Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
The activity of Russian aircraft over Ukraine has decreased, and long-range radar detection aircraft A-50 has not appeared near the Ukrainian border in a week.
On the evening of 2 March 2024, following reports of the shooting down of another Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber (in the morning), the intensive work to down two Russian aircraft, a Su-34 and a Su-35, and eventual shooting down of another Su-34, screenshots appeared on Oleshchuk's Telegram channel with the message that there are currently no Russian aircraft over the occupied territory of Ukraine (only reconnaissance drones are in operation).
On 3 March, Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, confirmed to Ukrainska Pravda that the Russians had clearly reduced their use of aircraft on various fronts. This is not the first time this has happened since the full-scale war began, but it is the result of Ukrainian Air Force's recent effective combat work.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/03/3/7444751/
One of the reasons for this according to a Russian blogger:
Pilots are being threatened due to refusals to fly on missions in the air defense zone.
Lately there has been more and more tragic news for our aerospace forces. We will not name the exact number of planes shot down in recent days, but we are not talking about one or two aircraft. What is most tragic is that our experienced fighter pilots are irretrievably lost. Alas, the command is trying to hush up the fact that the pilots are reluctant to go on missions and there are even attempts at sabotage.
“We don't quite understand how the crests began to shoot down so many of our birds, but the pilots are not in a good mood. Many are involved in strikes with the help of FABs, without this it is now difficult to attack,” a source in the VKS command tells us.
According to another interlocutor, pilots are aware of the increased risks, but this should not affect the effectiveness of their combat missions. “They are in service, now it is important to protect the Motherland. Whether you want to fly or not, an order is an order,” one of the generals said sternly.
At the same time, one of the pilots, on condition of anonymity, admitted that the pilots were discussing various options among themselves, including a collective appeal to Vladimir Putin and Sergei Shoigu. “You see, pilot training is not a cheap process. This is something that takes years to learn. Now we have tragic news from the fronts every day. Everyone understands that they could die tomorrow,” said the fighter pilot. He reluctantly admitted that the command was threatening the pilots if they refused to fly out on combat missions.
Transfers of North Korean weapons to Russia by sea apparently paused as of mid-February 2024. North Korea-focused outlet NK Pro reported on February 29, citing satellite imagery, that Russian ships involved in the maritime transport of North Korean ammunition and weaponry to Russia have not docked at North Korea's Rajin Port since February 12.[8] NK Pro reported that Russian ships have made at least 32 trips between the Rajin Port and Russia's Dunay and Vostochny ports, Primorsky Krai since August 2023. NK Pro reported that the Russian Lady R cargo ship transported an unspecified number of shipping containers, likely containing North Korean ammunition and weapons, between North Korea and Russia from January 30 to February 8 and that the Maia-1 cargo ship arrived at Russia's Vostochny Port from North Korea on February 12. NK Pro reported that satellite imagery has not captured another large cargo ship traveling between the two piers or new deliveries to the Rajin Port since February 12 and suggested that the pause could be due to production issues in North Korea or other logistical issues. NK Pro noted that North Korea could also be transporting weapons to Russia via air or rail. ISW previously reported that Russia uses the Baikal-Amur Railway and the East Siberian Railway to facilitate cargo transfers from and to China and North Korea, both countries that Russia is increasingly relying on for economic and military support respectively to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.[9] South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik stated on February 26 that North Korea has sent an estimated 6,700 shipping containers of ammunition to Russia in recent months.[10] Shin stated that these containers could carry over three million 152mm artillery shells or roughly 500,000 122mm shells.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-2-2024
Recent relatively high Russian aviation losses appear to be prompting a significant decrease in Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine, although it is unclear how long this decrease in activity will last. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk stated on March 2 that Russian aviation activity completely stopped in eastern Ukraine around 19:00 local time following the Ukrainian downing of two Russian Su-34 aircraft.[9] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated that the decrease in Russian aviation activity continued on March 3 and that Russian forces have continued not to fly A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft following the destruction of an A-50 aircraft on February 23.[10] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces have lost 15 aircraft since February 17, which is not negligible for the Russian military given that Russia likely has about 300 various Sukhoi fighter aircraft.[11] Previous Russian aircraft losses have prompted Russian forces to temporarily decrease aviation activity throughout Ukraine for significant periods of time, although it remains unclear how long this current period of temporarily decreased Russian aviation activity will last.[12] Russian forces appeared to tolerate an increased rate of aviation losses in recent weeks in order to conduct glide bomb strikes in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, and the Russian command may decide in the future to assume the risk of continued aviation losses in pursuit of further tactical gains.[13]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-4-2024
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 5, 2024
Russia and China are deepening their strategic space cooperation, including cooperation on satellite surveillance and space exploration. Russian space agency Roscosmos Head Yuri Borisov stated on March 5 that Russia and China are considering delivering and constructing a nuclear power plant on the moon in 2032-2035.[17] Though Borisov’s proposal to create a nuclear power plant on the moon is odd, Borisov’s statement is indicative of warming relations and Chinese willingness to foster a long-term strategic partnership with Russia to posture against and possibly threaten the West. The Russian government approved a Russian-Chinese cooperation agreement on space cooperation through 2027 in November 2023 that Roscosmos and the Chinese National Space Administration (CNSA) initially signed in November 2022.[18] The agreement outlines three phases to develop and build the International Scientific Lunar Station and jointly explore the moon’s surface. Roscosmos and CNSA also signed an agreement in September 2022 on the joint placement of Russian GLONASS and Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system stations in six Russian and Chinese cities.[19] Russia is reportedly developing a space-based anti-satellite weapon, and a strategic space partnership with China suggests that Russia would be unlikely to use this or similar technology against China and that both states would mutually benefit from Russia’s posturing against the West through space and satellite technology.[20]
Unspecified Russian authorities are reportedly disbanding elements of the former Wagner Group that were supposed to join Rosgvardia or are currently in Belarus. A Russian insider source claimed that unspecified actors decided to disband the former Wagner base in Kazachi Lageri, Rostov Oblast, which Wagner retained control over when operating as part of the Rosgvardia Volunteer Corps.[63] The Russian insider source claimed that Wagner Commander Anton Yelizarov (call sign “Lotos”) could not reach an agreement on financing the Wagner Group and that unspecified actors forced Lotos to hand the base over to Rosgvardia. The insider source claimed that Wagner personnel began to disperse to different units after long periods of inactivity. Wagner personnel are reportedly criticizing Lotos for disbanding the Wagner base and voicing complaints about Lotos’ previous decisions, such as his handling of malaria outbreaks during Wagner combat missions in the Central African Republic (CAR) or the fact that Lotos did not want to fight at an unspecified frontline. The insider source also claimed that Wagner will also disband its forces training Belarusian forces in Belarus after the completion of this training.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu continued to highlight that ongoing Russian military restructuring efforts are meant to prepare for a potential future large-scale conventional war with NATO. Shoigu stated on March 5 that the Russian military is strengthening its forces in the northwestern and western direction, including by creating the Leningrad Military District (LMD) and Moscow Military District (MMD), in response to Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to NATO.[64] ISW continues to assess that Russia would likely use an increased military presence on NATO’s eastern flank to intensify threats against NATO to further Russia’s long-term goal of weakening and containing the alliance.[65]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-5-2024
What did Avdiivka cost us? Truly terrible figures have become known.
The capture of Avdiivka and further advance on this section of the front is the largest victory of the Russian army over the past year. The military command was in a hurry to drive the Ukrainian Armed Forces out of there before the March presidential elections. It was expected that Vladimir Vladimirovich would even record a video with Avdiivka in the background (but later this idea was abandoned).
A secret report on the results of the battles for Aviivka came into our hands. It is worth noting that the city, like a bone in the throat, prevented the alignment of the front, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces had the opportunity to shoot at Donetsk from there, including using cannon artillery.
From November 1, 2023 to March 1, 2024, in Avdiivka and on the approaches to it, our army lost:
➖14,453 dead
➖1,267 are missing
➖42,312 were injured and/or amputated.
The scale of losses in equipment is also known. In the battles for Avdiivka our troops lost:
➖242 tanks
➖384 armored vehicles
➖312 artillery systems
Sergei Shoigu has these figures. He also reported to Vladimir Putin about the capture of the city, but then there was no definitive data. Obviously, Shoigu is in no hurry to report such colossal losses in technology. The President previously took the loss of equipment in [Ukraine] very hard.
Why are we publishing this information? There are several questions regarding Avdiivka. The main one is that another destroyed city will not bring anything to the budget in the coming years, and we have already spent huge amounts of money on its capture (and still have to invest in restoration). Also, in the battles for the city, almost 60 thousand military personnel were killed or injured. And these are only those who could be counted. Perhaps our command's tactics need to be adjusted? We really hope that there will be people around Vladimir Vladimirovich who will talk about the real scale of the tragedy in Avdiivka.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3713
In the brutal nine-year conflict in Afghanistan 1979-1989, an estimated one million civilians were killed, as well as 90,000 Mujahideen fighters, 18,000 Afghan troops, and 14,500 Soviet soldiers.
https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/08/the-soviet-war-in-afghanistan-1979-1989/100786/
Russia can’t manage against Western military tactics, even when they’re implemented in just the limited scale that Ukraine can manage.
Yes, their Stalinist meat-wave tactics can succeed but only at a high cost. Can Russia afford to give up 1600 men for every square kilometer conquered? Really?
“Russian blogger: What did Avdiivka cost us? Truly terrible figures have become known.”
Thank you for sharing this. I am aware many Russians are entrapped within the misery created by their governing authorities.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 6, 2024
Armenia appears to be taking limited measures to reduce its bilateral security cooperation with Russia outside of its reduced participation in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan stated on March 6 that Armenia officially informed Russia that “only Armenian border guards” should perform duties at Zvarnots International Airport in Yerevan.[40] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Armenian service Radio Azatutyun reported that Russian border guards have been serving at the Zvarnots Airport since the signing of a 1992 Armenian-Russian agreement which regulates Russian forces in Armenia but does not specifically mention a Russian presence at Zvarnots Airport.[41]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-6-2024
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