Posted on 06/27/2022 8:10:00 AM PDT by frogjerk
The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.
Latest estimate: 0.3 percent — June 27, 2022 The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2022 is 0.3 percent on June 27, up from 0.0 percent on June 16. After recent releases from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the National Association of Realtors, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -9.0 percent to -8.1 percent.
The next GDPNow update is is Thursday, June 30. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a list of upcoming releases.
(Excerpt) Read more at atlantafed.org ...
I blame SCOTUS for the Biden/Democrat recession.
This recession now underway will definitely erase any memories of good economic times under Clinton and Hussain Nobama. The days of easy recovery with Fed money printing are over.
They HAVE to have something ABOVE ZERO in order to avoid the ‘R’ Word........................
That was always gonna happen. R’s and D’s are always spenders. They will never stop the spending unless the Fed brings in higher interest rates.
Total BS.
Actual Americans know things are bad right now.
(Insert the Howard Beale speech)
“They HAVE to have something ABOVE ZERO in order to avoid the ‘R’ Word........................”
Yep, therefore the Books shall be cooked.
They will keep the numbers above water until after the ‘24 election, and then retroactively report the real numbers.
We may have some economic growth. Problem is real wages are sinking fast. This feels the same as a recession when it comes to the personal consumer (and voter).
Most Americans don’t pay attention to economic indicators.
They have their bills and bank accounts.
When the former goes up, and the latter down…they know.
If ever......................
Only if they can somehow pin it to Trump or other Republicans...
Folks, this is the change in GDP, not the actual GDP.
The US makes a whole lot of stuff. That hasn’t stopped.
They’re already trying.....................
As expected they will use every trick including fudged data to prevent a declared recession. Just like MSM let these bastards remove food and gas from the inflation calculation. So now we .3% growth, just enough to avoid the R word.
I have so many fond memories of cherry jubilee’s at midnight buffet’s on cruise ships during 1980’s, 1990’s and early 2000’s. Those are now gone by the wayside.
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