Posted on 10/26/2023 7:21:54 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
An average taken among polls conducted by established pollsters over September and October shows former President Trump holding a commanding seven point lead among independent voters over the Democrat incumbent, President Joe Biden. Established pollsters like the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia to Quinnipiac to ABC/Washington Post showed Trump leading Biden anywhere from 3-points to 15-points among independents.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: INDEPENDENTS (Sept/Oct)@Center4Politics
Trump 51%
Biden 49%
.
NPR/Marist
Trump 49%
Biden 43%
.
Fox News Poll
Trump 48%
Biden 40%
.
ABC/WP
Trump 52%
Biden 39%
.
CBS News
Trump 57%
Biden 42%
.
Quinnipiac
Biden 46%
Trump 41%Average
(R) Trump 50% (+7)
(D) Biden 43% pic.twitter.com/7BPjeUGwcT— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 18, 2023
The recent polling data disproves a key talking point pushed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination. Since announcing his presidential bid in May, DeSantis and campaign surrogates have repeatedly argued that former President Trump cannot win over independent voters, a key block of voters needed to defeat Joe Biden.
“At the end of the day, people do want to win, and you can’t win with just Republican voters. I think we showed in Florida that if you want a big victory you’ve got to win independent voters,” DeSantis said during a Fox News interview in July. “You’ve got to win people who haven’t voted for our party in the last several cycles. I’ve shown I can do that, and I think we can do it nationally.” DeSantis campaign spokeswoman and registered foreign agent for a top Zelensky ally, Christina Pushaw, said in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that even if Democrats or independents agree with some of Trump policy ideas, they still won’t vote for him.
Despite the DeSantis campaign’s insistence, polling continues to show independent voters flocking to Trump, who is by-and-far the likely Republican presidential nominee. On-the-other-hand, DeSantis himself has seen his numbers slide among independent voters, further undermining his already collapsing candidacy.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: INDEPENDENTS (Sept/Oct)@Center4Politics
Trump 51%
Biden 49%
.
NPR/Marist
Trump 49%
Biden 43%
.
Fox News Poll
Trump 48%
Biden 40%
.
ABC/WP
Trump 52%
Biden 39%
.
CBS News
Trump 57%
Biden 42%
.
Quinnipiac
Biden 46%
Trump 41%
Average
(R) Trump 50% (+7)
(D) Biden 43% pic.twitter.com/7BPjeUGwcT
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 18, 2023
And we have a MAGA speaker of the house. Win Win...
BTTT
DeSantis campaign spokeswoman is a registered foreign agent for a top Zelensky ally.
Christina Pushaw, said on X that even if independents
agree w/ Trump policy ideas, they still won’t vote for him.
Yet polling shows independent voters flocking to Trump, while DeSantis’ numbers
slide among independents, further undermining his already collapsing candidacy.
He peaked too soon.................🤦♂️😜🤦♀️
Looks like it......snx.
Please stop with this Biden nonsense.
The vote is between sanity and a dumpster fire.
Honestly, I don't think they voted for him in 2016 or 2020, so I don't expect they'd vote for him now. One poster recently told me that not only was he not going to vote for Trump but that he was going to get as many others as possible to do the same. He calls himself a conservative, and that's why I don't.
DeSantis and campaign surrogates are repeating the Biden’s act aww everything is fine move along.
State by state is what matters. And then, only a few of those.
“DeSantis campaign spokeswoman is a registered foreign agent for a top Zelensky ally...Christina Pushaw”
Absolutely, hell she was at Zelensky’s victory party in 2019. What’s really scary about this beach (besides her botox’d face) is just how mixed up she is in Russia’s backyard - she’s even worse than Nuland, although she doesn’t have to power of Nuland.
People can say all they want about DeSantis being a great leader...but never forget that he chose this beach, or at least didn’t object to have her assigned to him.
The key reality in this was in the ABC/WaPo poll listed above.
Their partisan mix was 25%Dem / 25%GOP / 47% Independent.
Partisan mix in polling is usually targetted and sometimes determined. Meaning, the survey asks the respondent for party affiliation. This rather than for registration because some states do not register by party.
If targetted, the pollster conducts the survey attempting random phone numbers by targetted zipcode (to ensure samples are proportional to where the population lives). If randomness got too many responses from Montana, dome are discarded.
Same for partisan mix. Samples are discarded to get the mix target. How is that target selected? That is usually determined from a recent election’s exit polling.
The world has changed. Independents are no longer “what’s left over”. They are the dominant force in the electorate. The parties dare not accept this so you will see polls in somewhat arrogant fashion actually ask Independents if the lean Dem or lean GOP.
Truth is, it is neither.
There is a habit of thought or presumption that Independents are . . . what’s left over.
DeSantis is touted as a great leader...but he chose as his campaign spokeswoman, a registered foreign agent for a top Zelensky ally.......spox Christina Pushaw was also at Zelensky’s victory party in 2019.
That’s gonna leave a mark.
Independents do not lean. That is why the question is arrogant.
They are not somehow, when dominant, unable to select between the two parties. They are not somehow in the middle.
They are outside the paradigm. They reject the parties policies. They have their own focus, which in 2016 was the Wall and the Swamp.
It is how Trump won. Michigan and Wisconsin and PA voters who had voted Obama switched to Trump. He was the candidate who addressed the Wall and the filth of Washington — defined clearly as self declared elites.
It is not about taxes or spending or even abortion and guns. It is contempt for elitism. This moves the 47%.
Some well-considered points there, Owen. Thanks.
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