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How to end the Ukraine war --- A negotiated agreement remains elusive because the US has not supported it while encouraging Ukrainian resistance
asiatimes.com ^ | May 14, 2022 | Stephen Bryen

Posted on 05/16/2022 1:23:17 PM PDT by elpadre

What are the possible outcomes of the Ukraine war?

Russian Withdrawal: Russia could decide to cut its losses and abandon the fight in Ukraine. It is unlikely that the current Russian leadership will do so, but there is no guarantee that Vladimir Putin will remain Russia’s leader.

If there is an internal upheaval in the Kremlin, then a new leader, even if a hardliner, could decide to pull out, blame the debacle on Putin, and, as they say, rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Go All Out: A second, dreadful possibility is that the Russians, who anyway think they are at war with NATO, could take more extreme action along a possible front that stretches from the Baltic to the Black Sea.

Right now it would seem that Russia is in no condition to prosecute a wider war, but Russia could gamble that by raising the stakes it could push Europe to split from the United States and promote a bigger political deal that might or might not cover Ukraine.

For example, Russia could get a guarantee from the Europeans of no NATO in Ukraine. Any of the European powers could also give such a guarantee unilaterally, but so far because of US pressure won’t for now. But that could change.

Continue the War: Russia can decide to tough it out and keep up the pressure on Ukraine, accepting heavy casualties and equipment losses as part of the bargain. The downside of this approach is that Russia will end up far weaker in the end, and the prize, if one wants to call it that, is hardly worth the expenditure.

Moreover, the ability of Russia to mobilize support internally given their heavy losses could backfire on Russia’s leaders and chase them from power. All kinds of accusations are .......

(Excerpt) Read more at asiatimes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
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To: Cronos

Ha! Nice catch on Ganeenead’s prior “predictions”.


21 posted on 05/16/2022 2:05:53 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: elpadre

Extending this war will only encourage more nuclear escalation which will either go live or force a resolution.

Meanwhile, every other significant state without them is accelerating plans for development. Not just the Iranians are watching.

Biteme’s handlers are beyond foolish.


22 posted on 05/16/2022 2:06:40 PM PDT by nicollo
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To: Cronos

Ukrainians are pawns in the battle between the shady globalists who control the Biden admin and any sovereign state.

Russia just happens to be sovereign state that’s currently in the globalist crosshairs.

Unless, of course, you believe everything you hear from NYT, PBS, ABC, MSNBC, CBS, NBC, the Democrats, etc., etc., etc.


23 posted on 05/16/2022 2:13:23 PM PDT by Prolixus (In all seriousness:)
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To: elpadre

Gee. They will call this guy Putins puppet in 3…2…1…
Negotiations should have been first!


24 posted on 05/16/2022 2:14:01 PM PDT by griswold3 (When chaos serves the State, the State will encourage chaos.)
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To: elpadre
The only one I've seen even talking about peace negotiations is....

Trump!


25 posted on 05/16/2022 2:15:47 PM PDT by airborne (Thank you Rush for helping me find FreeRepublic! )
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To: elpadre

I’m astonished by the article and the responses. There’s so much wrong here. Putin started this because he has a mistaken idea about Ukraine, whether it’s a nation or not, the strength of his military, and the situation on the ground before the conflict. Putin has been proven wrong on every point. Having dealt with company presidents who have brought their company to the brink of bankruptcy by similar misunderstandings, I’m not confident a man who is this wrong can adjust to reality. If Putin can’t accept the facts, then the war can’t end unless either Russia can’t continue it, or someone kills Putin.

As for whether we should be involved...Russia’s goals are to reestablish the old Soviet Union. Putin’s made this pretty clear. The geographic features that do this are on the other side of Ukraine. Also, halfway through Poland. It’s better to fight this fight here than in a NATO country. Don’t say that Putin wouldn’t attack NATO. Anyone this disassociated with reality can’t be depended on to act logically. Not by the logic the rest of us use.

As for locking Ukraine out of NATO, they were trying desperately to not have this fight and that was their reason for joining NATO. Are we saying, “no, you need to be a vassal state to an autocratic dictator who will control who runs your government?” Really? Because people who are free tend to do much better than people who are like those subjugated into some Borg-like amalgamation of evil. The reason Russia is so poor now is the oligarchs have drained it like vampires and moved the money out of Russia because Russia isn’t safe even for them.

As to why we care...because Russia (and China) are horribly threatened...not by America’s power, but by the fact America exists. That’s a scary thought. If Russia loses we might do a Marshal Plan and bring them into a more globalized and non-threatening world. But unless America plans on being the world’s cop, God I hope not, then we need a world of stable democracies.


26 posted on 05/16/2022 2:15:58 PM PDT by Gen.Blather (Wait! I said that out loud. Sorry.)
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To: rottweiller_inc
No. I just served in the U.S. military during the Cold War and beyond, and believe that rewarding an aggressor makes everyone less safe. Not exactly an unheard-of opinion.

Moscow/Putin has only themselves to blame for this. If they'd stopped at the borders of the disputed eastern territories, negotiations might have happened. But once they went beyond that - coupled with public threats against actual members of NATO and the assertion of a right to all of Ukraine - they took that off the table.

Having previously stolen Crimea doesn't help matters.

What I think is personally going on is that a subgroup of Trump supporters have somehow bought into the idea that Putin is really just the Russian variant of Trump, an ally against the ubiquitous "Deep State", and therefore are rooting for Putin to win this war. It's "Q" on steroids. And I personally find that kind of support for Russia/Putin to be absolute despicable.

I don't have the same opinion of someone like Rand Paul, who pretty much opposes all foreign aid and military support on principle. But I believe he is in the minority.

27 posted on 05/16/2022 2:17:25 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: Gen.Blather
Didn't expect something that eloquent from a General Blather. Nicely said.
28 posted on 05/16/2022 2:20:26 PM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: elpadre

Chinese propaganda.


29 posted on 05/16/2022 3:17:56 PM PDT by fuente (Liberty resides in three boxes: the ballot box, the jury box and the cartridge box--Fredrick Douglas)
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To: Cronos
The waf ends the moment Putin pulls out his horde.

What is a waf?

30 posted on 05/16/2022 3:31:46 PM PDT by JonPreston (Q: Never have so many, been so wrong, so often)
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To: ganeemead

You guys have been saying that for weeks. There won’t be any mass surrenders. The Ukrainians know what the Russians will do to them, plus they’re fighting for their homes. They aren’t going to roll over.


31 posted on 05/16/2022 3:34:53 PM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
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To: elpadre

The most likely thing is escalation, and the most likely escalation is interdiction of arms shipments with conventional weapons on the territory of Ukraine.

IOW, with regards to globohomo and the Blue American Empire, raise but don’t call.


32 posted on 05/16/2022 3:39:39 PM PDT by Jim Noble (Love's redeeming work is done)
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To: suthener
If the war ends it will be a lot more difficult for our elected representatives to launder $40 billion back to themselves.

Yep. Our Uniparty wants to build the biggest army in Europe and is salivating at all the opportunities for graft and kickbacks that all these juicy government contracts will provide.

33 posted on 05/16/2022 3:40:56 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024)
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To: elpadre

A negotiated settlement would mean appeasing Pootie-Poot to a some extent, and no good can come from that.


34 posted on 05/16/2022 5:55:51 PM PDT by Paal Gulli
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To: Paal Gulli

“...appeasing Pootie-Poot to a some extent...”

according to the British and French intelligence services Putin has cancer and scheduled for surgery. He may finally realize he is mortal and the end is near. If that information is true, Putin could well take a different role and accept a just peace (whatever a just peace is) and try to repair the monster legacy he has earned.

I know - wishful thinking, but hope springs eternal!


35 posted on 05/16/2022 6:41:56 PM PDT by elpadre (W)
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To: elpadre

The Ukrainians have been able to “hold out”? They are kicking the Russians asses.

And as for the US not supporting a negotiated settlement, we just had a top Russian official declare and reject, the United States’ suggested settlement which would allow Russia to keep Ukrainian territory.


36 posted on 05/16/2022 7:13:05 PM PDT by Williams (Stop Tolerating The Intolerant)
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To: Williams

“..we just had a top Russian official declare and reject, the United States’ suggested settlement which would allow Russia to keep Ukrainian territory....”

I wasn’t aware there had been any activity of that nature. Was that when Austin talked with his Russian counterpart?


37 posted on 05/16/2022 7:23:56 PM PDT by elpadre (W)
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To: Bruce Campbells Chin

And you’re just chock-full of Cold War mentality and you would never ever say a good word about rights or ever even consider that they might be right in this


38 posted on 05/17/2022 6:47:42 AM PDT by rottweiller_inc (inter canem et lupumWell for me I think we shouldn’t have gotten involved in the first place I think)
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To: rottweiller_inc
And you’re just chock-full of Cold War mentality and you would never ever say a good word about rights or ever even consider that they might be right in this.

Who do you mean by "they"?

39 posted on 05/17/2022 7:23:53 AM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin (A1 AA aaaw3 aww was aq)
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To: Jim Noble
The most likely thing is escalation, and the most likely escalation is interdiction of arms shipments with conventional weapons on the territory of Ukraine.

Russia interdicting shipments on Ukrainian territory isn't an escalation. It's been part of the war all along.

40 posted on 05/17/2022 8:30:51 AM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin (A1 AA aaaw3 aww was aq)
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