Posted on 09/23/2022 2:32:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The late-blooming 2022 Atlantic Tropical Storm season is making up for lost time. A tropical system has developed in the Central Caribbean Sea. This storm system is forecast to threaten continental U.S. interests next week. While the tropical wave passed south of a key geographic area known as Hebert's Box #1, it will very likely pass through Hebert's Box #2. These boxes are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida. For more information about Hebert's Boxes, see Hebert Box. See graphic below which illustrated the Hebert's Boxes.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Mash image to enlarge
Hebert's Boxes
Family is tired but SAFE!!!!!…..they just checked in
Thank you for your blessings and prayers!
I knew you would pray and I know your prayers are powerful!
Bless you!
except for the lake next to my apartment building now being in my backyard, everything is fine at my place
I’m just now hearing from my family. They are tired but safe. Several lost power, but others still have theirs. They are exhausted but feeling like they came out ok on the other side.
where they at?
My brother-in-law has a place in Bonita Springs, about 2 miles inland in a red evac zone. As of late last night he said he thought it wasn’t as bad as it could have been and that they’re on somewhat higher ground. He’ll know more later today with the light of day. It’s his second home and he’s relying on reports from local friends until he can get down there to deal with it all himself. He had hurricane damage a few years ago and I think he was pretty shocked at how much had to be fixed after a ‘minor hurricane’. Once the power went out, humidity in the house and major systems created a lot of mold and algae problems.
St. Pete and Tampa evacuated to Wesley Chapel. One SIL in Lake Wales hasn’t lost power (so far). Nieces and nephews with their kids are generally in Lakeland and Winter Haven area. They have no power.
Sounds like my other sister in Gainesville is ok, too, but we figured they might be ok. They are the most prepared of all there.
Please tell them not to let their guard down. Now is one of the most dangerous times for those not impacted by the storm surge. Down power lines and other physical hazards, upset and displaced wildlife (snakes and alligators) etc and. difficult to impossible to get emergency services. Add to that some middle aged to older folks exerting in heat and humidity at risk for heart attacks etc with limited to no emergency services and you see the nature of the problems…..
And then shot...
Prayers for all facing a long clean up and recovery. Glad they are safe.
Totally agree if you look close at how she runs the show its slanted to the left in every show,IMHO.
Yes, thanks for the reminder. All are native Floridians, but it’s good to have a reminder to be careful in the aftermath. Just as dangerous.
/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tbt/PMYDMR5MINDS3J7AU7BDLEC44I.jpg)
local news in Naples says all hospitals closed no treatment available do NOT come to ER. Please be careful everyone
No reason it took over ten years to reclassify Andrew to a 5,everyone who was the least bit involved knew it was a 5.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 291200
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
...IAN PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING, STORM SURGE AND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE
CAROLINAS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
The Tropical Storm Warning from Boca Raton to Jupiter Inlet has
been discontinued.
The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Middle of
Longboat Key south to Flamingo including Charlotte Harbor.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Jupiter Inlet Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some re-intensification is forecast, and Ian could be near
hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of South Carolina
on Friday. Weakening is expected Friday night and Saturday after
Ian moves inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center. Daytona Beach International Airport recently
reported a sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph
(113 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches)
based on surface observations.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River...4-6 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Englewood to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor... 1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the
warning area on the east and west coasts of Florida and should
spread northward along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina coasts today through Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and South Carolina through Friday.
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total
rainfall:
* Northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South
Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western
North Carolina.
Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding,
with major to record flooding along rivers, will continue across
central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river
flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida,
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through
the weekend. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding
is possible this weekend across portions of the southern
Appalachians, where landslides will be possible as well. Limited
flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two remains possible across east-central
and northeast Florida through this morning. This threat will shift
into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.
SURF: Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
Florida. Swells will increase along the coasts of Georgia,
South Carolina and North Carolina today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tampa local AM radio 970 this morning said preliminary estimates are “hundreds” dead from the storm. Part of the Sanibel Island Causeway collapsed.
Why is Cajun Navy in Tampa? Doesn’t make sense.
The yard looks like 30 bears mauled the royal poinciana and pecan trees. One fence panel down, oak tree is standing. The pool water is brownish color. Looks like dirt and mulch. I was out before dawn hauling limbs out of the road and into the yard. Genuine yard salad. Lots of work ahead.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.