Hurricane Ian

NHC/NOAA ^ | 23 September 2022 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.

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Public Advisories

NHC Discussion

Buoy Data

Tropical Tidbits

Hebert's Boxes

[numberonepal]

I’m forced to go cut down coconuts this afternoon. I do not want them flying around.

[NautiNurse]

The county emergency management chief said expected surge is 17’.

Oh.My.God.

[NautiNurse]

Will you need to shimmy up the tree?

[numberonepal]

It’s because, as far as I know, only Zone A and mobile homes are under evac orders in Hillsborough and Pinellas. In Pinellas the order begins at 1800 this evening.

[Guenevere]

We had an RV for years……..they are made to resist 70 mph winds

The only bad time we had was in New Mexico camping in a wide open space….
..a huge storm came up and our RV rocked and rolled but held fast!
In a storm be sure and pull your slides in if you have any.
Lower your antenna….

…and don’t park under trees where limbs can hit your vehicle

Also, see if this campground has a well built ( concrete block) building in worse case scenario

[numberonepal]

The weather is going to be nasty with some possible tropical force sustained winds. There will be no paddling until probably Saturday (maybe).

[Guenevere]

We were one of those who evacuated to Orlando!
It was awful!

[numberonepal]

What Zone are you?

[numberonepal]

It’s just bayou up there. The entire town of Hudson is in the Gulf pretty much. 17’ puts the surge easily across Hwy 19 in Hudson.

[numberonepal]

Heck no. I have a chainsaw on a pole. Much safer.

[NautiNurse]

Flood Zone A. Waterfront.

[Quilla]

Thank you kindly, Guenevere.

[numberonepal]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...IAN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY INTENSIFY...
...CONDITIONS IN WESTERN CUBA TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS EXPECTED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...20.3N 83.2W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

[numberonepal]

I’ll leave the beach tomorrow afternoon and go over to Gulfport. Radar looks like showers will be pushing in tonight.

[Quilla]

My son went paddling shortly after hurricane Michael. He filmed the Herculean efforts it took to get over all the downed trees, but the testament to the strength of his inflatable paddle board was undeniable.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lcs2tdiMupw

[numberonepal]

I’ll leave the beach tomorrow afternoon and go over to Gulfport. Radar looks like showers will be pushing in tonight. Newest forecast looks like a slowdown offshore before landfall dangit.

[mewzilla]

HMON forecast model for Ian

You can run it through Saturday.

Hope it's wrong.

[NautiNurse]

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Anclote River southward
to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for Altamaha Sound to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line, including the St. Johns River.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has
been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood.

The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane
Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to
Indian Pass, and from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound.

500 PM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 155 MI SE of the Western Tip of Cuba
Max Sustained Winds...100 MPH
Moving...NNW at 13 MPH
Minimum Pressure...972 MB

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles
from the center.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the storm center.

On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

[mewzilla]

For anyone else curious, some info on the model...

HMON

[tomkat]

Your #602 made me think of the video of that '04 tsunami in Thailand .. different causes of course, but still ..   :-\