Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia’s need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.[1] Putin thanked Russian citizens, the residents of Russia’s “historical lands,” participants in the “special military operation,” and those who have “defended the right to be together with the motherland,” and called on Russia to unite for victory. Putin did not specify what this Russian victory entails and only vaguely referenced Russia’s “serious challenges.” Putin has long justified his effort to destroy Ukrainian statehood by claiming that Russia is fighting for “historic lands” in Ukraine and coming to the aid of “compatriots abroad” who desire to reunite with Russia.[2]
Putin likely intended to acknowledge the war without setting heightened expectations for Russian prospects in Ukraine with his vague call for victory. Putin more heavily suggested that Russia “needs” strong autocratic rule, claiming that the Russia state and socio-political system must be strong and must resist any challenges and threats in order to ensure the development, unity, and independence of Russia. Putin added that his ability to fulfill his duties as president depends on Russian unity and cohesion and warned Russians to remember historical lessons “about the tragic price of internal turmoil and upheaval.” Putin has routinely invoked historical parallels to justify his own increasingly autocratic rule by suggesting that autocracy is a Russian tradition and has regularly argued that without unchallenged autocracy Russia would lose its sovereignty.[3] Putin notably alluded in October 2022 to the Pugachev Rebellion that challenged Catherine the Great’s authority in the mid-1770s to warn deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin about challenging the Kremlin, a warning that did not prevent Prigozhin from launching his own failed rebellion in June 2023.[4] Putin had observed in 2022 that the Pugachev Rebellion occurred because the “weakening of the central power” caused someone to claim that he was the tsar. Putin’s inauguration speech was otherwise filled with tired, boilerplate rhetoric and vague calls for national triumph, and his focus on internal stability indicates that Putin likely sought to emphasize to the Russian public that his fifth term as president will continue to be increasingly autocratic.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2024
At Putin's inauguration they discussed the “resurrected” Prigozhin.
Very strange conversations took place in the Kremlin Palace during the inauguration of Vladimir Putin. Several invited VIPs discussed Yevgeny Prigozhin. Allegedly, after his official death, he was seen in Africa.
Let's say right away: such conversations hardly make sense. There is not a single confirmation that Prigozhin could have survived. Although, of course, conspiracy theories abounded immediately after the plane crash. It is curious that they did not hesitate to discuss such a controversial person even at the presidential inauguration. Sources explained this by the fact that Prigozhin, on many points, satisfied the demand of both the elites and the population for a strong hand. But, fortunately or unfortunately, Prigozhin is dead. And his empire of PMC “Wagner” was transformed and received new owners.
Recent satellite imagery of depleted Russian military vehicle and weapon storage facilities further indicates that Russia is currently sustaining its war effort largely by pulling from storage rather than by manufacturing new vehicles and certain weapons at scale. Newsweek reported on May 8 that a social media source tracking Russian military depots stated that satellite imagery indicates that Russia's vehicle stores have significantly decreased from pre-war levels by nearly 32 percent from 15,152 in 2021 to 10,389 as of May 2024.[11] The military depot tracker noted that Russia has pulled most from its stores of MT-LB multipurpose armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), which are down from 2,527 prewar to 922 remaining; BMD airborne amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), which are down from 637 prewar to 244 remaining; and BTR-50 armored personnel carriers (APCs), down from 125 prewar to 52 remaining. The military depot tracker noted that Russia no longer has newer model BTR-60s, 70s, and 80s in storage and that only 2,605 remain — likely referring to vehicles currently fielded — from its prewar stocks of 3,313. The military depot tracker noted that Russia is currently fielding 1,000–2,000 of its remaining MT-LBs in Ukraine. Another open-source account on X (formerly Twitter) cited satellite imagery dated May 27, 2020 and March 26, 2024 and concluded that Russia has pulled roughly 60 percent of its artillery systems at an unspecified towed artillery storage base, reportedly one of Russia's largest.[12] The source reported that about half of the remaining artillery systems at this base are likely unusable due to degradation while in storage and because many of the remaining systems are Second World War era artillery systems incompatible with modern ammunition.[13]
Russia is relying on vast Soviet-era stores of vehicles and other equipment to sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian DIB could support, nor will Russia be able to mobilize its DIB to replenish these stores for many years. The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank reported on February 12 that Russia is likely able to sustain its current rate of vehicle losses (over 3,000 armored fighting vehicles annually) for at least two or three years by mainly reactivating vehicles from storage.[14] The IISS also estimated that Russia has lost over 3,000 armored fighting vehicles in 2023 and close to 8,000 armored fighting vehicles since February 2022, and that Russia likely reactivated at least 1,180 main battle tanks and about 2,470 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers pulled from storage in 2023.[15] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on February 4 that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) can produce 250–300 new and modernized tanks per year and repair an additional 250–300 tanks per year.[16] Russia will likely struggle to adequately supply its units with materiel in the long term without transferring the Russian economy to a wartime footing — a move that Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to avoid thus far.[17]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-8-2024
The deputy head of the United Russia faction in the State Duma, Andrei Isaev, called for the opinion of the dead to be taken into account in the elections. According to Isaev, Putin said during the inauguration that the dead of past generations “have the right to vote, and this voice is the traditions that have developed and which we are obliged to honor.”
It is by taking into account the votes of the dead that Russian democracy, according to Isaev, differs from Western ones, where only the votes of living people are counted. Let us note that Isaev is not the first to make a proposal to take into account the votes of the dead in elections. Thus, in 2016, the director of the Institute of Economic Strategies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Ageev, as Fontanka wrote, “suggested thinking about the possibility of granting voting rights to 27 million Soviet citizens who died during the Second World War.”
This, according to Ageev, could be realized by providing additional ballots for the elections to their families, and thus expanding the number of voters by several more dead generations.
Russian border guards are withdrawing from much of Armenia as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to face domestic backlash for decisions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on May 9 that Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed during a meeting on May 8 to stop Russian border guard operations in a number of Armenian regions due to “changed conditions,” likely referring to Armenia's loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.[33] Peskov noted that Russian border guards will remain stationed on the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian international borders.[34] Meanwhile, thousands of protestors have completed a multi-day march to Yerevan, Armenia, where they are currently protesting in Yerevan's Republic Square against Pashinyan’s decision to transfer control over four border villages in Tavush Province to Azerbaijan in the wake of Armenia's loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.[35] Armenian Apostolic Church Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, who serves as the Primate of the Tavush Diocese, has emerged as a leader of these protests and issued a public call on May 9 for Pashinyan to either resign within the hour or face a vote of no confidence in the parliament.[36] Galstanyan met with Armenian opposition parliamentarians after the deadline elapsed to discuss initiating a vote of no confidence to oust Pashinyan.[37] Armenia's constitution stipulates that at least a third of parliamentarians or the president must support a draft resolution of no confidence to bring a vote, and at least half of parliamentarians must then vote in favor of the final no confidence resolution.[38] The constitution also stipulates that the final vote of no confidence occur between 48 and 72 hours of the draft's initial submission. Pashinyan’s ruling Civil Contract party holds roughly 54 percent of the seats in Armenian parliament, so it is unlikely that a vote of no confidence would oust Pashinyan without defectors from the Civil Contract party voting for the opposition.[39]
The Kremlin may seek to capitalize on opposition outrage in Armenia to punish Pashinyan for increasingly pulling away from Russia. Russian state media has closely followed the protests and is widely amplifying Galstanyan's calls for Pashinyan’s resignation or a vote of no confidence.[40] A prominent, Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger has tracked the protest march from Kirash, Tavush Province to Yerevan and expressed support for the protestors.[41] This milblogger and other Russian officials and pro-Kremlin voices have frequently spread information operations accusing Pashinyan of “weakness” and incompetence for ceding territory to Azerbaijan after Russia failed to prevent the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.[42] Pro-Kremlin actors may amplify reports of discontent or perpetuate ongoing Kremlin information operations in the wake of Armenian opposition protests to further pressure Pashinyan into mending relations with Russia.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-9-2024
What Putin, Gerasimov and Shoigu persuaded Lukashenko to do
On the eve of Victory Day, Vladimir Putin received Alexander Lukashenko. The fact of the meeting itself was not hidden; both leaders announced it the next day, emphasizing that the conversation dragged on until late at night. At some point, the leaders of the states were joined by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
Initially, the meeting was in a tete-a-tete format. Lukashenko and Putin discussed relations between the countries and some aspects of economic interaction. Very soon the conversation turned to military topics. And Lukashenko, quite unexpectedly, said: “How can I help, Vladimir Vladimirovich?” The President did not expect such a move, so he said that we were “coping with it for now.” At the same time, Vladimir Vladimirovich showed Alexander Grigorievich a map of military operations and told several stories about the heroic battles of the Russian army.
Lyrics aside, Putin was extremely respectful during this meeting. Even too much. Sources attribute this to the fact that the Kremlin now urgently needs Belarus, primarily to distract the attention of the West. There are two directions that were already discussed in the presence of Shoigu and Gerasimov. Firstly, exercises with nuclear weapons carriers. Secondly, the threat of an offensive from NATO countries and the need to ensure control over the Suwalki corridor to Kaliningrad.
Shoigu insisted that the security of Kaliningrad in the face of increased escalation from the West must be ensured. The situation in the Baltic Sea has become difficult for the Russian fleet, since NATO's military presence has grown significantly after Finland and Sweden joined the Alliance.
Lukashenko, for his part, transmitted intelligence information about the presence of fortifications and defense structures in the Suwalki corridor area. The President of Belarus noted that taking control of the 100-kilometer corridor to Kaliningrad “will not be an easy walk.” For his part, Lukashenko promised to help with logistics, but emphasized that the participation of Belarusian troops is extremely undesirable. Both Shoigu and Gerasimov and, in fact, Putin insisted that Belarus would have to take part in the breakthrough. And this will be a preemptive strike that will ruin the enemy's plans. However, and this is important, Lukashenko did not say the last “yes”.
As for nuclear weapons, there are currently no serious specialists in Belarus, which is why joint exercises are needed. Information about the alleged preparation of a nuclear strike on Ukraine is complete nonsense. The good thing about the nuclear button is that people are afraid of it only until it is pressed. Then the fact of intimidation stops working.
Rumor has it that Lukashenko managed to agree on a number of economic preferences for Belarus. At the same time, he was flattered by the respect with which Putin received him.
VIDEO
1. Russian Troops Panic! US to Equip Ukraine JDAM Bombs with New Seekers
U.S. Defense News
167K subscribers
May 9, 2024
8:21 Minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KN5rvgePD54
The US Air Force has been the first to respond to growing reports that Russian EW jamming is severely impacting the effectiveness of Ukraine’s Western-supplied GPS-guided munitions, including the Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (Jdam-ER) precision-guided glide bombs that have been in use since early 2023 deployed on Kyiv’s Soviet-era MiG-29 “Fulcrum” and Su-27 “Flanker” fighters.
2. Update from Ukraine | The most massive strike on Ruzzian Oil Refineries
Denys Davydov
813K subscribers
May 9, 2024 11:00 p.m. EDT
17:27 Minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83BnLRR1_N8
3. Ukraine obliterates Russian tanks & kamikaze drones as Putin ramps up strikes after Victory Parade
The Sun
5.18M subscribers
5-10-2024 3:15 a.m. EDT
8:24 Minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLhnVPKo7NA
4. STREAMING VIDEO -
🔴 HUGE EXPLOSIONS INSIDE RUSSIA, NEAR COLLAPSE! Breaking Ukraine War News With The Enforcer (Day 806)
The Enforcer
5-10-2024 10:00 p.m
3:02:52 Minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNBHDSAM7CA
“Huge explosions have occurred all across Russia as multiple Oil Refineries have been destroyed in hours.
-Russian oil companies are beginning to fail and are begging Putin to bail them out as they keep taking heavy losses.
-the Victory day parade was a disaster, with no armored vehicles present, and the fireworks display malfunctioning, spraying the crowd with hot gunpowder.
-Russian forces have taken some of their highest losses today, and have taken nearly no new ground.”
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is retaining his position in the Russian government for Russian President Vladimir Putin's new term of office, and there have been speculations but no confirmations of changes to Putin's cabinet. The Russian State Duma voted overwhelmingly in support of Mishustin’s renomination as prime minister, and Putin signed the corresponding decree reappointing Mishustin on May 10.[41] Russian outlet RBK, citing three sources familiar with personnel consultations in the Kremlin, reported that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov will retain his title as Deputy Prime Minister but will relinquish his post as Minister of Industry and Trade, and RBK reported that Kaliningrad Oblast Head Anton Alikhanov will take over this position.[42] Putin publicly embarrassed Manturov in January 2023, and Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu heavily criticized Manturov on May 2, 2024, but RBK’s source stated that the new appointment is “logical and expected” as all the possible candidates for the Minister of Industry and Trade are “in one way or another, from Manturov’s team.”[43] Russian State Duma Chairperson Vyacheslav Volodin stated that the Duma will consider appointments for deputy prime ministers and ministerial positions on May 14.[44]
Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko announced on May 10 that she delivered a list of candidates to Putin for the head of the Federation Council Accounts Chamber, which notably includes Presidential Control Directorate Deputy Head Boris Kovalchuk.[45] Boris Kovalchuk is the son of Putin's “personal banker” Yuri Kovalchuk, who is often credited with being Putin's close confidant and influential ideologue, including reportedly being one of three Russians to convince Putin to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.[46] Yuri Kovalchuk is also a close associate of Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergey Kiriyenko, whose own influence has expanded following the start of the full-scale invasion.[47] Putin only recently appointed Boris Kovalchuk to his post in the Presidential Control Directorate on March 15, before which Boris Kovalchuk headed the Russian energy company Inter RAO for 15 years.[48] The other two candidates for Federation Council Accounts Chamber head include Accounts Chamber Acting Head Galina Izotova, who has served in this position since the former head resigned in 2022 and served as deputy head since 2019, and Anatoly Artamonov, chairperson of the Federation Council Committee on Budget and Financial Markets.[49] Boris Kovalchuk is the only one of these three candidates to lack a doctorate in economics and extensive experience in the field.[50] Boris Kovalchuk's candidacy for a Federation Council post given his lack of experience and newness to the presidential administration is notable given Yuri Kovalchuk's closeness to Putin, indicating that Kovalchuk's favor with Putin may be increasing. Putin will consider Matvienko’s list of candidates and choose one for the Federation Council to consider in the coming days.[51]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10-2024
According to the source, Udodov and Mishustin actively use administrative resources in Azerbaijan.
The fact is that Mishustin is a friend and partner of the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Ali Asadov. Udodov also serves all tax interests of the group of Araz Agalarov, God Nisanov and Zarakh Iliev. Helps to minimize tax payments, often reducing them by 10 times what special (largest) taxpayers owe to the country's budget. Mishustin, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service Naryshkin and these oligarchs are partners in a number of areas. As our interlocutor said, Mishustin introduced Udodov to Naryshkin, Agalarov and even the Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Asadov. “Azerbaijani friends” gave the company SHEER ONE INVESTMENT LLC to Mishustin and Udodov for the fictitious re-registration of their foreign assets in order to circumvent American and European sanctions. Mishustin and Udodov are using all resources and tools so as not to lose large businesses and real estate abroad. As www.Rucriminal.info previously reported, in order to evade sanctions, one of the main commercial assets in Germany of Mishustin and Udodov - VGCargo Gmbh - was registered in the name of the Azerbaijani company SHEER ONE INVESTMENT LLC. Udodov and Mishustin are most afraid of losing this asset, since it is one of the largest assets in the field of logistics throughout Germany.
The migrant driver of a bus that fell into the river in St. Petersburg turned out to be an ISIS terrorist.
The fall of a bus into the Moika River in St. Petersburg was a terrorist attack. Our sources in the intelligence services say this off the record. The bus driver, as is known, was a 44-year-old native of Tajikistan. The intelligence services have already discovered the driver's connection with ISIS. (ISIS is a terrorist organization banned in Russia.) At the same time, an unspoken ban was given on publicly acknowledging the involvement of ISIS in this incident. A source in the FSB claims that ISIS has seriously changed the mechanics of carrying out terrorist attacks.
“Due to the strengthening of measures to track explosives, (terrorists - ed.) are forced to use new forms of terrorist attacks. Using drivers in public transport is one of the “know-hows.” A week earlier, FSB officers were able to prevent a similar attack in one of the cities of the central Russia. But it's impossible to cover everything,” says our interlocutor.
And he adds: “That's why we began to put harsh pressure on the Tajiks, to expel them. Not because we are xenophobes and don't like anyone there. But because we know that among them there are the highest number of ISIS supporters,” said the FSB officer. For this reason, by the way, the issuance of labor permits has been paused in St. Petersburg . “We received operational information that there would be a terrorist attack. We checked everyone, but we didn't think that the attack would come from that direction,” our source said. Law enforcement agencies fear a leak that ISIS terrorists were involved in the attack. At the same time, there are some dissatisfied in the FSB and the police that the authorities decided to hide the real threat. A high-ranking interlocutor suggested that in order to avoid leaks, the media and telegram channels began to actively disseminate information that the first to rush to help the victims were supporters of Islam from Dagestan. After all, they were not the only ones who rushed to save the bus passengers. Interlocutors at the FSB advise us to look around more carefully in the next 1.5-2 weeks. After all, the threat still remains. Although the special services are working to eliminate it. *
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4069
Probably ISKP and not ISIS. It is not easy to understand the difference or they have so far only banned ISIS and not ISKP see https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6152#6152
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin submitted proposals on the composition of the new Russian government to the State Duma on May 11.[40] Mishustin proposed that current Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev become a Deputy Prime Minister and that current Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit become the Minister of Transport.[41] Mishustin also proposed that current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov leave his position as Minister of Industry and Trade and become First Deputy Prime Minister. Mishustin nominated current Kaliningrad Oblast Governor Anton Alikhanov to replace Manturov as Minister of Industry and Trade. Dmitry Patrushev is notably the son of Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and this is the second recent case of nominations to high ranking positions for children of people in Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle after Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko nominated Boris Kovalchuk – the son of Putin's “personal banker” Yuri Kovalchuk – as a candidate for the head of the Federation Council Accounts Chamber on May 10.[42]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2024
A few words about the new government
The composition of the new government is currently being discussed with all its might, and this is really important, despite the fact that many issues are supervised directly by the Kremlin.
If the candidacy of Mishustin as Prime Minister did not raise any questions, then the appointment of Dmitry Patrushev as Deputy Prime Minister looks extremely logical. However, not all groups in the elite agree with this. But in vain! Patrushev once again proved his effectiveness as Minister of Agriculture, when there was first an egg crisis, then chicken suddenly disappeared from stores somewhere. A great professional with an experienced team, of which there are few today.
It is worth noting that Dmitry Patrushev has overstayed his welcome in his current position and it's really time for him to be promoted. It was rumored that Patrushev Sr. lobbied for the appointment of his son as head of the FSB, but Bortnikov managed to maintain his position and influence, despite the latest scandals.
Separately, we also note in the government the transfer of a number of governors to Moscow. This is due to the need to change personnel locally and launch the same social elevator that was promised to officials sent to work in new regions. And in general, emphasize that the position of governor can be a springboard even in conditions of limited changes in the system.
Upon his return from Moscow, Lukashenko fired the head of his General Staff. The reason became known:
Alexander Lukashenko, after returning from Moscow, where he had many hours of negotiations with Vladimir Putin (in the presence of generals Shoigu and Gerasimov), fired the head of his General Staff, Viktor Gulevich. The news did not cause a resonance in our segment of the Internet, but in vain.
According to our information, Lukashenko met with Viktor Gulevich and Viktor Khrenin (Minister of Defense) in Minsk. He provided a plan for a possible attack on the Suwalki Gap, which was discussed in Moscow.( https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6349#6349 ) Let us remind you that Lukashenko has not yet given final consent to participate in this story. But Gulevich completely refused to carry out such an order and asked for his resignation. The conversation ended in a raised tone, but Gulevich said that even under the threat of prison he would not enter the war. For which he was fired on the same day.
It is worth noting here that Belarus is a small country, and such experienced personnel as Gulevich should not be wasted. In any case, we will not be surprised if Gulevich emerges in a different position tomorrow. As sources say, Lukashenko calmly accepted the resignation, because he himself was not delighted with the proposal of his Moscow comrades, but had to show Gulevich his place.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4074
Gulevich is right: Lukashenko cannot trust his army to follow orders to attack NATO.
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