Posted on 02/28/2022 8:10:18 PM PST by Mariner
A Russian military convoy that was outside of Ivankiv, Ukraine, on Sunday has since made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show.
On Sunday, the convoy was roughly 40 miles northwest of the Ukrainian capital, according to images provided by Maxar Technologies.
Maxar said that roughly 17 miles of roadway is chocked full of the convoy, which consists of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other logistical vehicles.
The private US company said the convoy was located on the T-1011 highway at Antonov air base around 11:11 a.m local time.
Antonov is roughly 17 miles from the center of the Ukrainian capital.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Russia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation of Ukrainian territories with Russians.
The Kremlin continues measures to codify conditions for domestic repression.
Comments made by Russian officials and prominent voices in the Russian information space continue to highlight a pervasive anxiety over potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.
Chinese President Xi Jinping explicitly recognized Ukraine's sovereignty and independence, stating that mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity are foundational to Ukrainian-Chinese relations in a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Kremlin is likely attempting to reassure Armenia that it is a reliable partner despite the fact that the war in Ukraine is limiting Russia's ability to play a larger role in mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Kremlin may attempt to use conscripts to maintain peacekeeping operations in Nagorno Karabakh and preserve relations with Armenia and other Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member states.
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces made gains within Bakhmut and north of Avdiivka.
Russian milbloggers continue to argue amongst themselves about Ukrainian activity along the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
Russian authorities have started sending military registration summonses that include threats of “restrictive measures.”
Russian sources claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) prevented an attempted attack in Crimea.
Competition among Russian private military companies (PMCs) is likely increasing in Bakhmut. A video appeal addressed to Russian President Vladimir Putin by personnel of the “Potok” PMC (reportedly one of three volunteer detachments from Russian-state owned energy company Gazprom) claims that Gazprom officials told members of “Potok” that they would be signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) but then forced personnel to sign contracts with PMC “Redut.”[5] One Potok soldier claimed that Gazprom created two other units — “Fakel” and “Plamya,” which were attached to the Russian MoD.[6] A Russian milblogger claimed that ”Potok“ is not a PMC, but a BARS (Combat Reserve) unit, however.[7] The ”Potok” personnel also reported poor treatment by Wagner fighters who threatened to shoot ”Potok” personnel if they withdrew from the line of contact. A Wagner fighter claimed in an interview published on April 26 that ”Potok” fighters abandoned Wagner's flanks at night.[8] A Russian milblogger claimed that “Potok” fighters abandoned their positions in Bakhmut due to a lack of ammunition.[9] ISW previously assessed that Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin likely views the proliferation of PMCs around Bakhmut as competition, and it appears that the increased prevalence of other PMCs around Bakhmut may be causing substantial friction.[10]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-26-2023
HOW PUTIN CAME TO HATE UKRAINE
An investigation into how the Russian president came up with the idea of a war with Ukraine
Putin’s motives for starting a war with Ukraine were personal resentment and a desire for revenge. The last straw was the closure of the media assets of his godfather Viktor Medvedchuk. Putin decided to attack Kyiv in February-March 2021, the sources of Nestka say. Preparations for the invasion went on for almost a year, but all this time the Kremlin proceeded from the wrong assumptions and calculations.
More
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-motive-ukraine-invasion-viktor-medvedchuk-1796774
The first attempt to split Ukraine
How Putin was offended by America
What philosophers taught the Russian president to be anti-Ukrainian
How Putin decided to seize the Crimea
Why did the Russian president take offense at Zelensky
When the decision to war was ripe
Original in Russian https://verstka.media/kak-putin-pridumal-voynu
Interesting long read on “how Putin came to hate Ukraine” by Ilya Zhegulev. Based on insider interviews. Claims that decision for war was taken in Feb-Mar 2021. “Last straw” – closing of Medvedchuk’s TV channels.
Consistent w/ others, says Putin didn’t consult many people, & that Yuri Kovalchuk was v influential during pandemic. Putin thought regime change in Kyiv would be easy. “Kovalchuk convinced him that the West is weak; Medvedchuk convinced him that Ukraine is weak & loyal.
Putin believed for years that US controlled Ukraine. Claims Shoigu was supportive of invasion but “many siloviki were opposed” (doesn’t say who). Concludes by claiming most of elite is opposed, & alleges that Kiriyenko uses FSB to pressure people who want to leave to stay.
A lot of detail about 2014, Minsk Agreements, shattered hopes of Putin to get Zelensky to agree to Russian interpretation of Minsk. Also some intriguing little tidbits, such as an alleged SVOP (Karaganov & Lukyanov shop) closed meeting a week before invasion.
https://twitter.com/bdtaylor_SU/status/1650889327163895809
Only those who have been here will understand 😔
https://twitter.com/frontlinekit/status/1651339818889097217
The pain in his words is deafening
The Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, and logistics.
The three command organs that are reportedly receiving new leadership as part of this reshuffle are noteworthy because they are associated with managing aspects of Russian force generation, troop sustainment, and logistical oversight.
Western officials expressed confidence in Ukraine's ability to conduct a successful counteroffensive.
Russian forces are reportedly using new tactics to complicate Ukrainian air defenses’ ability to detect Russian missiles.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov appears to have launched a renewed campaign for national attention.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Iranian Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani in New Delhi, India on April 27.
Russian forces conducted defensive operations in the Kupyansk direction and limited ground attacks near Kreminna.
Russian forces did not make any confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut but may be transferring additional reserves to the Bakhmut area.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces are further militarizing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to defend against possible Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
Ukrainian partisans conducted three separate attacks in occupied territories on April 26-27.
The Washington Post reported that leaked US intelligence documents state that Russian military leaders aim to enlist 815,000 soldiers while balancing concerns about critical labor shortages.[43]
The Washington Post noted that Russia is facing its worst workforce shortage in 20 years.[44] Russian news agency Interfax reported on April 26 that the Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) stopped publishing monthly state oil production statistics.[45] This may indicate state efforts to obscure decreased production and falling revenue.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2023
The destruction of the Russian economy is accelerating.
This are two possibilities. Th 815,000 is official wishful thinking of what they know is impossible. It is more of the same of sending untrained conscripts from outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg to the front and forcing who possess technical skills to factories.
Yes, and Putin is really destroying Russia, we couldn’t have done it more effectively. And all this at a very low cost, it’s a bargain. ;-)
2. Additional FPV loitering munition strikes against Russian ATGM positions in the area.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1651820192744308736
SpringIsComing
Energy and military analysts are reporting that Russian state energy utility Gazprom has set up its own private army and sent recruits to the frontline in Ukraine. Oil and gas companies have long employed people with military backgrounds to protect their assets around the world. However, it now appears those personnel are being used to help the Kremlin with its invasion of Ukraine. And it's not the only company sending their workers to fight on the front line. RusEnergy analyst Mikhail Krutikhin brings DW Business his insights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkXoSqSbWiU
More PMC groups, actually preparing for the collapse.
The attacked oil storage in Russian-occupied Sevastopol is at following coordinates:
44°35'1.02”N, 33°25'2.22”E
Based on the footages my damage assessment is as follows:
Red: Total loss
Yellow: Heavy damage or total loss
But thermal damage and the fact that the oil silos are interconnected it is most likely that the entire facility a complete loss, even those silos which were not directly affected.
You may not be interested in Russia. But Russia is interested in you. Writes Kier Giles in his book: Russia's War on Everybody. Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine in 2022 is a challenge to the West also, and has prompted a range of responses, but also hesitancy, anxiety, and caution. From the expansion of NATO to military investment planning, supply of equipment and training of Ukraine troops, the Western alliance, as well as many other countries, are in this war, whether they fully acknowledge and embrace it, or not. But Russia has been waging a clandestine war against the West for decades. Hostile acts abroad, from poisoning dissidents to shooting down airliners, interfering in elections, spying, hacking, and murdering, have long been part and parcel of Kremlin foreign policy. But what is it all for? Why does Russia consistently behave like this? And what does it achieve?
2/ http://Tayga.info reports that Captain Valery Spivak, instructor Sergey Brovko, senior lieutenant Anton Molchanov, Captain Denis Grebennikov, Captain Dmitry Kutuzov and Major Andrei Chistyakov earned millions of rubles from a series of separate fuel thefts.
read the full text
10/ Fuel thefts are endemic in the Russian armed forces – many Russian servicemen regard military fuel as a ‘second currency’ (after rubles) which they freely appropriate, often with the aid of corrupt depot managers who act as middlemen.
11/ During the initial phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, many Russian vehicles ran out of fuel because their drivers or depot managers had sold it to the Belarussians.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1651966786345091072
source https://tayga.info/181236
The head of the defense committee of the State Duma invited the Russians to defend the borders themselves
The head of the Defense Committee of the State Duma, Andrei Kartopolov, believes that the local population can be involved in protecting the Russian borders. According to him, this is due to the fact that Russia does not have the ability to protect the borders along the entire perimeter, as it was in the USSR.
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5953942
Andrei Turchak said that the working group, created by decree of Mr. Putin at the end of 2022, had processed more than 25,000 requests. The group also prepared a number of proposals, including:
to give participants in territorial defense and voluntary people's squads in the regions the right to carry and use weapons;
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5952725
This explains the explosive growth of private military companies (PMCs)
Order popcorn!
Yes, give the locals weapons. I’m sure there is no possibility that they might march to Moscow with those weapons instead of using them to defend the border.
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