House Incumbents Being Ousted at Record Rates; It's Worse for Republicans

msn.com ^ | 9/1/22 | Nick Reynolds

[cotton1706]

Sitting members of Congress are being ousted from their seats at record rates, with Republicans constituting the majority of losses this election cycle.

With the 2022 primary season coming to a close, 15 members of Congress have lost their seats so far this year, representing the highest degree of turnover since the Obama administration, when the Tea Party revolution and an upswing in progressive activism led to 13 incumbents losing their primaries.

Though the defeats of New York Democratic Representatives Mondaire Jones and Carolyn Maloney in late August were the races that pushed the number into record-setting territory, the brunt of losses in Congress have been felt among Republican incumbents, several of whom supported the impeachment of former President Donald Trump over his role in the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol.

The first election year after a redistricting cycle, according to historic election data, tends to see a higher level of incumbent turnover, often due to changing district dynamics or, like in Maloney's case, district boundaries that pit them against their fellow incumbents.

Trump's influence on the electoral environment, however, played a major factor. Of the more than a dozen incumbents to lose their primaries, nine were Republicans, with four among the few conservatives who voted to impeach the former president.

Others, like Illinois Representative Rodney Davis and West Virginia Representative David McKinley, lost to candidates backed by Trump as a result of other factors, including newly drawn district boundaries and the perception that they were too moderate to stand on the modern Republican platform.

Snip

The shift has been even more cataclysmic down the ballot. According to an analysis by Ballotpedia, 202 incumbents have lost their primaries this election cycle, eclipsing the previous 20-year high set in 2018 by nearly 60 members.

[tbewin]

Yes, because winning seats and keeping Soros off our backs is way more important than some pyrrhic victory on abortion...which isnt even going to end abortion...just a stupid stupid stupid decision by the supreme court with the worst timing possible!

[GOPJ]

We have to have enough people to take control of the house and senate. I would accept a Biden supporter if that put us over the line. Well, maybe not a real ‘Biden supporter’ but close. We can’t suit up to play the game if we don’t have ‘ll people to hit the field’... well, you know what I mean.

[Jamestown1630]

They vote along lines of political philosophy based on knowledge of the Constitution. ‘Parties’ change with the wind whenever it’s expedient.

[tbewin]

Most young women ARE NOT MAGA!

[tbewin]

100% GOPJ, you get it! I’m trying to get others on here to see it. Conservatives are too lazy for my liking thinking that people will just see things their way or that God will help the Republicans (which is ridiculous)!

[Bubba_Leroy]

In congressional elections, vote for the most conservative candidate in the Republican primary and then vote for whoever gets the Republican nomination in the general election. IMHO, even a RINO is better than a democrat when control over the House and Senate is at stake, unless you like Pelosi and Schumer being in charge.

[Boogieman]

“If liberals want to abort their kids...i say good riddance, less liberals.”

And they still can, in liberal states.

“You religious nuts are hurting our party!”

Go found your own party then. Or maybe you will get your wish and all us “religious nuts” will stop voting Republican and you can be a permanent minority for another 40 years until you beg us to come back.

“you have risked it all on a fringe issue!”

Serious question: do you think slavery was a “fringe issue” in the early 1800s?

[Boomer]

The irony of America First (non GOPe/RINO) candidates being preferred because they will fight for us is not lost on politically savvy voters.

Neither is the radicalized progressive Marxist candidates for the demon party.

Yin and Yang. Balance must be restored.

This is also why 40% of Americans believe a civil war will happen within the next decade.

[FreedomPoster]

What we really need is similar turnover among the deep state permanent bureaucracy.

[ProgressingAmerica]

"That was before the supreme court screwed us and made abortion a top issue"

Oh good grief.

Protecting the Constitution is way more important than petty little political battles or one election cycle.

SCOTUS did the correct thing and scored such a blow against progressivism that it will be felt longer than the election. The election is not going to be as important when we look back and compare the two next June, or when we look back and compare a decade from now. A lot of this "OMG ONOZ MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION EVERZ!!" hype is just that, it's hype. We're almost to November. It'll simmer down soon.

You have to remember, the McConnell wing of the party is going to screw us over after the election and they are going to stonewall us. They're doing it now, even if it costs some elections here or there. But the SCOTUS decision is clean, it is good, and the GOP cannot take it away from us.

[gov_bean_ counter]

How about…
Worse for Republican leadership…

[tbewin]

Total BS analogy! Abortion is a fringe because it was last on the list of priorities for voters and with one stupid decision, just killed any chance of making inroads with a key voting block! Also, when Democrats say “republicans will take away gay marriage” or any other right as they see it, they will believe it because of this one decision. Wake up! We need the religious right at the moment but were turning people to the dark side by the numbers every day. We cannot appeal to those ready to come to our side by wanting to end gay marriage or abortion however so your side is going to have to capitulate.

The religious right is also known for sitting out key elections because candidates do not meet their ultra high standards!

[tbewin]

No...winning elections is the most important thing. Why do you think that Democrats fight so hard EVERY DAY to make that happen???

[Jamestown1630]

You don’t seem to understand that the decision has to do with returning prerogative to the individual STATES, where it always should have been on an issue like this.

[tbewin]

Blow against progressivism??? It’s a completely empty victory that could cost us in November. When they put more judges to their liking, Roe will be re-established...in the meantime, all states except maybe Alabama and Utah will legalize it and help Democrats keep their governorships and help a few more win them ousting incumbent republicans. You are so tone deaf when it comes to politics it isnt even funny!

[tbewin]

Why??? What does that accomplish??? Was some technicality so important to screw us over in November for???

[Reily]

The American political fault line is how much or how little centralized national government should exist. It doesn’t matter what the political parties call themselves it always comes down to that. As far as the Rat appointed USSC justices go all of them view the states as quaint relics of the past. If they had their way the states would be nothing more then lines on a map. Any other view would interfere with the central government’s ability to build utopia.

[PapaBear3625]

The media, on the other hand, wrings its hands over the loss of these oligarchs.

Stability in office is crucial for the viability of the Deep State, which depends on trading favors.

When you give a favor to somebody, you need confidence that when the time comes to return the favor, that he (or his hand-picked successor) will be in a position to do so. If that can't be relied upon, then the system falls apart.

This is why it should be a priority to generate "employment churn" in government.

[GOPJ]

Some people don't want to be convinced... don't waste your time on them... but keep stressing how important it is for us to take control. Even if we had two or three people who hated us and hated Trump - IF we had control of the House and Senate they could be sidelined... Democrats have been known to intentionally choose conservative sounding democrats to run in red areas. They know a progressive can't win - but they also know if they lose power total purity will be useless.

Our people need to understand we 'forfeit the football game' if we can't put 11 people on the field. It's an automatic loss. So yeah, a 135 pound linebacker isn't our first choice but he's better than totally giving up before we have a chance to play. WE MUST TAKE THE HOUSE AND SENATE TO PLAY.

[Jamestown1630]

What part of the Tenth Amendment do you consider just ‘some technicality’?