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To: BroJoeK

The maps you provide show all nations that said “bad Russia” after the invasion but most were unwilling to take any actions and have normal relations with them today.

Focus on those that took action and the map does look different.

In fact, even among those that took action, there are cracks today, i.e. Japan: https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-breaks-with-u-s-allies-buys-russian-oil-at-prices-above-cap-1395accb Hungary: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-cannot-support-any-new-eu-energy-sanctions-against-russia-govt-2022-09-29/

Israel is surrounded by mostly backward retards. A WWII Sherman tank can still fight in that world in the 60s, 70s, 80s! An M60 (Sabra) can still fight in that part of the world in the 2000s and even present. Furthermore, behind much of Israels military accomplishments may that be some of the wars they fought, or even their equipment, is “us” to some degree backing them. Some of their big defense firms cooperate with ours and while they get credit, part of that system is actually based on our tech, or would never have been possible without our “foreign aid” etc.

Sine you mention Iron Dome: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33222/44 (we have been allowing for major tech transfers and helping pay for a lot of their stuff)

There are two big players on this planet which pretty much lead in terms of military development. The US and Russia historically (1955-2000), with Russia descending and PRC ascending (they are today domestically developing new weapons and are not merely using Russian clones anymore). Today, it is probably already US and PRC since Russia (aside form their nuclear deterrent) is a legacy threat.

We have a long history of testing our systems in these foreign campaigns, for example TOW saw use with the Israelis before it even was wide spread fielded in the US Army: https://history.redstone.army.mil/miss-tow.html In 1973 that system was “bad ass” and it proved its capabilities in the Yom Kippur War. Albeit there were some lessons learned and tweaks made by us.

As to the Russian sanctions, I am sure they are having some effect, no doubt as without them Russia may see even greater growth in GDP etc. However, it’s not a matter of opinion or my feelings when I state that Russia is seeing growth in their GDP this year by .3%, that their inflation is low at 4%, the Ruble is strong, their unemployment is low, their infrastructure isn’t decimated, their bureaucracy is still working, they are not seeing internal instability, their industry is actually growing. When you compare that to Ukraine you see a stark contrast. Ukraine has a GDP 40% less than what it was pre war, they have 27% inflation, they do have instability, a damaged infrastructure... So again you conflate the issue since the point is that when comparing Russia and Ukraine in how this war affected them in economic terms, Russia is undoubtedly not the loser here, Ukraine is.

The point about foreign fighters again is you conflating the point I was making. Russia never pushed to have international bans on mercenaries, their politicians and media didn’t push for that, OURS DID. And today some of the same Western news outlets that wrote stories about how immoral and evil mercenaries were in Iraq are OK with it in Ukraine. Point being, we pivot 180 degrees on issues and pretend to have the moral high ground, even as we take two opposing sides of the issue: As long as it suits us.

Most of these Euro countries are smart enough to know our game. Our influence in Europe is largely through NATO, the Russian threat isn’t really there, and they do not want to pay, you’re right. Because as a “sovereign” nation, and we love “sovereignty,” they choose to spend their tax money for their causes, not fighting our wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela (all oil producers coincidentally).

You are right about another thing. It is pretty much all the NATO allies and those that are tied to us in the Pacific that supported the sanctions and war effort. That is because we are all economically and in security matters tied together and act as a block. We share similar economic interests, both US and EU regards Ukraine. Ukraine is about “economic interests,” not our security. The giants who have political clout in industry and the financial institutions want EU and NATO expansion into Ukraine. For them there is a long list of benefits in this. However, no differently than if Cuba were to host the forces of the PRC and how that would be a huge problem for us, NATO expansion into Ukraine is for Russia. In fact, that’s even far worse for Russia because they are far weaker than us, there isn’t 90 miles of water between Ukraine and Russia, Cuba isn’t connected by land to the worlds strongest military alliance of 31 nations... For the Russians this is a security matter.

Because this is a security matter for Russia, they will be pretty tenacious and they will be willing to escalate this issue beyond the scope we’re willing to play. What that means for Ukraine ultimately is obvious, but many more people need to die before we finally end up at the same place we know we will end up at.

So let me ask what I asked already in October 2021 when we offered NATO to Ukraine: Was it worth it?


81 posted on 06/21/2023 8:29:39 AM PDT by Red6
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To: Red6
Red6: "In fact, even among those that took action, there are cracks today, i.e. Japan"

So far, I've not seen blatant lies in anything you posted today.
My response to much of it is: there's no reason for us to either exaggerate or minimize the levels of support or opposition each country provides Ukraine or Russia.

A small number of western countries provide high levels of direct support to Ukraine and many more provide lesser support or only lip service.

By contrast, no major countries directly support Russia, even China has said it opposes Russia's actions and will not supply weapons.
China, along with India and others, does benefit from Russia's fire-sale on Russian oil and natural gas.
These sales, so we're told, keep Russia's energy infrastructure working, but do not provide profits for Vlad's war effort.

Red6: "Israel is surrounded by mostly backward retards.
A WWII Sherman tank can still fight in that world in the 60s, 70s, 80s! An M60 (Sabra) can still fight in that part of the world in the 2000s and even present.
Furthermore, behind much of Israels military accomplishments may that be some of the wars they fought, or even their equipment, is “us” to some degree backing them.
Some of their big defense firms cooperate with ours and while they get credit, part of that system is actually based on our tech, or would never have been possible without our “foreign aid” etc."

Israel is a tiny country, roughly the size, population and GDP of New Jersey.
It has been a close US ally for many years, if not since Day One, and has received something like $250 billion in US aid, inflation adjusted, since 1949.
Given their size, they've done a remarkable job defending themselves against often very hostile neighbors.
I would even hazard to guess that, however much help Israel received, directly & indirectly, from the US, their experiences and lessons learned may have equally helped us in our research & development efforts.
So it's not a 100% one-way street.

Red6: "However, it’s not a matter of opinion or my feelings when I state that Russia is seeing growth in their GDP this year by .3%, that their inflation is low at 4%, the Ruble is strong, their unemployment is low, their infrastructure isn’t decimated, their bureaucracy is still working, they are not seeing internal instability, their industry is actually growing."

The Russian ruble is not traded internationally, so its value is stipulated at whatever the Russian bank says it is.
If the ruble were freely traded, it would be worth vastly less than the Russians claim, and Russia's economy would be seen as much worse off that Vlad now pretends.

Setting that aside, the rest of your words on this seem to be true.

Red6: "When you compare that to Ukraine you see a stark contrast.
Ukraine has a GDP 40% less than what it was pre war, they have 27% inflation, they do have instability, a damaged infrastructure...
So again you conflate the issue since the point is that when comparing Russia and Ukraine in how this war affected them in economic terms, Russia is undoubtedly not the loser here, Ukraine is."

Sure, there's no doubt -- Russia has 28 times more territory, 3 or 4 times more population, 11 times the GDP, 10 times the 2021 military budget, 20 times the number of active and military reserves in 2021.
So there is no reason why Vlad the Invader's 2022 "special military operation" should have been anything other than a total cakewalk -- Russian forces should have rolled over Ukraine in a matter of days, a few weeks at most.

And yet, a miracle from God, that didn't happen.
Instead, Ukrainians stood their ground and fought back, inspiring the world with their courage and grit.
The results to date are roughly this:

  1. 7% of Ukrainian territories occupied by Vlad the Invader in 2014, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas.

  2. 20% additional Ukrainian land conquered by Vlad in February-March 2022, making the maximum total of 27% of Ukraine occupied by Russia.

  3. 70% of territory conquered by Vlad in 2022 has been retaken by Ukrainians since April 2022.

  4. 14% of Ukraine's territory is currently Russian occupied, or roughly double the amount controlled in 2021.

  5. Russians have made no significant gains in territories since March 2022.
    Estimates at Bakhmut are something like 100,000 Russian casualties needed to add around 100 square miles of territory, meaning roughly 1,000 Russian casualties per square mile.

  6. Today Russians have prepared hundreds of miles of defensive works, in depth, against an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive.
How this will all play out, right now is anyone's guess.

Red6: "The point about foreign fighters again is you conflating the point I was making.
Russia never pushed to have international bans on mercenaries, their politicians and media didn’t push for that, OURS DID. "

I think that's a fantasy, maybe you've dreamed it so often it seems real to you.
I've seen nothing of such proposals.
And whatever they were, whoever made them, they went nowhere.
Also, so far as I know, there are no Ukrainian independent units, equivalent to Wagner or the Chechens.
Ukraine's units are all under unified command.

Red6: "Most of these Euro countries are smart enough to know our game.
Our influence in Europe is largely through NATO, the Russian threat isn’t really there, and they do not want to pay, you’re right."

And now you're starting to babble pure nonsense, Russian propaganda lies, which I said before you had avoided, so now I must withdraw that.
Beginning in the early 2000s, Russia has proved for all time that they are a serious threat to their neighbors, to Europe and to world peace generally.
So, we are now back to the Cold War, as cold as it ever was between the Korean & Vietnam Wars and Russia's invasion of Afghanistan.

It will not end well for Russia.

Red6: "You are right about another thing...
We share similar economic interests, both US and EU regards Ukraine.
Ukraine is about “economic interests,” not our security. "

And there it is again, the insane Russian propaganda, emphasizing economics over everything else.

The real truth is that Ukraine is "all about" the same thing as almost every war since 1914 -- defeating militarized empire builders.
When big empires invade their smaller neighbors, they must be defeated, or the world will revert to the empire-system we had in 1914, and which we fought war after war (including the Cold War) to destroy.

Red6: "The giants who have political clout in industry and the financial institutions want EU and NATO expansion into Ukraine."

Naw, the truth is that from the early 1990s until well into the early 2000s, Russia itself planned to join NATO, and was encouraged in that by leaders like our own Pres. Slick William.
Russia and NATO were very friendly until Vlad the Invader invaded Georgia in 2008.
Even then, there was reasonable cooperation until Vlad first invaded Ukraine in 2014.
And Vlad's 2014 invasion had nothing to do with NATO, it was strictly a land-grab of Crimea, under the pretext of economic discussions between Ukraine and the EU.

Red6: "Because this is a security matter for Russia, they will be pretty tenacious and they will be willing to escalate this issue beyond the scope we’re willing to play.
What that means for Ukraine ultimately is obvious, but many more people need to die before we finally end up at the same place we know we will end up at."

I think Vlad the Invader is committing "suicide by cop", so Russia will end up destroying itself, and nobody will mourn it's passing.

Ukraine will join NATO and the EU.
Russia will descend into civil war and chaos.
The biggest question is whether Russians are insane enough to take the rest of the world down with them.
I don't think they are, and I do think peace can be negotiated, once Vlad the Invader is gone from power in Russia.

So it does not have to end badly for everyone except those Russians responsible for invading Ukraine.
They must be held accountable, and Russians must help pay for rebuilding Ukraine.

82 posted on 06/21/2023 10:51:59 AM PDT by BroJoeK (future DDG 134 -- we remember)
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