Analyst: Election Polls Underestimating Republican Margins By 5%

The Daily Wire ^ | October 27, 2022 | Joseph Curl

[ConservativeInPA]

The polls they are a changin’. In a generic ballot released this week by USA Today, Republicans are up four points over Democrats, 49-45. That’s a huge change from USA Today’s previous poll in July when Democrats led Republicans 44-40. So voters are clearly moving hard — and picking Republican candidates. But the polls are still underestimating the GOP strength, one pollster says. “I think the ‘polling averages’ are going to end up (on average) underestimating the Republican margins by a net of 5%,” Mason-Dixon Polling Managing Director Brad Coker told The Daily Wire in an email. “I think the GOP will end up with 54 Senate seats. I don’t track House races district-by-district, but I generally think the Republican Party will net a gain of somewhere between 25 and 35 seats.”

[ConservativeInPA]

Rich Baris has a live stream right now on Rumble - People’s Pundit

[Georgia Girl 2]

Cranking up the algorithms on the Domain machines will cure that pretty fast.

[SamAdams76]

25-35 House seats seems pessimistic to me.

I'm banking on a pickup of 50+

[JohnBovenmyer]

I’d like 56 or 57. Ideally 56 picks off Murray and Blumenthal, but doesn’t add the antl-Trump Rino in CO. I’d take the latter Rino if I weren’t afraid his vote might be enough to keep Mitch as leader. I’d put up with a new Rino if I could still ditch Mitch. Nirvana would be picking off Duckworth to reach 58. Which would imply replacing Pritzger as well as I think she’s the harder get in Illinois. But I’m not sure I could convince myself I was awake if Illinois fell.

[nathanbedford]

Fetterman was an addlepated man walking long before the debate but the national exposure of the debate has made certain that Fetterman will lose and lose big. Yet Obama, Biden, and Harris are all tripping to Pennsylvania to allegedly buck up his campaign at the risk of their own national reputations in a hopeless cause. Why?

The state of Pennsylvania is critical for the election of 2024 and the governor of that state will play a decisive role in that election in many ways, some of which are aboveboard. These Democrat pols are not coming to Pennsylvania for Fetterman, they're coming to Pennsylvania for gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro to save the state for the 2024 presidential election.

These three have no hope of growing Democrat supporters in 11 days in Pennsylvania, they are seeking only to preserve and energize the base and get that base to the polls insufficient numbers to save Josh Shapiro. The base they are aiming at is primarily African-Americans in Philadelphia. Turn that base out to vote, add a dash of cheating, and the perennial Pennsylvania Democrat soufflé is ready to serve.

The problem, overcoming the lethargy which must be settling over the Democrats in Pennsylvania and the likelihood that that lethargy will rub off on Josh Shapiro. I expect Democrats to stay home out of fear of being run over by Republicans stampeding to the polls and that should be the state of play even in downtown Philadelphia where Republicans are thin on the ground.

[ConservativeInPA]

On Rich Baris livestream he just said 65 house seats, total 250

[taxcontrol]

If true, the GOP could end up with 55 seats in the Senate.

[colorado tanker]

The Trafalgar CEO says there a lot of what he calls submerged Republicans. Don’t answer the phone. Don’t care about polls. Makes polling a real challenge.

BS. They have under-polled Republicans my entire life. They used to think it discouraged us. Now they realize it discourages the traditionally low turnout Dims.

[Nik Naym]

The reason they try to fudge the numbers to make it look like the Democrats are doing better than they really are is so that people won’t be as suspicious when they steal the elections due to election fraud. Which we all know they fully intend to do to the greatest extent they can manage.

[Cen-Tejas]

Yet Obama, Biden, and Harris are all tripping to Pennsylvania to allegedly buck up his campaign at the risk of their own national reputations in a hopeless cause. Why?

***********************************************************

.....”at the risk of their own national reputations....???

Lol, you are being funny.............right?

[nathanbedford]

Of course we all agree that national Democrat political figures are shameless and worthy of ridicule but within their own universe that is everything to them their power depends not on whether they are in fact shameful but only on their acquiring and holding power and publicly appearing to possess power.

. When national figures endorse and even personally appear on a platform with a big loser they risk exposing themselves as lacking power, about as risky for them as it is for an apparatchik of the communist party.

[QuigleyDU]

2020 was the template for all future election. Polls irrelevant in blue states.

[Revolutionary]

It will be bigger than 1994. Cue democrat tears and then riots.

[Texas resident]

Pay attention to this.

News reports are saying gas prices are going down.
Dow Jones is on the rise over the last month.

The dims are playing around with the markets to make it look like the economy is improving. It is all bovine scat.

Watch for gas prices to go higher and the markets to tank when the repubs win the midterms.

Prepare accordingly.

[Cen-Tejas]

good points!

FYI, there’s a really good hour and fifteen minute documentary out on Nathan. I think it is NEW as I’ve not seen it before. Surprisingly, it is quite balanced. If you need a link, let me know. For sure it was produced AFTER they took his statue down in Memphis.

[kvanbrunt2]

they are scared shapiro is running ads on wpht.

[ConservativeInPA]

I hope they are scared. I’m seeing Shapiro ads all over the place.

[nwrep]

The Commonbeggary of Pennsylvania has shown itself to be utterly incapable of making the right choices, so nothing will surprise me. For all we know, Fetterman has already won the election with a million ballots printed in IBEW Union Hall 406 in downtown Philly. The Commonstealth of Pennsylvania cannot be trusted.

[randita]

Newt Gingrich is way off, IMO. WIth the extinction of the Blue Dog Democrats (thanks to Obama), there aren’t nearly as many swing districts.

[RitchieAprile]

Just marked my ballot for Smiley, not super optimistic yet miracles do happen..