Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
Prayers!…..stay safe!
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
...IAN STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE IMPACTS
IN WESTERN CUBA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
Barometer had a pretty good drop winds at 45 to 60 indicates its finally strengthening. I would be the eye is better formed than it has been. Took forever to finaly start forming and strengthening.
My post from a couple days ago about a large surge going into Tampa Bay is becoming more likely
if the eye stays just offshore and moves inland just north SW winds would push the water into the Bay
Tampa area surge impacts
The Tampa Bay region is located on the west coast of Florida and is home to more than 3 million people, according to a recent census count.
The major coastal counties that make up the metro include Pinellas, Hillsborough and Manatee.
Historical data from NOAA shows the Tampa Bay region has not experienced a major storm surge from a significant hurricane in more than 100 years.
A study by the University of South Florida found that flooding of the Tampa Bay metro depends on a storm’s exact angle of approach. A storm south of the entrance of the bay can lead to a northeast flow, which works to limit a significant water rise. A storm near or slightly to the north of the bay’s entrance can lead to a substantial pileup of water and catastrophic flooding.
https://www.foxweather.com/learn/florida-gulf-coast-storm-surge-threat
I’m planning to call a tree company tomorrow and get my big tree into the scheduler to be taken down. The way things look now (I’m in Pensacola), I think it will survive this, but it could get weakened, so the sooner I get to it, the better.
There are big trees all over my neighborhood, so Heaven only knows what will happen.
Good evening.
“Sarasota Bay had beached manatees in the bottom of the dry bay bed.”
There’s video of this...
So everything drained. Bayous, canals etc
When Tampa Bay drained it stranded two manatees. (That I know of)
A guy who was boarding up his condo for the hurricane near Davis Island saw that 2 manatees were stranded.
(Close to the house Jeter built)
He got eight of his buddies, two blue roof canvas and two Ford pickup trucks, drove out to the middle of the Bay, rolled the critters on the tarps, lifted them up into the trucks. It was very difficult even for those big guys.
Took the animals to the Florida Aquarium to ride out the storm.
5.56mm
Good luck getting the tree taken down. My tree service stays booked 3 months out, and he takes off September, heads out west.
I saw video of people dragging stranded manatees. Another of people strolling out into Tampa Bay. Gobsmacked, amazing.
Yes, Tampa Bay has escaped the worst-case scenario for a hundred years. We’ve had several near-misses too. We shall soon learn what fate Ian shall bring upon us.
GFS , the western outliner, has come a decent way east since the 12z run at 18z
The EURO which has been the eastern outliner with a hit on Tampa Bay with the 12z run, has nudged a bit west
I expect substantial forecast track maneuvers through tomorrow.
Hillsborough County (Tampa) schools are closed Mon-Thurs. Pinellas Co. (St. Pete) closed Tues-Wed.
Got kids and grandkids on Davis Islands. House is one of the highest above Surge elevation but lots of cars and toys subject to damage. Was just there.
Manatee and Sarasota County schools are open Monday.
BFLR
What the heck. I’ve been checking on Ian’s progress all day- all over the place. The question of course- when will it turn? Meanwhile, my batteries from last year are good.
I was watching people scramble for water this week and realized Charley was the only hurricane that took out our water supply in Seminole County. Power out for 2 weeks- even our (phone) land line was down. It was brutal. But we got through it with our neighbors. We shared supplies and food, lots of hilarity and cookouts. We’ve had plenty of hurricanes since- none took out the water.
University of Tampa and Ringling College of Art cancelled classes all week.
Thanks for checking in. No good news with the forecast track. If Ian lands on or just north of St. Pete, that is worst case for Tampa Bay. Local Tampa Bay seasoned weatherman looks worried tonight.
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