Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Interesting to see the 2 big ferries at the Kerch strait have been taken out. A bit of background on the Kerch Bridge story for recent arrivals to Ukraine’s war story.
After Putin took Crimea in 2014, Putin immediately began work on this long bridge to have 2 rail lines, and 4 lanes of traffic. It was opened around 2018, and is considered Putin’s greatest infrastructure achievement of his reign. Over a year ago a truck bomb destroyed a significant section of highway leaving only one lane for motor traffic. The explosion also set fire to an oil train on the railroad directly above the ruined highway. It burned for a number of hours, severely damaging one rail line, and weakening the other line. For a long time that one line has only been using light weight passenger cars.
While two lanes of motor traffic became useable relatively quickly, it took months to restore the piece of bridge needed for the other 2 lanes. Heavy traffic on the rails has continued to be a problem, thus requiring use of the large ferries to transport heavy military equipment. These ferries could carry around 600 to 800 passenger vehicles. Since the northern approaches to Crimea are subject to threat from the Ukraine military, the Bridge and ferries have been important for continuing Putin’s war effort Meanwhile Ukraine has continued to attack the major military ship installation of Sevastopol, and Crimean air bases used by Russia.
After 2014 influential and wealthy Russians made major moves on the best beach and resort area real estate. Large numbers of Russian pensioners and elderly also moved to the milder climate of Crimea. Many in both these groups have now chosen to move out of Crimea. Crimea has always been short of water for this increased population, and Russia’s complete destruction of the major dam creating the lake which fed the water supply line to Crimea has added to this shortage. Some Ukraine supporters at FR have suggested Ukraine should destroy the Kerch Bridge. I have stated my opinion that Ukraine wants to keep the bridge in a weakened condition so that Russian civilians can leave easily and permanently. I did wonder why Ukraine did not damage the ferries to further hurt the Russian military supply effort. Now it appears this has happened. It will make it harder for Russia to support their war efforts on the southeast border of Ukraine, which may explain their intense effort to take the major city Karkiv. I hope Ukraine will soon be able to make major advances in reclaiming Crimea, and Russians will continue to use the bridge to permanently return to mother Russia.
Despite everything that is happening, the Russians are promoting Crimea as a holiday destination (I’m sure it’s part of the five-year plan and nobody has changed it...) :
Summer, Crimea: the best vacation ideas
Enjoy sea bathing and vibrant beach activities, indulge in lavender expanses of scent, treat yourself to Crimean delicacies and wines, stroll along new routes in nature reserves and updated locations of resort towns. This is not all that you can pamper yourself with in the summer in Crimea. The best ideas for relaxation are in our material.
https://travelcrimea.com/chem-zanyatsya/20240603/3275698.html
There is also text in English: https://en.travelcrimea.com/
Sorry wrong link, it should be https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4205
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 7, 2024
Putin heavily focused on proposals to solve Russia’s labor shortage issues during his speech at SPIEF on June 7. Putin outlined a 10-point plan to grow the Russian economy and acknowledged that Russia is suffering from demographic challenges and labor shortages.[25] Putin called on the Russian government to enact multiple reforms to increase the labor supply and productivity, such as improving education and training, automating and digitalizing Russian industry, increasing the use of artificial intelligence (AI), and increasing spending on research and development. Putin highlighted the necessity of migrant labor to increase Russia’s economic growth but stated that Russia has not yet developed a “meaningful” migration policy. Putin specified that Russia only needs skilled and educated migrant laborers with a knowledge of Russian language and culture and who will “not create any problems for local citizens in the workplace and in life.” Putin ended his SPIEF appearance by stating that Russia “will treat the culture and traditions of [non-ethnically Russian] peoples of the Russian Federation” with respect as “unity is [Russia’s] strength.” Putin has touted Russia as a unified multiethnic and multinational state, but his June 7 statements demonstrate the differing policies and perceptions towards the indigenous, federally recognized peoples of Russia and migrants.[26] Putin’s migration policy proposals demonstrate how the Kremlin continues to struggle to balance Russia’s need for migrants to compensate for labor shortages and wide-scale anti-migrant sentiments in Russia, particularly as the Kremlin tries to further mobilize the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-7-2024
Longtime Russian Central Bank Head Elvira Nabiullina is reportedly a balancing force among Russian President Vladimir Putin's economic advisors despite pressure for Russian officials to unequivocally support the long-term war effort in Ukraine. Bloomberg reported on June 7 that former Russian Service for Financial Markets Head and former Central Bank Deputy Head Oleg Vyugin stated that Nabiullina has known Putin for years and has the “exclusive right” to tell Putin “what he doesn't like” because Putin views her as straightforward and uninfluenced by corruption.[35] Bloomberg reported that Nabiullina balances against Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who advocates for Russia to shape its budget to ensure a victorious Russian war effort, and former economic aid and new Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff Maxim Oreshkin, who portrays the Russian war as a global conflict against the West. Bloomberg cited a senior government official who stated that Nabiullina is raising concerns about the impacts of Russian labor shortages caused by the war and a “swollen” budget amid high defense spending. A leaked video published on March 2, 2022, showed Nabiullina speaking about her hyperfocus on the Russian economy after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and concern over greater domestic sacrifices.[36] Bloomberg reported that Putin has begun overruling Nabiullina in some cases but assessed that Putin is unlikely to remove her for the foreseeable future.[37] Bloomberg cited anonymous sources as saying that Putin wants to avoid dismissing personnel in a way that could be viewed as destabilizing or as being done under pressure.
Nabiullina is especially notable because she has previously mitigated the economic fallout of Putin's geopolitical ambitions and reportedly tried to resign from her position in May 2022 in opposition to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[38] The Economist reported on May 31 that Nabiullina ensured the stability of the ruble after Putin's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and that in 2022 she feared that her resignation would lead to the arrests of her deputies at the Central Bank.[39] The Economist reported that Nabiullina has largely favored regulatory market reforms but that she learned early in her career in the late 1990s and early 2000s that the Russian economy can only take so much change. The Economist noted that she has navigated accordingly as she gained power under Putin, implementing some regulatory changes within the existing Russian economic system, and has shifted her focus to minimize the economic impact of the war in Ukraine on the Russian public since February 2022. Nabiullina’s reported ability to speak candidly to Putin about the impact of the war on the Russian economy is especially significant given Putin's recent efforts to oust any officials who have lost Putin's favor or otherwise perceived as disloyal to Putin and his war effort.[40] Putin has recently been preoccupied with assuaging domestic concerns about Russia's economy and has attempted to portray Russia's economic issues positively, and he may be more willing to tolerate Nabiullina’s candor or even appreciate her honesty given her track record for stability.[41]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-8-2024
The curious situation with Nabiullina
It's no secret that Elvira Nabiullina played a key role in maintaining control over the Russian economy during the war and a new round of sanctions. The conditions in which the Central Bank and the entire economic bloc of the government find themselves are difficult to describe in one word. This has never happened in modern history. Yes, there was a default in the late 90s, but the challenges were different.
At the same time, serious passions have now erupted around the head of the Central Bank. Firstly, many in the elite are openly wary of Nabiullina because of her direct contact with the president. She may not be able to find words if the situation is really bad. For many who try to smooth things over, this makes them look bad.
Secondly , Nabiullina herself has repeatedly expressed a desire to resign. As an experienced specialist, she understands that maintaining system stability is becoming increasingly difficult. She is offended when, in the press or in open discussions, prominent figures disparage the work of the Central Bank, pointing to high inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate.
“She is making titanic efforts to ensure that the entire financial system survives. And, believe me, there are risks. When the president says that our economy is growing by leaps and bounds, one may get the impression that we do not live in the same country,” said a source at the Central Bank close to to Nabiullina. He notes that there is economic growth, but largely due to the military industry.
At the same time, several independent interlocutors drew attention to the remark of the former advisor on Russia at the US National Security Council, Fiona Hill. She suggested that Nabiullina could be one of those with whom the West will deal after the end of the war. This thesis, according to the interlocutors, was brought up by Nabiullina’s enemies who are in Russia.
“It's an obvious setup,” said the interlocutor, who is in close contact with Nabiullina, briefly and undiplomatically. Over the past week, several articles have been published in the West dedicated to the head of the Russian Central Bank. Sources do not believe in an accident, therefore they are convinced that someone is trying to put Nabiullina in a bad light in front of the president.
Thanks.
Crocus 2.0? The FSB is talking about the threat of a serious terrorist attack in Russia.
The FSB has received information about the preparation of a large-scale terrorist attack on the territory of our country. At this point, there is little information, but our friends from the authorities decided to share it because they remember what happened in Crocus City Hall. Then, let us remind you that the son of one of the admins of our channel died as a result of a terrorist attack. The interlocutors clarify that a terrorist attack could occur at any public event or in crowded places. Additional security measures are currently being worked out. The FSB says that the threat has a clear ethnic-religious context, but will not talk about this publicly. The nearest dangerous date, according to the interlocutors, is June 12 - Russia Day.
We ask you to be careful and avoid crowds if possible.
Russia has added extra manpower for its offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, forcing “thousands of migrants and foreign students” to fight alongside its troops in its war against Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on June 9, citing unnamed European officials. According to the Bloomberg report, Russian officials have been threatening African students and young workers not to extend their visas unless “they agree to join the military.” Such a tactic was first deployed by the Russian Wagner mercenary group, Bloomberg reported.
While Russia has also been enlisting convicts, some Africans on work visas “have been detained and forced to decide between deportation or fighting,” Bloomberg cited an anonymous European official. “Some of those people had been able to bribe officials to stay in the country and still avoid military service,” the report reads.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2024
The Kremlin’s concerted effort to remove and arrest senior Russian defense officials may be extending to civilian regional administration officials. Russian authorities arrested Tyumen Oblast Deputy Governor Vyacheslav Vakhrin on June 9, Republic of Karelia Legislative Assembly Head of the Committee on Budget and Taxes Vitaly Krasulin on May 29, Oryol Oblast Gubernatorial Advisor Sergei Lezhnev on May 27, and Krasnodar Krai Deputy Governor Sergei Vlasov on May 24 for various fraud and bribery charges.[16] Russian authorities have detained at least five senior Russian MoD officials and former military commanders since late April 2024, and The Moscow Times reported on May 24 that these are the first of dozens or hundreds of anticipated arrests.[17] An unnamed acting Russian government official told The Moscow Times that the arrests could spiral into the largest effort to remove Russian military officials in modern Russian history.[18] Russian authorities may intend to use the guise of anti-corruption campaigns to conduct a large-scale removal of Russian defense officials and could easily replicate such efforts against civilian officials in Russian federal subjects.[19] Kaliningrad Oblast deputies proposed on June 9 to dismiss any Kaliningrad Oblast governors recognized as foreign agents, possibly another mechanism or informational justification that Russian authorities may try to use to remove officials from regional administrations.[20] The removal and arrest of regional officials comes amid an apparent effort by Russian President Vladimir Putin to remove from power the political and military figures that lost his trust in 2022 and 2023.[21] Putin may also seek to disempower regional officials who have lost his trust and rebalance which regional officials have his favor. Putin notably recently platformed St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), suggesting that Beglov may currently have Putin’s favor despite his past controversies.[22]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2024
Belousov spoke out against Gerasimov and once again said when the SVO [war in Ulraine] will end.
The Minister of Defense criticized the Chief of the General Staff. Let us recall that Valery Gerasimov recently refuted Andrei Belousov’s forecast that the SVO could last another 5-10 years. And he said that the fighting would end no later than in 3-5 years. Andrei Removich did not like these words. “Oh, these old generals, they don't see the problem comprehensively. And then they promise quick victories, and disaster happens. We are still far from victory, everyone needs to remember this,” a source close to him in the Ministry of Defense quoted Belousov as saying.
The minister repeated his forecast : the SVO, in his opinion, will last 5-10 years , and “the second figure is more realistic.” We honestly don't know how long the SVO will last. We understand that, most likely, there is quite a long road ahead. And against this background, the conflict in the military leadership, which is deepening, causes us concern.
https://x.com/Karmabash/status/1799897537148809250
BUT, Russian blogger:
Kadyrov was accused of the death of more than 20 of our military in the Kursk region.
Ramzan Kadyrov, by announcing the liberation of the village of Ryzhevka on the border with the Kursk region, endangered our military. There are losses. Sources in the General Staff told us about this. “This is not the first time we have entered Ryzhevka; our scouts are there all the time. But this idiot decided to brag about something unknown. As a result, the enemy captured a group of military personnel near the border in the Kursk region. We have 21 dead ,” one of them said.
According to another, the military is going to appeal personally to Vladimir Putin with a call to punish Kadyrov for the death of soldiers and “in general for the lawlessness that his Chechens are doing without bringing any benefit at the front.”
Those around Ramzan Akhmatovich responded to these claims with the words: “They don't know how to fight themselves, that's why they are jealous. Shaitans.”
A number of large businessmen do not hide their dissatisfaction with the situation with the seized Russian assets in the West. As is known, the presidents of the United States and France agreed to the possibility of transferring proceeds from seized assets to Ukraine. Now Macron and Biden will talk about this at the upcoming G7 summit in Italy, trying to convince Germany of this first of all. To make such a decision, the consent of all EU countries is required, since most of the assets are located in Europe. Here, the contraversive behavior of Hungarian Prime Minister Orban plays into our hands. Budapest is strongly advocating for an end to the transfer of arms and finance to Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Russian business circles are not delighted with this turn of events. “Now they are transferring profits over assets. And then the assets themselves will be taken away,” complains a large businessman who is among the TOP 50 rich people in our country.
Some bolder people address their dissatisfaction not only with the West, but also with our authorities. “They promised to protect. They didn't protect. So what now?” - asks another large businessman. Billionaires do not hide the fact that they encountered difficulties in doing business after the start of the CBO, and, alas, not everyone managed to adapt. This leads to big losses.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4218
Hit them where it hurts most - in the wallet.
Officials from Russia, Iran, and the People's Republic of China (PRC) held bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Nizhny Novgorod on June 10. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke at the BRICS meeting and highlighted the organization's recent expansion.[20] Lavrov reiterated standard Kremlin narratives about how the Western rules-based order is detrimental to other states and about the supposed merits of the creation of a multipolar world. Lavrov claimed that the “winds of change” are driving BRICS forward. Lavrov met with officials from Brazil, South Africa, Ethiopia, Laos, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt during the BRICS event as well.[21]
Lavrov met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting on June 10. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Chinese MFA both stated that Lavrov and Wang discussed diplomatic coordination in international organizations such as the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).[22] The Chinese MFA stated that developing Russo-Chinese relations are a “strategic choice” by both parties and that Lavrov and Wang “exchanged views” on the war in Ukrainian war.”[23] The Russian MFA labeled the Russo-Chinese relationship as a “strategic partnership” and stated that Lavrov thanked Wang for the PRC's “balanced” line on the war in Ukraine and for not sending a representative to the June 15-16 Ukrainian peace summit in Switzerland.[24] The Russian MFA also stated that Lavrov and Wang discussed stability in the Asia-Pacific region, where they accused the US of allegedly creating anti-Russian and anti-Chinese military-political structures.[25] Lavrov also met with acting Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani on June 10 and discussed efforts to form a Russo-Iranian “strategic partnership” and create a new comprehensive intergovernmental agreement.[26] Kremlin newswire TASS reported that Kani stated that Iran “sees enormous potential for expanding and strengthening [Russo-Iranian] interaction.”[27] Kani and Wang also met on June 10 and reportedly discussed increasing cooperation.[28] Russian outlet Vedomosti reported on June 9 that Russian Ambassador to North Korea Alexander Matsegora stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit North Korea, and an unspecified diplomatic source reportedly stated that the visit will occur in the coming weeks after Putin visits Vietnam.[29] ISW continues to assess that Russia, the PRC, Iran, North Korea, and Belarus are deepening their multilateral partnerships in order to confront the West.[30]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-10-2024
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