Ukraine is still losing so what is the plan

Russian and Donbas forces have cleared the city of Mariupol except for the giant metallurgic complex of Azovstal which is held by some estimated 4,000 men, including many from the fascist Azov battalion.

On Sunday Russia opened corridors across the front line and asked for those forces to surrender. However the Zelensky government ordered them to stay and to continue to bind Russian forces which otherwise could be used elsewhere: Russia had given the Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol until Sunday morning to lay down their weapons or be “eliminated.” On Sunday, the forces at the plant ignored the deadline, and Ukrainian officials vowed that they would not surrender. In response, the Russian assault intensified, with missiles and bombs hitting the city and new attacks occurring near the plant, according to the Ukrainian military. ... Ukrainian officials said on Sunday that the struggle was not over for Mariupol, which for two months has tied up Russian troops and resources that are badly needed elsewhere. The Azovstal complex is a 2 by 2 miles industrial area. It can be surrounded and controlled by a relatively small force. Those within the area no longer have heavy artillery ammunition and presumably little other supplies. The Russian forces can see and bomb anything that moves on the open ground and can otherwise sit back and wait their enemies out.

I do not believe that holding on to Azovstal will significantly delay the upcoming second phase of the Russian operation which will surround and destroy the Ukrainian army on the Donbas front.

The Russian military has two huge advantage over the Ukrainian forces in the east. One is of course its air superiority. The other is the unimpeded supply line which allows it to get as much heavy artillery ammunition, fuel and food to its forces as it needs.

Without fuel the Ukrainian army can not move and without constant supply, especially of large amounts of artillery munitions, it can not counter Russian artillery which will be in heavy use against it.

This pictures of a former Ukrainian position show the devastating result of such a situation.

Nearly all of the Ukrainian ammunition and fuel supplies have been bombed and destroyed. What is trickling in through its western borders has difficulties to reach the eastern front and is anyway not enough to supply an actively fighting and maneuvering army.

On April 16 Russia shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane that was bringing 'western' weapons to Odessa. Today it destroyed another ammunition depot near Lviv were 'western' weapons are crossing the border into Ukraine. Some bits of fuel allegedly still reach the Ukraine through trains from Moldova. But that is far from enough.

Here is a week old report on the fuel situation: Since the beginning of the war, the number of gas stations in Ukraine has decreased three times, and private fuel consumption has decreased by about the same amount, said Sergey Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group.

“According to our estimates, a third of the total number of gas stations is operating, this is about 2.5 thousand stations, before the war there were 7.5 thousand. Of course, the main reason is the lack of fuel. Consumption has also decreased three times compared to the pre-war level,” he said at a closed briefing at the Media Center in Lviv on Monday.

At the same time, Kuyun noted that traders or network owners are forced to provide their most strategic and powerful facilities, located mainly in regional centers or on main routes, while peripheral stations are forced to stand idle, although there are also a lot of consumers there.

According to him, the shortage of fuel became especially aggravated after the shutdown of the Kremenchug Oil Refinery as a result of a missile attack by Russian invaders. ... On April 2, the Russian invaders destroyed the infrastructure of the Kremenchug oil refinery with their shelling, and it stopped working. The damage done daily to the Ukrainian military and military industry is huge. One can get a sense of it when one reads through the briefings of the Russian defense ministry. From today's morning brief (here in full as some have difficulties accessing the site): The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

High-precision air-based missiles destroyed 16 military assets of Ukrainian overnight.

Among them: 5 enemy command posts, 1 fuel storage facility, 3 ammunition depots, as well as military personnel and equipment concentrated in Barvenkovo, Gulyai Pole, Kamyshevakha, Zelenoe Pole, Velikomikhailovka and Nikolaev.

Operational-tactical aviation hit 108 areas of concentration of Ukrainian manpower and military equipment.

In addition, 1 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle was shot down by an air-to-air missile near Buda.

Army aviation destroyed 8 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, as well as up to a company of enemy manpower near Pashkovo, Veseloe and Illichevka.

Missile troops struck with high-precision Iskander land-based missiles. 4 arms depots and Ukrainian military equipment were destroyed, as well as 3 areas enemy manpower concentration near Popasnaya, Yampol and Kramotorsk.

18 command posts, 22 artillery batteries, 1 OSA-AKM anti-aircraft missile system, as well as 275 enemy strong points and areas of concentration of enemy manpower were hit.

Russian air defence means shot down 3 Ukrainian combat aircraft in the air: 2 MiG-29 fighters near Izyum and 1 Su-25 near Avdeevka.

11 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were also shot down in the air near Klimovo, Nevelskoe, Novotroitskoe, Izyum, Panteleimonovka, Sladkovodnoe and Yasnoe. 10 large-calibre rockets fired by Ukrainian multiple rocket launchers at Chernobaevka were intercepted.

In total, 139 aircraft, 483 unmanned aerial vehicles, 250 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,326 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 254 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,004 field artillery and mortars, as well as 2,184 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation. This has now been going on daily for more than a month. While the precision of the above numbers is somewhat uncertain I do not think that they are exaggerated by much. Yesterday there was no particular heavy fighting and the equipment destroyed on that one day alone was already more than what the US has in total promised to send.

That means that the military destruction and defeat of the Ukrainian forces in the country's east is all but assured.

What then is the strategy that government in Kiev and its overlords in Washington DC are following? Why has the Ukraine not given up? Why didn't it continue to negotiate with the Russian side?

Is their hope that their daily over the top 'Russia is losing' propaganda will create enough political momentum for a large scale NATO intervention?

Russia is obviously prepared for it. It has so far held back large parts of its own forces. Russia has at least 12 tactical missile artillery brigades, each with 36 Iskander missile launchers and 144 fire ready missiles. Only three of the those brigades plus a third of two other ones have so far been committed: Three brigades, or a total of 36 Iskander launchers (two missiles each plus two resupply missiles per launcher) were deployed to Belarus as part of the buildup to war in Ukraine. Two additional brigades (12 launchers) were also assigned to Russia's Southern Military District and moved forward in the area of Belgorod near the Russian border; and to the area of Krasnodar, south of Ukraine. Most of the Russian airforce has likewise been held back.

On March 24 the Pentagon claimed that Russia was running out of precision munitions. However, if the Russian defense ministry report is correct, at least 16 precision air ground missiles and 7 Iskander were used just yesterday. To me that does not sound like 'limited supplies'.

Since Saturday Gonzalo Lira, who has been reported from Kharkov, is no longer reachable. He seems to have been captured or killed by the Ukrainian Gestapo-like SBU. Sadly I had expected that. Doing hours of Youtube live streams when your enemy controls the internet in your area is not very smart.

The Russian cruiser was damaged last week and sunk. The ship is listing and so it must have additional damage below its waterline. The picture shows fire midships on its port side where two of its close-in weapons systems and their ammunition storages are. The ships crane is deployed right above that area. The large anti-ship missiles towards the bow and the S-300 air defense launchers behind the deckhouse seem intact. The port side life rafts are no longer where they were and must have been launched. That means that a significant part of the crew likely got off the ship alive before it sank.

The picture does not tell us what has happened. Was this an accidental ammunition explosion as Russia had first claimed or was the ship hit by Ukrainian (or British?) anti-ship missiles as the Ukraine is claiming? We will have to wait for further reports to know that.

CORRECTION:
Actual date of article April 18, 2022 at moonofalabama blog.

INTERESTING NOTEs:

Moon of Alabama

Moon of Alabama - Left BiasedFactual Reporting: Mixed - Not always Credible or Reliable
LEFT BIAS

History

Moon Of Alabama is a political blog founded in 2004 and according to its about page they are an independent and open forum for members of another blog called the Whiskey Bar.

Moon Of Alabama states it purpose as “to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon’s Whiskey Bar writings.”

A Daily Kos article describes Blogger Billmon (pseudonym) as one of the earliest and leading guest bloggers of Daily Kos and a self-admitted financial writer working for a big Wall Street firm.

I personally think that it is time for Ukraine to sue for peace and cede the eastern area to Russia.

That said, the more damage they inflict, and the harder Ukraine makes the invasion and occupation, the less likely that Russia will rush into other countries in the region if they have a mind to do so.

I think it's going to be a stalemate. Russia is going to build a land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine holds on to Odessa so they won't be landlocked. Might be like the Korean War here. Eastern part of Ukraine will be ruled by a puppet that reports to Moscow. That part of Ukraine might be as good as gone.

Novorussia map scenario is most likely at this point.

““Some of the Ukrainian defenders are described as “fascist”, yet no negative description is attached to the Russian forces.”

You’ve already got that wish. The Russians have invaded the Ukraine and are slowly retaking it from its separation in 1991. And they are a fascist state. Not quite like Mussolini’s Italy, but in that direction.

As far as the Azov political group goes, some of the Ukrainian defenders are described as “fascist.” And there has been a lot of negative description in the near past attached to the Russian forces. And some of it was the truth.

There is no doubt the Russians have invaded the Ukraine. And they are slowly taking it. As far as Azov goes, Azov is a far-right all-volunteer infantry military unit whose members – estimated at 900 – are ultra-nationalists and accused of harboring neo-Nazi and white supremacist ideology. Can’t get much more fascist than that. And the number of them is greater than advertised as they have been fighting Russian forces since the start of the Donbas war in 2014. They continue to grow.

wy69

So WTH is wrong with posting news that favors Russia? All we get from the MSM are reports that are basically Ukrainian propaganda. The same applies to everything you and the other Zelenskyy fans continuously post on FR. There’s nothing wrong with freepers reading news from multiple sources and then making up their own minds about the issue...because, as usual, the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Set up a barbecue and blow all that aroma into there.

Dont need to be to close. Close enough to blow it in there.

I gotta watch and see if they are that smart. I doubt it. The whole bunch of them are barbarians-both the Ukrainians and the Russians.

“What is the plan?”

Send arms the US has in storage to Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
Ask Congress for lots of money to go to contractors to replenish the arms that were sent.
When the arms get to Ukraine, the Russians blow them up, prompting requests for replenishment.

Rinse and repeat.

Corporate welfare for the arms contractors and big contributions for the big guy.

Question: Will Biden run in 2024?
Answer: Unless the Democrats decide he is too much of a liability, of course he will. Why disrupt the gravy train?

all the politics here look like a rats nest.
i do know that one sumbitch came into another sumbitch’s yard, and the two of them are fighting it out, over “its my yard”.

the one that bought the land at a union member fire sale, and put a bome up there.
the other guy is saying the land sale was illegal, because it was still union property, and wants it back, and, is determined to ruin the land, the home, and kill all the other guy’s family, and him, just to get it back.

and, some other sumbitch wants the good ol’ US of A to get in the middle of this thing???.

ain’t worth it, won’t get nothin’ outta it, ‘cept some good folks killed, and families goin’ boo hoo.

AIN’T VOOD ENOUGH REASON NO HOW, PARDNER!!!

I have no way of knowing WHO to believe in this war nor the propaganda from both sides.
However, I do know WHAT happened. Russia invaded Ukraine.
We all know WHEN.
I also know WHERE it happened. Ukraine. Not an EU or NATO member.
I do not know WHY, but I have my opinions. Apparently so does all the media because that is all we seem to be hearing, Opinions.

Since Russia invaded a sovereign country, seemingly with any provocation except maybe paranoia, I have to say my sympathies lie with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.

So WTH is wrong with posting news that favors Russia? All we get from the MSM are reports that are basically Ukrainian propaganda.

I agree, as Freepers are unusually able to think for themselves.

There is SO much lying on both sides. Heck, look how much our government lies to "We the People" when we are NOT at war?

That said, the Russian propagandists are sometimes their own worst enemy. Catholic libertarian Tom Woods had a retired European agent (I forget which country) on to discuss his perspective (VERY pro-Russian, but pretending to be unbiased) and I heard him out for the better part of an hour. But then, he made a FATAL mistake. He actually likened the Russian speaking people in Ukraine to George Floyd.

I am NOT kidding! He thought Woods' audience, and conservative Catholics like me who find Woods intelligent and informative would be persuaded by saying that Ukraine is persecuting Russian people the way U.S. police persecute black people like George Floyd! From there, he repeated the possibility of their subs launching nukes to the U.S. mainland. Now THAT argument MIGHT sway a pragmatic libertarian (oxymoron alert) who does a quick cost-benefit analysis, but it undermined the high-minded arguments made earlier.

On the Ukrainian side, Zelensky is doing his best to annoy people like me who are not eager to start WW III, acting like the U.S. and NATO have an obligation to step in. He seems to be kissing up to Biden and the lefties (because they are in power? Or long standing "relationship"?)

I just want them to cut a deal and be done. I am also doubtful that so many Ukrainians are eager for the Russians to take over. The Commie version of them did a number of the country, starving it within the lifetime of centenarians who are alive today.

The ~~Ukraine~~ WEF plan is to, by any means possible, drag Western Europe, NATO and Uncle Sugar into the fray.

There, corrected it.

Zelenskyy is Schwab's (and therefore, the WEF') poodle. THEY want the West and Russia in a destructive war. They, especially Bill-zebub Gates, want MASSIVE population reduction. IF Russia and NATO go toe-to-toe, they figure that NUKES will play a BIG part!

Nuke NYC, Los Angeles, San Fransicko, Boston, Houston, you've just destroyed America! Industry destroyed, millions dead, food production, distribution destroyed. Among those that survive, there would be riots, mobs seeking the heads of America's 'leaders'.

Americans already distrust their 'leaders'. Schwab, et al., believe that in such a scenario, THEY could quickly take over, offering 'peace' and 'an end to wars'. 'THEY' will promise to provide for all your needs, but "YOU will own NOTHING and be happy!" (or else)

Of course, if you resist, your job will disappear, you will be unable to transact any purchases, you will simply starve to death. Crime against your 'masters' (the WEF), will result in elimination with EXTREME prejudice!

Yes, Ukraine, under the WEF puppet, Zelenskyy, certainly DOES want to drag the West into a war with Russia! He, and ALL WEF/YGL types need to be introduced to s series of tall trees and short ropes!

Note that in 1991, the Presidents of 3 USSR SSRs: Russia (Yeltsin), Belarus and Ukraine, decided, JOINTLY, to split up the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

Ukraine didn’t separate from Russia in 199q, both of them, along with Belarus, decided to end the union of Soviet socialist Republics

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