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To: Red6
Red6: "In fact, even among those that took action, there are cracks today, i.e. Japan"

So far, I've not seen blatant lies in anything you posted today.
My response to much of it is: there's no reason for us to either exaggerate or minimize the levels of support or opposition each country provides Ukraine or Russia.

A small number of western countries provide high levels of direct support to Ukraine and many more provide lesser support or only lip service.

By contrast, no major countries directly support Russia, even China has said it opposes Russia's actions and will not supply weapons.
China, along with India and others, does benefit from Russia's fire-sale on Russian oil and natural gas.
These sales, so we're told, keep Russia's energy infrastructure working, but do not provide profits for Vlad's war effort.

Red6: "Israel is surrounded by mostly backward retards.
A WWII Sherman tank can still fight in that world in the 60s, 70s, 80s! An M60 (Sabra) can still fight in that part of the world in the 2000s and even present.
Furthermore, behind much of Israels military accomplishments may that be some of the wars they fought, or even their equipment, is “us” to some degree backing them.
Some of their big defense firms cooperate with ours and while they get credit, part of that system is actually based on our tech, or would never have been possible without our “foreign aid” etc."

Israel is a tiny country, roughly the size, population and GDP of New Jersey.
It has been a close US ally for many years, if not since Day One, and has received something like $250 billion in US aid, inflation adjusted, since 1949.
Given their size, they've done a remarkable job defending themselves against often very hostile neighbors.
I would even hazard to guess that, however much help Israel received, directly & indirectly, from the US, their experiences and lessons learned may have equally helped us in our research & development efforts.
So it's not a 100% one-way street.

Red6: "However, it’s not a matter of opinion or my feelings when I state that Russia is seeing growth in their GDP this year by .3%, that their inflation is low at 4%, the Ruble is strong, their unemployment is low, their infrastructure isn’t decimated, their bureaucracy is still working, they are not seeing internal instability, their industry is actually growing."

The Russian ruble is not traded internationally, so its value is stipulated at whatever the Russian bank says it is.
If the ruble were freely traded, it would be worth vastly less than the Russians claim, and Russia's economy would be seen as much worse off that Vlad now pretends.

Setting that aside, the rest of your words on this seem to be true.

Red6: "When you compare that to Ukraine you see a stark contrast.
Ukraine has a GDP 40% less than what it was pre war, they have 27% inflation, they do have instability, a damaged infrastructure...
So again you conflate the issue since the point is that when comparing Russia and Ukraine in how this war affected them in economic terms, Russia is undoubtedly not the loser here, Ukraine is."

Sure, there's no doubt -- Russia has 28 times more territory, 3 or 4 times more population, 11 times the GDP, 10 times the 2021 military budget, 20 times the number of active and military reserves in 2021.
So there is no reason why Vlad the Invader's 2022 "special military operation" should have been anything other than a total cakewalk -- Russian forces should have rolled over Ukraine in a matter of days, a few weeks at most.

And yet, a miracle from God, that didn't happen.
Instead, Ukrainians stood their ground and fought back, inspiring the world with their courage and grit.
The results to date are roughly this:

  1. 7% of Ukrainian territories occupied by Vlad the Invader in 2014, including Crimea and parts of the Donbas.

  2. 20% additional Ukrainian land conquered by Vlad in February-March 2022, making the maximum total of 27% of Ukraine occupied by Russia.

  3. 70% of territory conquered by Vlad in 2022 has been retaken by Ukrainians since April 2022.

  4. 14% of Ukraine's territory is currently Russian occupied, or roughly double the amount controlled in 2021.

  5. Russians have made no significant gains in territories since March 2022.
    Estimates at Bakhmut are something like 100,000 Russian casualties needed to add around 100 square miles of territory, meaning roughly 1,000 Russian casualties per square mile.

  6. Today Russians have prepared hundreds of miles of defensive works, in depth, against an expected Ukrainian counter-offensive.
How this will all play out, right now is anyone's guess.

Red6: "The point about foreign fighters again is you conflating the point I was making.
Russia never pushed to have international bans on mercenaries, their politicians and media didn’t push for that, OURS DID. "

I think that's a fantasy, maybe you've dreamed it so often it seems real to you.
I've seen nothing of such proposals.
And whatever they were, whoever made them, they went nowhere.
Also, so far as I know, there are no Ukrainian independent units, equivalent to Wagner or the Chechens.
Ukraine's units are all under unified command.

Red6: "Most of these Euro countries are smart enough to know our game.
Our influence in Europe is largely through NATO, the Russian threat isn’t really there, and they do not want to pay, you’re right."

And now you're starting to babble pure nonsense, Russian propaganda lies, which I said before you had avoided, so now I must withdraw that.
Beginning in the early 2000s, Russia has proved for all time that they are a serious threat to their neighbors, to Europe and to world peace generally.
So, we are now back to the Cold War, as cold as it ever was between the Korean & Vietnam Wars and Russia's invasion of Afghanistan.

It will not end well for Russia.

Red6: "You are right about another thing...
We share similar economic interests, both US and EU regards Ukraine.
Ukraine is about “economic interests,” not our security. "

And there it is again, the insane Russian propaganda, emphasizing economics over everything else.

The real truth is that Ukraine is "all about" the same thing as almost every war since 1914 -- defeating militarized empire builders.
When big empires invade their smaller neighbors, they must be defeated, or the world will revert to the empire-system we had in 1914, and which we fought war after war (including the Cold War) to destroy.

Red6: "The giants who have political clout in industry and the financial institutions want EU and NATO expansion into Ukraine."

Naw, the truth is that from the early 1990s until well into the early 2000s, Russia itself planned to join NATO, and was encouraged in that by leaders like our own Pres. Slick William.
Russia and NATO were very friendly until Vlad the Invader invaded Georgia in 2008.
Even then, there was reasonable cooperation until Vlad first invaded Ukraine in 2014.
And Vlad's 2014 invasion had nothing to do with NATO, it was strictly a land-grab of Crimea, under the pretext of economic discussions between Ukraine and the EU.

Red6: "Because this is a security matter for Russia, they will be pretty tenacious and they will be willing to escalate this issue beyond the scope we’re willing to play.
What that means for Ukraine ultimately is obvious, but many more people need to die before we finally end up at the same place we know we will end up at."

I think Vlad the Invader is committing "suicide by cop", so Russia will end up destroying itself, and nobody will mourn it's passing.

Ukraine will join NATO and the EU.
Russia will descend into civil war and chaos.
The biggest question is whether Russians are insane enough to take the rest of the world down with them.
I don't think they are, and I do think peace can be negotiated, once Vlad the Invader is gone from power in Russia.

So it does not have to end badly for everyone except those Russians responsible for invading Ukraine.
They must be held accountable, and Russians must help pay for rebuilding Ukraine.

82 posted on 06/21/2023 10:51:59 AM PDT by BroJoeK (future DDG 134 -- we remember)
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To: BroJoeK

I cannot spend the level of time required to fully address your statements.

I will focus in on what I see as key points.

The reason why Ukraine puts a Ukrainian flag on the shoulder of its mercenaries is because it’s getting fighters from Columbia, Brazil, all over, to include nations which are not party to this conflict or worse yet part of BRICS and more aligned with Russia than us. The Chechen’s of course are under their own command. Chechnya is a nation, with it’s own flag and is party to the conflict as an ally of Russia. Just like the Poles, Brits, Japanese, Australians wore their flag on their shoulder in Iraq, so do Chechens in what is now Russia. If a guy puts the Brazilian, Colombian, Argentinian, flag on his shoulder and fights for Ukraine, but that nation is not party to the war, that’s a problem.

Ukraine lost more like 20% of its landmass if you include Crimea. Nice try.

This is a limited war/conflict where Russia is conserving because they are worried about other conflicts in other areas... They like us in Iraq and Afghanistan realize this is a longer campaign and you need to rotate forces in and out. The world is a bigger place for Russia than just Ukraine. That said, Russia is smart enough to only be interested in the areas that are ethnic Russian because they are planning longer stay. LOL

They could have pounded Ukraine even harder but Ukraine is one of their trading partners and there will be a post war eventually, many people have relations, and in the East where they took and are holding the land, those people mostly do not see them as the enemy.

Russia not seizing more of Ukraine is not a function of Ukrainian military success, but rather the limited scope of Russian operations.

Look at this: http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interactive/2014/02/world/ukraine-divided/media/ukraine_map_region_language.jpg Look at this as well: http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/interactive/2014/02/world/ukraine-divided/media/ukraine_map_region_vote.jpg

Now, compare the areas shaded red above to the areas shaded red here: https://www.newsweek.com/2023/05/05/read-leaked-secret-intelligence-documents-ukraine-vladimir-putin-1794656.html#slideshow/2222794 What do you notice? They overlap!

As to this huge Russian threat, that’s all Cold War boogieman and make belief. Without the bloat from mobilization (we also can draft, call in our individual ready reserve...) Russia is actually conventionally quite small. Their armed forces compared to ours at wars begin was 55% of our ground forces, 47% of our air forces, 43% of our naval forces, with 1 whopping carrier that is not on par with any of our 11 super carriers. Russia has 44% our population, 40% the number of men reaching military age, and they do not have central and South America where we reach back too anytime we need lots of bodies. With an economy 1/10th ours, less industry, less high tech, they simply can’t keep up materially. Finally, Russia has few and relatively weak allies, whereas we have many and very powerful ones. Ukraine matters less, because it is after all, the prospect of US and NATO forces in Ukraine which caused this conflict: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/

No one believes our junk. Not really. It’s not just Germany. It’s MOST OF THEM: https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-backtracks-on-defense-spending-promise-warns-about-delays-ukraine-war/ They know Russia is not a conventional threat and while they pander to the noise in the media a little bit, they aren’t biting really because they know is junk, trash, not real. France and the UK will spend but that is because these colonial powers still have interests in Africa, South America, Asia they have to address. If you look at where they are putting their money, it’s not to deal with a major theater war, rather operations like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_French%E2%80%93Ivorian_clashes 2% is the contractual NATO minimum: https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/313A/production/_118920621_nato_defence_spending_v4_map_640.png

It’s not Russia stepping all over our turf. It’s us stepping all over theirs: Republic of Georgia (2008), Ukraine (multiple attempts), Syria, Libya, Venezuela (later 3 ongoing)...

As to the rest of the God is on Ukraine’s side, inspirational, and glorious Ukraine narrative you’re attempting to push, they lost:

(politically it’s a failure)

Ukraine’s political stated goal and the cause for this conflict was NATO membership. That’s not happening.

Ukraine had EU membership well in their reach before the war. The probability of that is very low now.

(kinetically it’s a failure)

Ukraine lost 20% of their land.

Ukraine lost 20% of their population.

Ukraine lost an industrial area.

Ukraine lost a major port city.

Ukraine’s economy is on it’s @ss as shown by GDP, inflation...

Ukraine has millions of refugees, many of which will never return most likely (brain/skills drain).

Ukraine has tens of thousands dead, likely far more than being reported in all their glorious victories, while Russia far less. As supported by the leaked documents which show an entirely different picture/situation as you want to believe: https://www.newsweek.com/2023/05/05/read-leaked-secret-intelligence-documents-ukraine-vladimir-putin-1794656.html#slideshow/2222794

But do not despair! We are absolutely unbeatable when it comes to redefining failure into success, rationalizing stupidity, creating very impressive PowerPoint slide shows in government, and creating false moral pretenses after the fact to support whatever cause we decided to stand behind, today. I’m sure the inspirational Hollywood movie will be released shortly: https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/sean-penn-joins-ukrainian-war-film-1235497572/ But is doesn’t matter how many millions of Russians (the draft dodging and porn star Stallone) Rambo kills in his movies, we still lost.


83 posted on 06/21/2023 12:46:16 PM PDT by Red6
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