Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
This forecast was given to us by one of Elvira Nabiullina’s deputies. According to him, this will happen in the event of a complete ban on the dollar and the euro in Russia, which may be introduced in the fall.
“It will be a disaster. 300-400 rubles per dollar is not a figure of speech, but a real figure. I hope Vladimir Vladimirovich will not decide to ban the dollar. Otherwise, we need to think about how to provide food and money to pay for utilities to the low-income strata of the population. They simply cannot afford the new prices and tariffs,” said a representative of the Central Bank.
He also repeated the opinion of another of our sources in the Central Bank: Alexander Dugin, who initiated the ban on the dollar, is engaged in subversive activities and should go to prison .
Dugin refused to comment on these words. And the Kremlin does not want to say yet whether Vladimir Putin will decide to ban the dollar.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4388
Russian state news outlets editorialized comments by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and claimed that he said that the Ukrainian state will no longer exist by 2034, likely to support the Kremlin's efforts to prepare the Russian public for a long war in Ukraine while promising that Russia will complete its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade. Russian media editorialized comments made by Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev in an interview with Russian outlet Argumenty i Fakty (AIF) on July 17.[1] Medvedev claimed that “it is not for nothing” that NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg suggested that Ukraine could be able to join the alliance within the next ten years, concluding that Ukraine will “never” join NATO because NATO leadership will have changed by 2034 and because “it is quite possible that the notorious country 404 [a derogative use of the 404 computer ‘error’ code meant to suggest that Ukraine is not a real state] will not exist either.”[2] Medvedev notably did not explicitly say that Ukraine will cease to exist by 2034 — rather it was a tangential implication of his statements — but Russian news outlets, including Kremlin newswire TASS, immediately began publishing stories with headlines such as “Medvedev Admitted that Ukraine Will No Longer Exist in 2034” and, “Medvedev Predicted the Disappearance of Ukraine by 2034.”[3]
There are several implications to the way that Russian media is currently editorializing Medvedev’s statements. First and foremost, the explicit suggestion that Russia will be able to “destroy Ukraine” by 2034 is a promise to the Russian public that Russia will be able to win the war and achieve its objective to destroy Ukrainian statehood within a decade. This sets careful information conditions and societal expectations for a war that will last another decade, but one that will end with Russia's desired “victory.” This Russian narrative also directly and strongly undermines select Kremlin officials’ separate attempts to suggest that Russia is willing to “negotiate” for “peace” with Ukraine and further emphasizes that the Kremlin's only desired end-state for the war is the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state and people. Russian President Vladimir Putin has carefully articulated his goals for the war as such and has demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw from territory that Russian forces do not control as a precondition for any kind of “peace” negotiations, as ISW has previously assessed.[4] Neither Ukraine nor the West can expect to negotiate with Russia on Russia's terms if Russia's terms are premised on the eradication of Ukraine and its people in the next ten years.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-17-2024
Prices in Russia are rising because of bird flu, Summertime heat - anything but the Government’s policies of printing money like mad.
14APR2024 Severe outbreaks of bird flu in the United States and France are tightening global egg supplies and raising prices for the food staple as the war in Ukraine disrupts shipments to Europe and the Middle East.
Bird flu has wiped out more than 19 million egg-laying chickens on commercial U.S. farms this year in the worst outbreak since 2015, eliminating about 6% of the country's flock, according to Reuters calculations of federal and state government data. France, meanwhile, is suffering its worst outbreak ever in which about 8% of egg-laying hens have been culled. When poultry are infected, entire flocks are culled to contain the disease, which is often spread by wild birds.
https://www.reuters.com/world/bird-flu-ukraine-war-push-egg-prices-higher-worldwide-2022-04-14/
Extra problems in Russia:
12DEC2023
According to experts quoted by Russian media, the rise in egg prices is due to the increase in the cost of poultry feed and veterinary products, an indirect consequence of Western sanctions, which have led to a rise in the price of imported products. According to Rosstat, the price of chicken rose by 29.26% in November 2023 compared with the same month the previous year.
They tried Turkish import:
More than one-fifth of the eggs imported from Turkey were found to be infected with the highly contagious H5N1 avian influenza, as well as other dangerous ailments including salmonella and botulism, Russian authorities warned.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-egg-crisis-nato-turkey-export-backfires-h5n1-bird-flu-1860155
and H5N1 will probably increase the coming months.
European countries continue to display their commitment to Ukraine and unity in the face of Russian aggression. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated during the plenary session of the European Political Community summit in the United Kingdom (UK) on July 18 that Russian President Vladimir Putin has failed to divide Europe and thanked Ukraine's Western partners for easing restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russian border areas north of Kharkiv Oblast.[4] Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces have stopped the Russian offensive into northern Kharkiv Oblast and noted that Ukrainian strikes against military targets in Belgorod Oblast play a role in Ukraine's ability to repel this offensive. Zelensky called on Western states to further lift restrictions on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russia to help defend Ukrainian civilians from Russian air, drone, and missile strikes. Zelensky will have additional meetings with UK officials and defense company representatives on July 19 and announced an intergovernmental agreement to support Ukraine's defense industry on July 18.[5]
Ukraine also signed bilateral agreements with Czechia and Slovenia on July 18.[6] NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that NATO will open a command center in Germany to oversee and coordinate NATO's military assistance and training projects that support the Ukrainian Armed Forces and that the command center will be operational in September 2024.[7] Stoltenberg stated that 700 personnel will staff the command center and help coordinate NATO member states’ support for Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on July 18 that she hopes to launch a “European Defense Union” during her second term to help address cross-border threats within the European Union (EU), beginning with new “European Air Shield” and cyber defense programs.[8]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18-2024
The Central Bank will raise the key rate from 16 to 18% at the meeting on July 26, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast. Three experts allowed for the rate to rise to 19-20%. Such a decision by the regulator will support the ruble and make deposits even more attractive, but in the long term it will create serious risks of a contraction in the Russian economy, experts note.
The shortage of personnel in Russian companies is progressing. In the second quarter, the provision of employees fell to a historical minimum of -30.8 points, the Central Bank calculated. The shortage is felt most in enterprises producing investment and consumer goods. Companies lack fitters, warehouse workers, drivers and engineers
https://t.me/bankrollo/29492
KIA, WIA and emigration is the answer.
The Civil Guard in Spain arrests three people for participating in cyber attacks against countries that support Ukraine after the Russian invasion Those arrested belong to the pro-Russian hacktivist group ‘NoName057(16)’, known in Spain for its multiple attacks against institutional websites
This is the same group that attacked the websites of the Corts Valencianas , the Royal House and the Government of Asturias in May of this year, and which also put the regional parliaments of the Basque Country, Murcia, Navarre, Alicante and the Canary Islands in check.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noname057(16)
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban appears to be augmenting several Russian information operations amid continued efforts to present himself as a possible future mediator between Russia and Ukraine. Orban published a report on July 18 detailing his recent “peacekeeping mission” and visits to Ukraine, Russia, China, Turkey, and the United States.[5] Orban notably conceded that Russia, as a belligerent, is uninterested in a ceasefire or peace negotiations with Ukraine, an admission at odds with Kremlin officials’ efforts to pose Russia as amenable to peace negotiations. Kremlin officials have also undermined their efforts to sue for peace by repeatedly signaling an unwillingness to participate in negotiations based on anything less than complete Ukrainian capitulation.[6] Orban may have acknowledged Russia's resistance to negotiations in order to appear impartial as he tries to present himself as a possible mediator. Orban simultaneously attempted to place the onus for negotiations on Ukraine and questioned the longevity of US and European support for Ukraine, both of which are consistent with ongoing Russian information operations intended to discourage Western support for Ukraine and absolve Russia of responsibility for an invasion that Russia started.[7] Orban also called for the European Union (EU) to normalize diplomatic relations and reopen lines of communication with Russia. The Kremlin is attempting to use diplomatic meetings, including meetings with Hungary, to create the impression that Russia is normalizing relations with the West and claim that there is limited Western support for Russia, and Orban’s recommendation would support this Kremlin effort and undermine several years of EU policy to address Russian war crimes and aggression towards Ukraine.[8] Orban stated on July 19 that his “peace mission” will continue despite recent criticism from EU leadership and efforts to demonstrate the EU’s non-alignment with Orban’s positions on Ukraine and peace negotiations.[9]
The Kremlin is reportedly concerned about the long-term social and political implications of Russian veterans returning from the war in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported on July 19 that a source within the Kremlin and two sources who attended a July 2024 meeting stated that First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko stated during the meeting with Russian officials that Russian war veterans “adapt poorly” to civilian life after returning from Ukraine and that many convict recruits commit violent crimes after returning home.[14] One source who attended the meeting told Meduza that Kiriyenko made it clear that there will be “quite a lot” of veterans returning from the war in Ukraine and that increased crime committed by veterans could cause discontent, fear, or aggression towards veterans among Russian citizens.
Kiriyenko reportedly emphasized that the return of veterans from Ukraine will be very different than the period following the Soviet-Afghan war or the Second World War because the Soviet Union suffered fewer personnel losses in Afghanistan and because Soviet society was more widely mobilized and affected by the Second World War than the war in Ukraine. A source told Meduza that Kiriyenko characterized modern Russian society as only seeing the war in Ukraine “on TV” and being unprepared to “understand and accept” veterans. Meduza’s source stated that Russian officials are expressing concern that returning veterans will form criminal gangs if they become disillusioned after returning from the frontline, but Meduza’s source noted that Kiriyenko did not propose any specific solutions to address these issues. Kiriyenko claimed that the Kremlin's new “Time of Heroes” program could provide a “buffer” between civilians and returning servicemen, but Meduza noted that this program only accepts roughly 100 officers per term and cannot support Russia's wider veteran population.
Meduza’s sources suggested that Kremlin officials do not yet fully understand the scale of the risk that returning veterans could pose to Russia's internal stability, which supports ISW’s ongoing assessment that the Kremlin likely gave little consideration to the long-term social consequences of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine prior to February 2022.[15] The Kremlin already appears to be struggling to quell ongoing interethnic and interreligious conflict in Russia, and the June 2023 Wagner Group armed rebellion highlighted how discontent simmering among Russian military personnel can quickly become an immediate threat to regime stability.[16]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-19-2024
Extremely reliable sources have told us that Ramzan Kadyrov suffered a heart attack on Saturday night . Interlocutors in the circle of the head of Chechnya do not confirm this information, but do not deny it either. Unfortunately, we cannot say with 100% certainty what condition Kadyrov is in now. We are checking the information to see if he really had a heart attack.
Sources say that Kadyrov is currently in Grozny. At the same time, it is no big secret that he has had kidney problems for a long time. The fact that it was not Ramzan Kadyrov who was forced to comment on the story of the boorish behavior of a Chechen on the beach in Mariupol, but General Apti Alaudinov, speaks in favor of the rumors about the heart attack. If you remember, it was he who was called the next head of Chechnya when Kadyrov for one reason or another is unable to perform these functions. And in recent days, the head of Chechnya has really not been feeling very well.
By the way, Moscow has no final plan for what to do if Kadyrov leaves. Considering Ramzan Akhmatovich’s unstable health, this plan should be thought up sooner. It is only known that there are several videos with Kadyrov, recorded in advance. In general, the republic is very difficult, everyone understands this. The situation in Kadyrov’s entourage is also tense. Not everyone wants to see Alaudinov at the head of the republic. According to our information, Adam Delimkhanov is strongly against it, but so far at the level of non-public conversations.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 20, 2024
Russian authorities are likely trying to strengthen coercive measures aimed at impressing migrants facing deportation into military service. Kremlin newswire TASS reported on July 19 that the Russian State Duma will consider amendments that would allow Russian authorities to detain foreigners and stateless persons who are subject to expulsion from Russia, in “special institutions” for no more than 48 hours before their deportation.[15] The amendments reportedly propose that officials from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) or Federal Security Service (FSB) can request that a judge extend the period of detention from 48 hours to 90 days, however. Russian authorities are currently allowed to detain foreigners and stateless persons subject to deportation for a maximum of 90 days.[16] Russian authorities have increasingly been conducting raids against migrants and impressing migrants into signing military contracts by threatening migrants with deportation.[17] The amendments significantly shortening the period during which Russian authorities can detain people facing deportation are likely aimed in part at increasing pressure on migrants to join the military in lieu of deportation.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-20-2024
Belarus has been a key supporter of Moscow's war effort since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022 and it has agreed to store Russia tactical nuclear warheads on its territory. Recently Belarus became the 10th full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a Eurasian security bloc touted by China and Russia as an alternative to Western-led military groups.
The exercise, which is the first time Chinese troops have been to Belarus for training, started on Monday last week and ended on Friday, according to the Belarusian defence ministry.
NATO intervention
https://x.com/giantcat9/status/1796630582018867690
The purpose of such a transfer is unknown. Currently, 18 equipped aircraft are in service at the two airfields: 14 at “Olenya” and 4 at “Engels”.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1814711780628640139
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