Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Putin aide Patrushev says “population of Ukraine is overwhelmingly Russian.”
In 2001, ethnic Russians constituted 17% of Ukraine’s population. If this is the quality of advice Putin gets from his inner circle, no wonder he blundered Russia into costly war.
https://x.com/steven_pifer/status/1804553721835303016
The notorious Russian Col. Gen. Sergei Beseda is no longer the director of the 5th Department of the Russian Federal Security Service, known as ‘FSB.’ Formally, he retired because he turned 70, the age limit for active duty service. Informally, it’s because his department provided Putin with incorrect data on Ukraine’s defense capabilities and resistance potential, which let Putin think that the invasion would be an easy walk and his armies would topple the so-called ‘Kyiv regime’ in 3 days.
https://x.com/MrKovalenko/status/1804523811510927605
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2024
Russian air defenses will reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian F-16s if the US does not allow Ukrainian forces to use ATACMS to destroy Russian air defense systems in Russian territory. Ukrainian F-16 pilots will have to operate in a dangerous air space if US policy continues to provide a sanctuary in Russia that protects Russian forces from ATACMS. Russian air defenses will be able to cover up to 48 percent of Ukraine’s air space if Russia deploys S-400 air defense launchers within Russia outside of the range of HIMARS armed with GMLRS rockets. Such Russian air defense deployments would complicate Ukraine’s ability to use manned fixed-wing airpower closer to frontline areas or against areas from which Russian aircraft, drone, and missile threats emanate. ISW continues to assess that Ukrainian forces may be able to combine fixed-wing airpower in support of ground operations if the Ukrainian military receives a sufficient number of fighter jets if Western partners train enough skilled pilots, and if Ukraine succeeds in degrading Russian air defense capabilities.[12]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-22-2024
Russian blogger:
“There were signals that Prigozhin’s people were planning some nasty thing. Perhaps even a new campaign against Moscow and an assault on the Kremlin.”
With these words, our source in the FSB explained the detention of Ilya Gorbunov and Kirill Metelev, who were associated with Yevgeny Prigozhin. “There have been many signals that people who worked closely with Prigozhin are planning some nasty thing for the anniversary of his rebellion. There were even several warnings that there would be armed provocations, a new campaign against Moscow, an attempt at an armed assault on the Kremlin, and so on. Therefore, we detained the likely coordinators of this process,” the source said.
He believes that these are not the last detentions and arrests. And he called on Prigozhin’s associates, who for some reason come under suspicion, “not to resist and not to force harsh measures to be taken against them.” This information was confirmed to us by several other sources - in the FSB, the Russian Guard and the Kremlin. When asked whether they really believed in a new attempt at rebellion, most answered that “you can expect anything from Yevgeny Viktorovich's associates. Therefore, it is better to play it safe.”
At the same time, several interlocutors who were part of Prigozhin’s close circle called suspicions about a new rebellion and storming of the Kremlin “nonsense.” And they called on the authorities to “stop doing nonsense and not bring people to sin.” We hope that in this situation it will be possible to avoid serious conflicts and excesses. But, frankly speaking, we are somewhat shocked by the actions and statements of the security forces. Which happens to us quite rarely. By the way, we warned back in May that the FSB was taking Prigozhin’s associates under special control.
Rocket Science
As I have already pointed out, general audience, analysts, strategists & decision makers included holds unrealistic notions of how the global economy is organised. Now that is because they never see the back end of industrial civilisation
So let me show you some
Let's have a look at the Polet’s 80th anniversary video. Published in 2021, it is very much available on youtube. Short as it is, it gives some glimpse into the back end infrastructure standing behind the space rocket production.
See a relevant fragment:
Siemens 🇩🇪 CNC controller on what is very possibly a Dufleux 🇫🇷 milling machine.
What we see, is that the space rocket production relies on the computerised, software dependent machinery, 100% of our sample being recent European production.
Nothing Asian. Nothing American. And more interestingly, nothing old. All new stuff.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1802801229149462785.html
To gradually stop the Russian military machine - just stop updating the software
Tragedy in Sevastopol. We have three serious questions, including about “punishment” for air defense fighters.
After the tragic attack on Sevastopol, we simply have to ask difficult questions - both to the military leadership and to the authorities in general. We hate to say this, but the truth is important. Firstly, we mourn the deaths of civilians and children. This is a terrible tragedy, we need to avenge it and try not to let it happen again. But why doesn't anyone except us talk about the death of the military ? Unfortunately, the death toll at one of the Black Sea Fleet facilities that was hit by an enemy missile has increased to 12.
Secondly, it is clear that the Americans and the Kiev regime are to blame for the tragedy. But everyone knows that these are our enemies. But why did Maria Zakharova and other officials keep silent about the fact that literally two days before the tragedy, our Foreign Ministry received from Turkey a new demand to give Crimea under Ankara's control? “ Once again [https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6313#6313] they sent an ultimatum: they say, you better give Crimea under Turkish control. Otherwise something bad will happen. This is not the first time we have received such messages, but we did not pay attention. Now I think it's not in vain,” a source in the Foreign Ministry told us. Will we ask our Turkish partners questions about this?
Thirdly, we have heard rumors that they want to punish the air defense fighters who shot down missiles over the beach where people died. Some were almost arrested. Is it true? We think the Ministry of Defense should give a public answer. If such rumors are true, then this is simply madness. Guys are heroes, no matter what. Happy memory to all those who died. But no tragedy can be a reason to hide the truth and not answer uncomfortable questions.
In Dagestan, the head of the Sergokalinsky district and the secretary of the local branch of the United Russia party, Magomed Omarov, was detained , and his home was searched.
According to the state news agency TASS, Omarov’s two sons, as well as his nephew, took part in the attack on the synagogue and police that occurred on Sunday. Interfax, citing anonymous sources in law enforcement agencies, reports that the attackers were killed and have already been identified.
On June 23, in Derbent, unknown persons fired at a synagogue and an Orthodox church with automatic weapons. At the same time, unknown persons attacked a traffic police post in Makhachkala and then entered into a shootout with the police who arrived at the scene.
Sergokala is located approximately 80 km from Makhachkala and approximately the same distance from Derbent. In both cities, there are clashes between security forces and militants after attacks on Orthodox churches and synagogues. In Derbent, a temple and a synagogue were burned, and the rector of the church, 66-year-old Archpriest Nikolai Kotelnikov, was killed by terrorists. In Makhachkala, there was an attack on a traffic police post; there is a synagogue on the same street. There was also a shootout in the city near a church where about 20 parishioners were hiding.
https://www.rbc.ru/society/23/06/2024/66786dfc9a7947827f989a05
Russian blogger:
They were waiting for Prigozhin’s people to revolt, and the terrorists took advantage of this. What’s happening in Dagestan?
Much of what is happening in Dagestan cannot yet be discussed, and we deliberately remained silent for a long time. But a few things must still be said.
First, the attacks were almost certainly carried out by ISIS terrorists. We warned more than once that they were preparing provocations and terrorist attacks . The terrorists, unfortunately, decided not to limit themselves to the four cities we wrote about and attacked Dagestan. It is possible that there will be attacks in other republics of the Caucasus; you should be vigilant.
Secondly, how did it happen that the FSB missed the terrorist attack? “Everything cannot be prevented. Plus there are not enough people. Too much effort was devoted to preventing a possible rebellion by Prigozhin’s supporters ( we wrote about this - ed.). But danger came from where we didn’t expect it, it turns out,” admitted our source in the FSB.
Thirdly, there is a very unpleasant and disturbing detail in everything that is happening. Sources among security forces fear that terrorists will deliberately kill Orthodox priests. And they asked us to warn the clergy about the danger. We doing this. Please, take care of yourself!
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4277
No, it’s not ISIS, but maybe ISKP. The Russians say ISIS because ISIS is banned in Russia, but the ISKP is not yet banned.
Russian blogger:
There are already 27 dead in Dagestan. Why do terrorists kill us on the streets and in churches?
This post will be unpleasant for many to read. But we, as people who directly suffered from terror (who was punished for the death of our administrator’s son in Crocus City Hall?), are obliged to write it. Especially after the horror that began in Dagestan .
Terrorists shoot us on the streets and in other public places because:
No one was truly punished for the tragedy in Crocus. Bortnikov and Kolokoltsev are still at their posts. What do we want?
Many security forces are fighting patriots instead of real terrorists. ISIS feels at ease anywhere - even in the Caucasus, even in Moscow, even in the DPR or in the Crimea.
We still do not have a normal identification of potential terrorists. And the entire fight against illegal migrants did not produce any results.
Our Minister of Defense wants to introduce compulsory prayers at the front, and at the same time Orthodox priests are defenseless and become victims of terrorists.
In our country, the facts of terrorist attacks are hidden ( we wrote about such cases), because of which the criminals begin to feel their impunity.
The most important. According to our sources in the FSB, an increased terrorist threat in Russia is expected over the next 6-8 months. Moreover, the situation can “explode” anywhere. How many of you know about this? How many people are taking the necessary safety measures? The questions are rhetorical.
Also, according to interlocutors in the FSB and the Russian National Guard, separatist sentiments have seriously increased in the last few months, including in the Caucasus. Why were no measures taken other than arresting a few radicals? By the way, have you heard about this? And over the past month, seven separatists have been detained in Dagestan and Ingushetia . These facts were not made public due to the not very stable situation in the country and the reluctance to once again disturb society.
We really hope that measures will be taken after the events in Dagestan. In our opinion, it is worth starting with the resignations of those responsible who allowed this nightmare to happen.
We will inform you about the events in Dagestan; there is too much chaos and fakes there now. We know for sure that 27 people died , some of them were security forces. We continue to monitor the situation.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4278
There are many conspiracy theories about the causes of what happened in Dagestan, some pseudo-Islamic sites are also involved, as well as the spin doctors in the Kremlin.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2024
The Islamic State (IS) Northern Caucasus branch, Wilayat Kavkaz, likely conducted a complex and coordinated attack against churches, synagogues, and law enforcement structures in the Republic of Dagestan on June 23.[1] Dagestan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that unknown actors opened fire on a Russian Orthodox church and a synagogue in Derbent at approximately 1800 local time and then reported within the same hour that another group of unknown actors opened fire on a traffic police post in Makhachkala (120 kilometers north of Derbent).[2] There are also reports of a fire at a synagogue in Makhachkala, although Russian official sources have not confirmed a second synagogue attack.[3] Dagestan announced a counter-terrorism regime following the start of the attacks, and Russian law enforcement killed five of the assailants and wounded six.[4] Social media footage shows Russian law enforcement detaining two suspects on a public beach in Makhachkala after they seemingly fled the scene of the shooting.[5] Russian media reported that seven law enforcement officials, a priest, and a church guard died in the attacks and 25 more individuals have been injured.[6] The Russian National Anti-Terrorism Committee announced the end of the counterterrorism operation in Derbent after the deaths of two suspects but small arms fire exchanges continued in Makhachkala as of 2300 local time on June 23.[7] The Baza Telegram channel claimed that two of the Makhachkala attackers identified as Osman and Adil Omarov, both of whom Russian law enforcement killed, were the sons of Sergokalinsky district head Magomed Omarov.[8] Russian Telegram channels are circulating footage reportedly filmed by Osman Omarov of the Makhachkala synagogue attack.[9] Baza reported that Russian law enforcement has also detained Magomed Omarov and are searching his home. Russian news agency Interfax claimed that Omarov’s nephew also took part in the attack and Russian law enforcement killed him.[10]
The Russian branch of IS-K’s Al-Azaim Media posted a statement on June 23 following the attack praising “their brothers from the Caucasus” for demonstrating what they were capable of.[11] Al-Azaim did not claim credit for the attack itself, notably, and the reference to the Caucasus strongly suggests that Wilayat Kavkaz is responsible for the attack. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure specifically warned that Wilayat Kavkaz became more active following the March 22 IS-K Crocus City Hall attack and has escalated recruitment appeals in the Northern Caucasus since April 2024.[12] Russian authorities have attempted a lackluster counterterrorism operation in the North Caucasus since March 2024 in order to combat growing IS and Wilayat Kavkaz influence but have largely focused their post-Crocus Hall response on baselessly blaming Ukraine and NATO for the attack.[13] Some Russian officials are already baselessly claiming that Ukraine and NATO are involved in the June 23 attack, emphasizing that Russia’s current counterterrorism approach is likely to remain tied up in rhetorical posturing against Ukraine and the West as opposed to identifying and neutralizing IS threats within Russia itself.[14] Russia’s increasingly tense relationship with its Muslim minority population, especially in the Caucasus, will likely continue to provide Wilayat Kazkaz and other extremist groups with a valuable recruitment base.[15]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2024
Russian blogger:
They used rumors about mobilization and SVO [the war in Ukraine]. We found out who carried out the shooting in Dagestan.
A series of terrorist attacks in Dagestan were carried out by militants of the ISIS organization banned in Russia. To recruit future terrorists, they used bribery and rumors they spread related to the SVO.
This information was provided to us by three sources in the FSB.
“The organizers of the terrorist attack, whom we are now looking for, distributed weapons and 500 thousand rubles to the terrorists. At the same time, they said that it was necessary to destabilize the situation in the republic. Otherwise, they will soon announce mobilization here and will en masse take everyone to participate in the SVO,” said one of them. In particular, the sons of the head of the Sergokalinsky region of Dagestan, Magomed Omarov, were recruited in this way .
According to another interlocutor, 38 people became victims of street fighting in Dagestan. These data will still be updated.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4279
A “religious front” was opened in Russia. Three conclusions from the events in Dagestan
We talked with sources in the FSB, the Russian Guard and the AP to understand what awaits Russia after the terrible events in Dagestan.
Firstly, it is obvious that terrorists have opened a real religious front in our country. “They want people not to go to churches, including on holidays, so that they hate Muslims, so that there is mutual distrust. The task is clear and very dangerous,” said one of our interlocutors. In his opinion, one must “refrain from extremes.” But be vigilant and report suspicious people to the competent authorities. This is especially true for parishioners of Orthodox churches. If we are vigilant, there will be no new murders of priests.
Secondly, unfortunately, we can state our failure in the fight against terrorism. We wrote in detail about the reasons here . We are waiting for decisions personally from the president. The banned organization ISIS, Wahhabis, and other radical movements have raised their heads in the Caucasus, and this is very dangerous.
Thirdly, it is obvious that terrorists will continue to play up the SVO theme. “There is information that they want to use veterans who have not found themselves in peaceful life in terrorist attacks. And, on the other hand, those who are afraid that they will be taken to war ( as happened in Dagestan - ed.). This is a challenge for us, we are now thinking about how to deal with it,” noted our source in the FSB.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4280
We wrote [ https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/reply?c=6628] : one of the reasons that the terrorist attacks in Dagestan could not be prevented was that many FSB employees were busy preventing “possible provocations and riots” on the part of Evgeniy’s associates Prigozhin. This insight, unfortunately, was confirmed.
“Over the past week, several of our valuable and experienced employees have been transferred to Moscow and St. Petersburg. Including from the Caucasus. As a result, this is how everything turned out,” a source in the FSB told us. He was shocked by this decision and disclosed this information to us so that this would not happen again.
At the same time, Prigozhin’s associates with whom we spoke said that they were not planning any rebellion.
“ I recently told you [https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6608#6608 ] that it is not Yevgeny Viktorovich that our security forces and authorities need to fear. And then he called them fools. You were still arguing with this. They all turned out to be fools. It's a pity that people died as a result,” our interlocutor from Prigozhin’s close circle said about this.
Putin complained Russia was on its own in the war.
Was his visit to North Korea not as successful as he wanted it to be, after all?
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1804871870962860292
Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry called the US its strategic partner following Putin’s visit
After Putin visited Vietnam, a US Assistant Secretary of State arrived the next day and emphasized that relations with Vietnam “have never been stronger”. In response, Vietnamese Foreign Minister called the US a strategic partner, emphasizing the desire to cooperate in economy, security, trade, and all areas.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1804905649177833816
LOL!
Who will calm the Caucasus?
Many were skeptical about the recent activity of Nikolai Patrushev . To his sensational article [ https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/reply?c=6618 ] and in general to the fact that he is again showing public activity. But in vain.
We would like to draw your attention to the fact that in the last years of Nikolai Platonovich’s tenure as Secretary of the Security Council, there was no such thing as in Dagestan in the Caucasus. It couldn’t be. Patrushev dealt with this issue very systematically, knew deeply and took into account all its specifics. Yes, there was terrorist activity in the region, but remember how these problems were solved (we wrote about this back in March [ https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6046#6046 ]). You can see for yourself what is happening under Sergei Shoigu in the post held by Patrushev.
Now it is what it is. In light of this, we can express the cautious hope that the Caucasus issue will soon be taken up again by a real specialist. What position should Nikolai Platonovich take for this in order to calm the complex region? We will remain silent for now, but we roughly understand.
By the way, if at one time Patrushev had been given the entire sphere of combating terrorism in Russia, perhaps there would not have been a tragedy in Crocus City Hall. But that’s a thing of the past. It is important that the events in Dagestan awaken our elites. And so that the problem of destabilization of the entire Caucasus, which is happening right now, is promptly resolved.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4283
Kremlin officials absurdly attempted to link the June 23 Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea and the likely Islamic State (IS) affiliate Wilayat Kavkaz terrorist attack in the Republic of Dagestan. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on June 24 that Russian President Vladimir Putin sympathizes with those who lost loved ones from both the Ukrainian missile strike on Sevastopol and the terrorist attack in Dagestan.[10] Peskov also stated that the Russian investigative bodies will determine whether the strike on Crimea and the terrorist attack in Dagestan were one series of incidents or separate incidents.[11] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev and Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Head Leonid Slutsky labeled both events as “terrorist attacks.”[12] Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin claimed that it is possible that the “customers” (or entities that ordered these attacks) of both the Crimea strikes and the Dagestan terrorist attack “will be the same.”[13] Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 24 that pro-Kremlin bots left over 1,400 comments on Russian social media platform VKontakte claiming that the US and Ukraine organized the terrorist attack in Dagestan — echoing the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) claim that the US was responsible for the Ukrainian strike on occupied Sevastopol.[14]
The Kremlin information operation linking these two events is nonsensical if only because the civilian casualties in Crimea resulted from Russia's interception of an incoming ATACMS missile rather than a deliberate Ukrainian targeting decision. The Russian MoD acknowledged that a Russian air defense interceptor caused the Ukrainian missile to deviate from its flight path and detonate in Sevastopol.[15] An unspecified US official also told Reuters in a June 24 article that Russian forces were able to intercept the ATACMS missile targeting a Russian missile launcher causing the ATACMS missile to explode and rain down shrapnel on the Sevastopol beach.[16] Russian officials have also offered no evidence for their claims of Ukrainian or American involvement in the Dagestan terrorist attack.
The Kremlin is attempting to maintain a veneer of stability and normalcy in response to the Dagestan terror attack. Peskov stated that Putin does not plan to make a special address concerning the strikes in Sevastopol or the attack in Dagestan — in contrast to Putin's March 25 lengthy speech following the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow.[17] Peskov responded to a journalist asking if the Kremlin fears the return of the situation of the early 2000s (presumably referencing a series of terrorist attacks in Russia, including the 2002 Nord-Ost siege, 2004 Moscow Metro bombing, and 2004 Beslan school siege), stating that the Kremlin does not fear a return to this situation as Russia is different now and Russian society is “absolutely consolidated” in its lack of support for terrorist attacks in Dagestan or Russia in general.[18] Dagestan Head Sergei Melikov stated that the terrorist attack against Dagestan’s “brotherhood, multinational unity, and confessional indivisibility” is an attempt to divide Dagestan but “this [division] will not happen.”[19] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that the terrorists in Dagestan were attempting to create interreligious discord but that Russia will continue its fight against terrorism.[20] Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov similarly claimed that the attack aimed to cause interreligious conflict but that other Russian regions, such as Chechnya, have already proven that Russia can effectively resist such conflicts.[21] The Kremlin has repeatedly promoted the idea that Russia is a harmonious multinational and multireligious state, despite increasing xenophobic rhetoric from Russia's vocal ultranationalist community and growing societal tensions.[22] This Kremlin facade of normalcy and stability also ignores the October 2023 antisemitic riots in Dagestan (including in Makhachkala, one of the locations of the June 23 attack), the March 2024 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in Moscow, and the increasingly frequent counterterrorism operations in the North Caucasus.[23]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2024
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