Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
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Hebert's Boxes
Yes.
Cranes have been moved to safer moorings near the shore.
5.56mm
That was absolutely jaw dropping when all the water was sucked out of Tampa Bay and Sarasota Bay.
“That was absolutely jaw dropping when all the water was sucked out of Tampa Bay and Sarasota Bay.”
Much smaller body of water but the wind from Harvey blew/pushed all the water out of Copano Bay at Rockport, Tx.
A few people who did not evacuate went out during the eye passing over with spotlights and could see flounder flopping in what was then a mud flat. When the eye passed and wind changed direction some, water came rushing back in.
BTTT!!!
Showing that central pressure has gone up a tad, to 1003MB, as of 2 PM, EDT.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir
Be interesting to see the latest at the top of the hour.
Sarasota Bay had beached manatees in the bottom of the dry bay bed.
500 PM EDT Update
-------------------------------
About 220 MI SSE of Grand Cayman
About 495 MI SE of the Western Tip of Cuba
Max Sustained Winds...45 MPH
Moving...WNW at 12 MPH
Minimum Pressure...1003 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles
from the center.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Thank you for the update.
Thank you for posting and maintaining these threads.
So is this looking like a Tampa storm?
The eye of Irma was to the east of Tampa Bay. That means there was a strong north wind blowing down the bay toward the Gulf. The wind drained it. The water came back of course, but surge was not a problem.
Ian will likely pass to the West of Tampa Bay. That means when the storm passes by it will start with a south westerly wind (what we call a hot wind) pushing water from the Gulf INTO the bay. Coastal surge will be a concern whether the storm makes landfall there or not. How bad that surge is depends on how far east Ian is when it passes by.
Yes and no (hopefully). In a previous post I explain that the surge will be a concern depending on how close Ian passes to the west of Tampa Bay.
Our Tampa Bay worst case scenario is a storm that stalls out north of us and spends a day or two pushing water into Tampa Bay. Massive storm surge. I’m going inland.
Anyone roof sitting needs to take their shower curtain liner or two and some blankets... Water and wind are a cold combination.
We are preparing for a Category 2-3 hurricane visiting the Tampa Bay area. Hurricane screens are going up tomorrow. Ready to evacuate if necessary. If the storm bypasses us, hallelujah. But we are prepared.
So 30 miles inland should also prepare?
Do NOT put tape on your windows!
If in a high wind risk area, DO put a single piece of tape over your outer door keyhole to prevent the keyhole from being packed with sand.
Thanks..this may be our first hurricane 😳
Be aware that hurricanes often spawn tornadoes at some distance away from the center of the storm. Be prepared.
Prayers!…..stay safe!
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