Posted on 03/29/2023 7:05:34 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Thus far, Donald Trump is essentially re-running his 2016 campaign in his bid to win the presidency in 2024. He has chosen to emulate his 2016 scorched earth primary campaign and hope for the same outcome despite a far different America and a far different Donald Trump.
The electoral landscape is not the same as 2016 and Trump is no longer the brash no-holds-barred insurgent candidate with whom the corporate media was infatuated as they gave him nearly $5 Billion in free coverage, which was mostly favorable, during his primary campaign.
There are four factors that were not in play in Trump’s successful run in 2016 and that cannot be ignored in 2024. They are Trump’s highly successful but tumultuous presidency, the absolute necessity of overcoming massive voter fraud and manipulation, shifting demographic voting patterns, and as the 2022 mid-terms revealed, reliance on pocketbook and governing competency issues alone no longer win elections.
Trump addresses his first campiagn rally in Waco, Texas (YouTube screengrab)
Recently, Trump featured on his Truth Social account a December 2021 article I wrote highlighting the overwhelming success of his presidency. Despite facing gratuitous criticism from the usual quarters accusing me of being obsequious and hyperbolic; I stand by my assertion that he was the right president at the right time and thus among the pantheon of indispensable presidents.
Trump’s near unprecedented success in office came with extraordinary financial and personal cost as well as malicious media and Democrat-induced animosity from a substantial portion of the electorate. Twenty-six months after leaving office only 39% of Americans have a favorable opinion of him and 61% (which includes 25% of Republicans) do not want him to be president again.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The 2020 election was littered with brazen and unfettered ballot harvesting, mail-in voting, ballot manipulation by lawfare, unconstitutional election law changes by courts, and outright voter fraud by the Democrats in every battleground state. Unless addressed forcefully in 2024, Trump’s prospect of winning enough electoral votes is problematic. It cannot be done without an all-out concerted effort to monitor the vote, to ballot harvest and to aggressively promote mail-in and early voting among Republican and Independent voters.
But this requires a massive army of volunteers and activists which Trump’s staunchly loyal base (perhaps 33% of Republican voters) cannot provide. Instead, he will need to recruit from the entire universe of those that identify as conservative, independent or Republican in order to offset Democrat voting machinations.
The four factors:
(1) Election fraud
(2) Election fraud
(3) Election fraud
(4) Election fraud
“the corporate media was infatuated as they gave him nearly $5 Billion in free coverage, which was mostly favorable”
they were mostly favorable because I suspect that it never occurred to them that he would win.
In 2016 the Millenial and Gen-Z group accounted for 36% of all registered voters and represented less than 32% of the overall vote and voted 55-38% for Hillary Clinton. In 2020 they accounted for 44% of all registered voters, represented 43% of the overall vote and voted 54-43% for an addled Joe Biden. In 2024 it is estimated that they will total nearly 53% of all registered voters. The Democrats plan in 2024 is to focus on turnout in order to achieve a goal of at least 50% of the overall vote.
Despite rampant inflation, impending recession, massive disapproval of Biden’s job performance, and 75% of the country agreeing with the statement that the nation is on the wrong track, in the 2022 mid-terms these two generations voted 57-40% for Democrat House candidates. That lopsided vote tally is among the primary reasons the expected red wave did not materialize.
Over the past four election cycles (two presidential and two midterms) the Republican deficit has averaged 16+ percentage points. It will be nearly impossible for Trump to win the presidency without reducing the deficit with this voting bloc to at least 5-6 percentage points. Trump and his campaign have yet to acknowledge this reality or attempt to relate to younger voters or develop a strategy for capturing a significantly higher percentage of this vote as they are living and campaigning in 2016.
The 2022 mid-term election revealed that the traditional Republican reliance on pocketbook issues and governing competence to win elections is increasingly outdated. Instead, a political party’s ability to “get out the vote,” the candidate’s personal traits and affiliations and, because of the impact of the younger generations, societal issues have become the keys to winning federal elections.
If Trump continues in his quest to again occupy the Oval Office, his campaign needs to dramatically adjust to the above factors that did not exist in 2016 as the importance of the upcoming election cannot be overstated.
Sadly, I think his ‘24 campaign is more about “I” and less about “we.”
In addition, more & more people will listen to this boisterous majority.
“get out the vote” is code for massive election fraud, so my list remains valid.
Dems want no-holds-barred ballot harvesting, whether the voter is dead, moved or otherwise incapacitated.
bingo!
RE: “get out the vote” is code for massive election fraud, so my list remains valid.
I’m not saying that your list is not valid, IT IS and I’ve emphasized it many times in other FR threads.
But the Millenial and Gen-Z voter DEMOGRAPHICS cannot be ignored. Like it or not, they were a MAJOR factor in the disappointing 2022 midterms election results.
The way “Chump” is acting now won’t require cheating for the Dems to win. I don’t know anybody now that wants him to run.
Trump doesn’t realize that he won not because of his personality and tweets, but in spite of them.
He also can’t count on Biden to dismiss voters’ concern about jobs and manufacturing and trade the way that Obama and Clinton did.
Biden’s not going to make things better, but the lesson of 2022 is that enough voters are going to believe that he “cares” to put him over the top if he chooses to run.
Gee, I wonder how many mail-in ballots my neighbor will get this time? (California, of course).
2020 election she got three.
Reports of Trump’s demise are greatly exaggerated.
I don’t remember any favorable coverage of Trump from 2016, aside from FOX News and OAN.
Your response is the only sane one so far. Although I do disagree a bit. There was election fraud, but the left underestimated how much they needed.
I did not think this thread would be filled with TDS people, and those who actually think the voter base means a damn thing anymore.
Good article.
+1
RE: Reports of Trump’s demise are greatly exaggerated.
This article is NOT a report of Trump’s demise
Moved to Indiana last year, but wife and I both received vote-by-mail applications from moron (former drug-dealing felon, pardoned by former IL Gov) County Clerk for the 2022 elections.
Since neither he or anyone else has caused decisive action to be taken to counteract election fraud, the logical expectation is a repeat of 2020, only probably worse.
Those who doubt this, please explain why. Dominion isn’t gone, in fact it is fighting in court and may well prevail. How many purple states have enacted election reform laws? How many corrupt election officials have been replaced with fair and honest ones? Who has been punished for 2020 violations?
Do that, then we can talk about “factors”.
We’re screwed.
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