Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Aww… standing tall and proud among the battered palm trees and vegetation…
There were a cluster of buildings at the foot of the lighthouse, but I can’t even see foundations now. Radical changes to the beach as well.
Elsewhere on Sanibel and Captiva, there are areas where visible damage on overhead imagery is so light, that both Cedar Dave and I originally thought there was a mistake, and pre-storm imagery had been posted. You have to really zoom in to find it.
Since we know the surge made it to Periwinkle Way, on the spine of the island, a lot of sheetrock, and insulation will need replaced, and my guess is that the whole US will be hurting for window glass replacements, but overall, structural damage west of the causeway seems light. A few buildings down here and there, and fewer still missing.
Not at all like Ft. Myers Beach.
Maybe... to be expected. Before the computer models got as good as they’ve become, my rough model for surge forecasting was zero to minimal at center and left of the eyes’ landfall, out to a maxima at landfall of the right eyewall, then tapering down to minimal, 2 to 3 radii out.
Geography and geometry always play a role, but in general, that’s what I see here, too. Huge storm, very powerful, and long lasting, but it didn’t ramp up to cat 5 level till shortly before landfall, and the widespread 25+ foot surge it might have sent in, didn’t have time to build up.
The power curve has me guessing. Ian ramped up after Cuba relatively slowly. That jump to cat 4/5 mostly happened at night, and then landfall failed to knock it down as rapidly as I expected.
Best guess... a pocket of exceptionally warm water just before the core started coming ashore?
Best guess... a pocket of exceptionally warm water just before the core started coming ashore?
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Here is a link to the NHC Hurricane IAN Advisory Archive
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN.shtml
Reported wind speeds went from 120 MPH at 3:00 AM ET Wednesday morning to 155 by 6:30 AM ET.
Yes, there were two buildings. It looks like quite a bit of the end of the island was washed away. Here's a 1941 aerial shot that gives some perspective.
Sorry to hear that. This storm caused so much water damage across our whole state- it’s difficult to grasp.
18 minute video
WOW this storm did lots of damage on the east coast....toook a hunk of our pier...
Flager Beach
https://www.wesh.com/article/flagler-beach-badly-battered-by-hurricane-ian/41467894#
St. Augustine
I think we can safely assume “Ian” will be retired from the recurring storm name list. Ivan, Irma, Ike, Ian. Fear the “I” storms. That is all.
Agree! We should skip “I” from now on.
This state is a mess in so many places. We’re on a water usage alert- don’t wash clothes, body, dishes and RARELY flush!🤣
So very glad I bought a pack of Chinet plates and Solo cups before Ian came to visit.
To the looky-loos: I'm not complaining! Feeling exhausted, while very blessed again today.
That video looks like a post apocalyptic scene.
There’s not a soul in sight. It reminds me of the ending of the movie “On the Beach” where everyone had died and all that was left was the infrastructure.
Very true...
StarLink internet has been deployed to 325 relief distribution hubs, providing communication access via cell phones.
FDOT is putting out bids for temporary fix for Sanibel Causeway Bridge.
Power restoration: FPL has restored about 50% in Lee Co. FL State Electrical Coop is sending another 1000 linemen to assist Lee Co. area coop. DeSantis says FL will pick up the cost share expense to get power turned on. This, because FL has the largest budget surplus in the history of the state government.
DeSantis is on fire this afternoon!
He is pretty awesome!! Love our Governor
From what I can tell, Duke Energy has been on it since the start. They’ve done the easy ones while other crews work on the challenges. I ran into some guys at my Lowe’s- they had about 30 power trucks parked there- lots of thankful people chatting with them- and off they went, at least knowing they are appreciated. They were with a power company from Texas!
Paper plates for sure! I did 3 loads of laundry on Wednesday so don’t need that. I’m pretty much on IV chocolate for now. But I’m on the edge of CBO (chocolate burn out)!
Bless Chick-fil-A. I hope they’re bringing the fantastic mac n cheese. It’s hand’s down the best after home-made!
Getting ready for bed- up at 4 for work..ZzzzzZz..
Hang in there m’dear.
I made more cookies than we could eat. They were tossed with the trash this morning.
Progressed to 70% completion removing debris from the pool. Good news--water is at least clear enough to know there are no dead bodies on the bottom. I'm consuming more NSAID than chocolate these days.
Cool! Thanks Elon!
I support:
Samaritan's Purse,
The Cajun Navy,
Team Rubicon.
YMMV
Talked to a hotel clerk in Cedar Key yesterday, as we a going there next week. She said the water receded there as the hurricane was approaching landfall.
I will be interested to hear how things look to you in Cedar Key. I haven’t been since I was a teenager, but I have fond memories of that place. Mostly because my Dad, when he was just making his way out of poverty and our family business was taking off, used to sometimes go meet the fishermen at their boats there. He’d bring home some of the finest catch from them, and we ate like kings every now and again when he did that. That was in the mid 70s. I don’t miss those days much. They were tough, but we got past them. Brandon is making those days seem very real again.
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