Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
UKR supply lines to Bakhmut are safe https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.5722/37.9495
Jake Broe: Has Russia Really Lost 200,000 Soldiers?
Ukraine announced yesterday that by their estimates over 200,000 soldiers fighting for Russia have been killed so far in this war. Russia itself does not report losses and in some instances does not even record losses from their various subordinate groups fighting for them. The United States also confirmed that a Patriot Launcher did receive minor damage from a Russia missile attack two nights ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=veFkvRSqRiY
Day 449. Today, the panel discusses the news from the frontlines as the battle for Bakhmut continues. Plus, we analyse news coming out of the G7 in Japan and respond to listeners thoughts and questions on Russia, Ukraine and WW2.
Contributors:
David Knowles (Host). @DJKnowles22 on Twitter.
Genevieve Holl-Allen (Foreign Correspondent). @genevieve_holl on Twitter.
Francis Dearnley (Assistant Comment Editor). @FrancisDearnley on Twitter.
Joe Barkes (Brussels Correspondent). @Barnes_Joeon Twitter.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2023
A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukrainian counterattacks in the past 24 hours.
Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut have notably likely eliminated the threat of a Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut and forced Russian troops to allocate scarce military resources to defend against a limited and localized offensive effort, as Ukrainian command likely intended.
Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine on the night of May 18 to 19.
President Joe Biden reportedly informed G7 leaders on May 19 that Washington will support a joint effort to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s and other fourth generation aircraft.
The Kremlin reportedly spent 3.1 trillion rubles (approximately $38.7 billion) in an undisclosed section of the Russian budget in 2023, likely to on fund the war and maintain occupied territories in Ukraine.
Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announced that he will run for reelection as a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party for the first time, prompting criticism from select Russian ultranationalists.
A Ukrainian source reported that elements of two brigades of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) have deployed to border areas of Kursk Oblast in order to conduct counter-sabotage activities and provocations.
Russian sources claimed that Russian troops continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in the Bakhmut area and slightly increased their tempo of ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are preparing defenses by flooding fields in Russian occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev claimed that the Russian military has recruited 117,400 contract personnel in volunteer formations since January 1, 2023.
The Russian State Duma adopted the final reading of a draft law authorizing regional elections under martial law.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-19-2023-0
Russia may lack reserves to respond to Ukrainian counteroffensive: Officials Russia’s forces are “stretched” and diminished, Western officials said.
Russia currently has over 200,000 men in Ukraine, according to the officials, and it has built formidable defenses in occupied areas, including extensive minefields that will pose significant obstacles for the counteroffensive.
But the officials said the quality of Russia’s troops manning those defenses was dubious, saying many were badly trained and had poor morale. Moreover, officials said it appeared Russia had no dedicated reserve force to respond if Ukrainian was able to successfully pierce the line on a large scale. The Western assessment was notable because it echoes similar warnings from Russian pro-war commentators recently, who have been sounding the alarm around Russia’s preparedness to defend against the counteroffensive.
The Netherlands cancelled a deal to sell it’s remaining F-16s to Draken International, so yeah, easy to guess where they will actually end up.
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1659875567712325633
Betrayal: How Wagner could be Putin’s undoing | Stories of Our Times
It’s been a difficult fortnight for Vladimir Putin. Russia has been losing ground in the key city of Bakhmut, the man in charge of the Wagner Group seems to be publicly criticising him, and now there are even suggestions of betrayal.
Guest: Mark Galeotti, author of Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine.
Host: Manveen Rana.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUGSZ1839Rc
Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite feeling unwell, held a meeting on the progress of spring field work. The president did not dare to put up a double instead of himself, the main speaker was the Minister of Agriculture of Russia Dmitry Patrushev, the son of the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev, and to force the son of an ally so significant for Putin to participate in a circus with a double would mean expressing an extreme form of disrespect. The President groaned, panted, nervously clenched his fists, trying to suppress the tremor and give himself an interested look, but after serving an hour, he closed the meeting with relief. Putin quite loyally, and even with sympathy, treated Dmitry Patrushev in the recent past.
The president several times discussed with relatives a possible family party of his beloved daughter Katerina with Dmitry, but it did not happen. Katerina then entered into a relationship with Shamalov, whom Putin openly despised, but resigned himself to the choice of his daughter, then she plunged into a relationship with the dancer Zelensky, and again the president reconciled. Dmitry Patrushev, a great lover of a large number of women and his personal life, also built it at his own discretion, despite the unequivocal proposals of his father to show interest in Katerina. If these family relations had developed, transit would have already passed in Russia, but it did not happen.
However, Nikolai Patrushev is now the second most powerful man in Russia, and Putin chose not to risk disrespecting his son. Moreover, Nikolai Patrushev is behind the plan for a major redistribution of spheres of influence in power structures and property. Putin was acquainted with this plan at the beginning of spring and generally supported the Secretary of the Security Council, as they say he was very persistent and convincing. If, or rather, when the plan is implemented, proteges of several clans will lose their influence in the leadership of law enforcement agencies. This, according to Patrushev, will help rally the security forces and consolidate them, eliminating the possibility of confusion in the event of a political crisis.
A Russian prisoner turned Wagner soldier said Putin's army used him as ‘cannon fodder’.
Ruslan, a middle-aged Wagner soldier who has Hepatitis, was captured fighting on the frontline by the Ukrainian army. He agreed to a filmed interview with the humanitarian group Vans Without Borders (VWB) at an undisclosed location, on the condition his face was blurred. He claims he was lured to the frontline with the promise of being pardoned after six months, but in reality, he and his fellow inmates have been fighting since the Russian invasion began in February 2022. “It's just a crazy house, they take people bake them and throw them in. The shelling is chaos, it's not clear where they hit, they don't check anything.” Said Ruslan.
DW News: Ukraine front: Who stays back when everyone else evacuates? | Focus on Europe
Ukrainian special forces are trying to evacuate the last remaining civilians from the frontlines. But despite continuous shelling by Russian forces, many residents do not want to leave their homes. 6 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2ZrQp-IgwI
“I'm not going to wrap up all these developments with victory. I'm going to surprise you a little here, but victory won't bring everything to a stop. A rather difficult stage awaits us, one that will, you might say, last years: the actual reintegration of our territories.
Because I'm sorry, but we're going to get an extra 3 million people who have lived under Russian propaganda for nine years and now have a completely different perception of the world. It won't be as easy as it seems.”
By Eliot A. Cohen
To be brutal about it, we need to see masses of Russians fleeing, deserting, shooting their officers, taken captive, or dead. The Russian defeat must be an unmistakably big, bloody shambles. In other words, not an elegant ceasefire.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/ukraine-victory-russia-defeat/674112/
⚡️⚡️☠️PMC “Wagner” intends to completely leave the territory of 🇺🇦Ukraine, - 🇷🇺Russian media with reference to Prigozhin’s words
It is reported that the most experienced fighters of PMC Wagner are being transferred to Sudan
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1659938964784963584
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 20, 2023
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin declared victory in Bakhmut City on May 20 and announced his intent to withdraw from the city on May 25.
Prigozhin’s claimed victory over the remaining areas in Bakhmut is purely symbolic even if true.
Ukrainian forces continue pressuring Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks.
Wagner forces are unlikely to successfully conduct a controlled withdrawal from Bakhmut while in contact with Ukrainian forces within five days without disrupting the Russian MoD’s efforts to prepare for planned Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Russian conventional forces likely will still need to transfer additional forces to the Bakhmut direction even if Wagner mercenaries remain in Bakhmut.
Russian forces targeted Kyiv Oblast with Iranian-made Shahed drones on the night of May 19 to 20.
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated on May 20 that the United States may agree to transfer modern combat aircraft to Ukraine, including the F-16, on the condition that Ukraine does not use them to strike Russian territory.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian sources are falsely alleging that high-ranking Ukrainian military commanders have recently died, likely to demoralize Ukrainian forces and to portray Russian forces as constraining Ukrainian counteroffensive capabilities.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks in the Kreminna area.
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
The Washington Post reported on May 19 that a Ukrainian commander stated that Ukrainian Special Operations forces conduct raids in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast but that Ukrainian forces do not hold stable positions there.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is incorporating mobilized and conscripted personnel into its own “Veterany” private military company (PMC), leading to discrimination and conflict.
A Lithuanian official publicly accused Russia of attempting to hold international children hostage in occupied Crimea as “human shields” against a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-20-2023
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