Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Mash image to enlarge
Hebert's Boxes
I know the Florida Gators game got moved to Sunday.
It’s not even going to hit until friday morning and most everything is already shutting down here in Jax. No schools tomorrow, employees going home early, etc.
Better safe than sorry.
By Wednesday 8 pm Tropical Storm force winds will be up past the Georgia line.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/161142.shtml?mltoa34#contents
We have been on the road since 8:40AM……..I95 through Florida smooth sailing until the West coast traffic caught up with us……LOTS of utility trucks arriving to help, God bless them
You’re right- it’s a rough wait.
My hubby and his brother are down there, in Port Charlotte helping my sister in law prepare. They went down originally to help with funeral plans for my other sister in law who passed away last week. All I can do is sit up here in New England and pray, and keep checking this thread!
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
New NHC track up at 5? Cantore’s supposedly in Punta Gorda..
another SE adjustment
000
WTNT44 KNHC 272059
TCDAT4
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix
fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains
well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West
suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages.
The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of
earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also
showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the
east side of the cyclone.
Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional
wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast
is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a
ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico.
There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian
remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This
solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast,
and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track
is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker
ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this
track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few
days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the
system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer
range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5
track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant
re-strengthening is not expected at long range.
The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged
upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level
southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation.
While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too
close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the
larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall
replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although
predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new
forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus.
I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane
or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and
destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents
should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 272058
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING
EXPECTED WITH IAN IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the west coast of
Florida to Chokoloskee. The government of Cuba has downgraded the
Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of
Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa. The Tropical Storm
Watch from the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, for the Upper Florida
Keys, Florida Bay, and for southeastern Florida from south of Boca
Raton has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Storm Surge Watch from Marineland to the Flagler/Volusia County
Line has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. The Storm Surge
Watch from the Aucilla River to the Suwannee River has been
discontinued.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Suwannee River to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to Altamaha Sound
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River
* South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Re-strengthening is expected later today
through Wednesday. Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of
Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km)
from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
140 miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte
Harbor...8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...6-9 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa
Bay...4-6 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River...3-5 ft
* Mouth of the St. Mary’s River to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-6 ft
* Dry Tortugas...3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Mouth of the St. Mary’s River,
including St. Johns River...3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound to Savannah River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River...2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
* Florida Keys...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Water levels should be receding in Cuba as Ian moves away.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected along the west coast of
Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday morning, with
tropical storm conditions possibly beginning tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in the
Florida Keys tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area on the east coast of Florida beginning
early Wednesday, spreading up to Georgia and South Carolina on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba through tonight.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following rainfall through
Thursday night:
* Western Cuba: 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals up to 16
inches. These rains may produce flash flooding and mudslides in
areas of higher terrain over western Cuba.
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with isolated
totals up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with isolated
totals up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated totals up to 12 inches.
Widespread catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding is expected
across central and west Florida beginning midweek. Widespread
considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is expected across
northern Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina
from the end of the week through the weekend. Limited river
flooding is expected over portions of the southeastern United
States into the Mid-Atlantic mid-to-late week.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across central
and south Florida.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the western Caribbean,
and the Florida Keys, and will spread northward throughout the
eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
$$
Forecaster Blake
**** Notice*****
If you’re in a mandatory evacuation zone during this storm they will not come to help you during the storm - they will be using their resources to help people in areas they know they can get to.
Expect 3 - 5 days without electricity.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft
Fort Jefferson in the Dry Tortugas is currently reporting:
81 degrees
Heavy Rain
Winds from the east at 49 mph (up 11 mph from last check)
Humidity 92%
5.15 inches of rain in the last 24 hours (up from 4.85 inches at last check)
Barometric Pressure 29.34 and dropping (down from 29.59 at last check)
The eye of Ian will pass to the west of here. Fort Jefferson is on the strong upper right quadrant of the storm
Not good for Sanibel, Captiva, Boca Grande.
Not looking good for Charlotte Harbor at all. Now that the track moved south, Ian will pump water into Charlotte Harbor like crazy. Latest advisory says 8-12ft storm surge:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/272107.shtml
My condolences for the loss of your sister-in-law. Such times are hard enough without a hurricane on top of it. Prayers for your family.
“No matter how quickly Ian loses wind intensity after moving inland, tropical rainfall is forecast to impact more than half a dozen states into Saturday,”
Source AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Courtney Travis said.
Probably little surge at all in Tampa Bay since the wind will be coming from the north and north east for almost the entire event.
I’m calling Englewood for landfall.
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