for the Russian people, but time will tell. Meanwhile with yesterday’s report of Russia’s human losses passing one half million, many Russians will be questioning the current fighting, and perhaps Putin will listen.

[mass55th]

"People like to think of this current US as the US that won WWII. Well, it's not. We don't have the production capacity, the workforce, nor the budgeting/financing capability anymore."

Thank you for your input. You are absolutely right. This country is nothing like it was in WWII. The mass production that took place to wage that war is something that will never be seen in this country ever again. That was a special time with special people, and they got the job done. Not so today.

A while back I watched a British produced, three season documentary series called "War Factories." It ran from 2019 thru 2022. I believe some or all of the episodes can be found on YouTube. There are 22 of them, and they are very well done. On IMDb, the storyline for the series states: "This series is more than the story of war production, it's the untold story of World War II. No matter how many soldiers or how clever the generals, how daring the strategy, a war cannot be won if there are not enough weapons or food."

Here's the IMDb page for the series:

War Factories

[Red6]

We rejected the Russians even as they were trying to near, even align, themselves with the West in all aspects: politically, militarily, economically.

Specifically, there were some European nations which opened up to the Russians.

However, eventually it became apparent that the US in particular was more interested in expanding into the Russian sphere of influence, expanding the size and scope of its military alliance, in complete disregard of Russian interests.

We broke promises (NATO East expansion), withdrew from treaties (Ballistic Missile Treaty), violated treaties and conventions made by others (Minsk, Montreux), and were trying to get our fingers into literally every oil and gas producing nation aligned or even formally allied with Russia (Libya, Iraq, Syria, Venezuela), trying to expand our military alliance to their border and build bases there.

Russian disarmament (post Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union) simply became a weakness we can exploit. That is a reality Russia woke up to with Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia in 2004. They weren’t going to let that happen again as evidenced by the Republic of Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014 or now Ukraine 2022.

Since we care so much about democracy, human rights and sovereignty, maybe we should build a military base on Taiwan! I wonder why we won’t do that. We won’t do that because the PRC is powerful, we respect power, and we saw Russia as weak. It’s “us” that is the big shark.

Try thinking and making arguments, and use less emotional words that really are no argument. Are we a kleptocracy? Are you telling me that most of our Congress who become rich in some cases even worth billions are doing so on their “public servant” salaries? Are you telling me the Biden’s are clean? Are you telling me most governors of states are clean? Stop it with the dumb word-feelings associations. That’s for dummies.

Is Russia corrupt? Sure. So are we. One of my former governors: https://www.cnn.com/2011/09/15/opinion/krumholz-beckel-perry-pharmaceutical/index.html

The US is an oligarchy, no different than Russia: www.princeton.edu/~mgilens/Gilens%20homepage%20materials/Gilens%20and%20Page/Gilens%20and%20Page%202014-Testing%20Theories%203-7-14.pdfhttps://www.cnn.com/2011/09/15/opinion/krumholz-beckel-perry-pharmaceutical/index.html

A few rich and very powerful people basically influence the elections, laws, government regulations, and their enforcement disproportionately. These people and the corporations/banks/NGO’s they steer, simply change the laws if they do not like them, literally: https://www.wionews.com/opinions-blogs/how-disney-routinely-exerted-influence-on-the-us-copyright-law-to-keep-its-greatest-asset-mickey-mouse-549141 This is true if you’re talking about pharma, agra, big tech today... On MOST issues where the public interest and opinion stands in conflict with the interests of our oligarchs, the interests of the oligarchs are served.

But here are some facts regards the nuclear issue you address: Russia never used a nuke on someone. Russia conducted less atmospheric tests. Russia conducted less space tests. And MOST the radiation floating out there today from these tests is from us since the Russians even went as far as using lead tamping to reduce the radiation yield by >90%, while we just lit them off one after the other in the Pacific. Because we’re so rational.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests

[mass55th]

Regarding the production of war equipment, I just saw this article on FR:

Russian shell production three times greater than of Ukraine's allies

[Gaffer]

Thanks for the link

[mass55th]

You’re welcome.