Posted on 08/26/2021 2:34:38 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Ida became a tropical storm over the West-Central Caribbean Sea. Initial forecast model guidance predicts landfall as a hurricane in the North-Central Gulf of Mexico.
Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.
Tropical Tidbits by Levi Cowan
Local News Sources:
NOLA.com New Orleans Local
WWLTV.com New Orleans Local
KPLC.com Lake Charles Local
WLOX.com Biloxi MS Local
FOX4 Beaumont Beaumont/Port Arthur Local
KHOU.com Houston Local
Eh, looks like NOAA is sending one up, now...
Pressure down 1 MB...
300 AM CT Update
-------------------------------
About 85 MI S of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
Max Sustained Winds...130 MPH
Moving...NW at 15 MPH
Minimum Pressure...948 MB
Oh frak!
Getting up for work- checking in. Looks like she’s cookin’.
Godspeed, Louisiana.
Thanks for checking in. Keeping our Louisiana FRiends in our prayers.
Both NHC planes are now down. NOAA plane is next up.
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
Ida has undergone some dramatic inner-core structural changes since
the previous advisory. The eye between 25,000-45,000 ft has become
circular with a diameter of about 15 nmi now, and at least two
eyewall mesocyclones have been noted rotating cyclonically around
the eyewall in both radar and high-resolution 1-minute GOES-16
satellite imagery. The result has been rapid strengthening of at
least 30 kt during the past 6 hours, along with a pressure drop of
more than 15 mb during that same time, with a 6-mb decrease having
occurred in the 1-hr period between about 0500-0600 UTC based on Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft eye dropsonde data. The
aircraft also measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of
133 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a peak SFMR surface
wind speed of 116 kt. Furthermore, NWS Doppler radar velocity data
from Slidell, Louisiana, has recently been measuring velocities of
120-130 kt between 25,000-30,000 ft, which is quite rare, and
indicates that Ida is a vertically deep and intense hurricane. Ida
was initialized with 115 kt at 0600 UTC, but the 0900 UTC advisory
intensity has been increased to 120 kt based on the 133-kt
flight-level wind and the improved structure in both radar data and
satellite imagery since the 0609 UTC time of that aircraft
observation.
The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/13 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic
reasoning. The subtropical ridge oriented east-west along 30N-31N
across the southeastern U.S. is forecast to remain intact through
the forecast period with only minor shifts in the location and
strength of the ridge. As a result, Ida should continue to move
northwestward toward the southeastern Louisiana coast today,
followed by a gradual turn toward the north tonight after landfall.
On Monday, the hurricane is expected to move northeastward across
the Tennessee Valley when Ida moves north of the ridge axis.
Impacts and hazards will arrive well before the eye of the hurricane
makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to begin later
this morning. Therefore, all preparations to protect life and
property must be rushed to completion. The new track forecast is
basically just an update of the previous advisory track.
Ida will remain over waters with high oceanic heat content for
another 6 hours or so. Thereafter, the heat content will drop
sharply to less than half of the current value of more than 100
units. However, some additional strengthening is expected until
landfall occurs. After Ida moves inland tonight, rapid weakening is
forecast due to a combination of land interaction, entrainment
of drier air, and some increase in westerly vertical wind shear.
Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the
track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will
extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread
inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through
early next week.
Add to the warning that NO is still under a Democrat mayor;
LaToya Cantrell
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaToya_Cantrell
And the local government, especially the Levee Boards are just as corrupt as they were before and after Katrina.
God please help the people there.
Northeast quadrant hit to N.O.
I guess we’re gonna see how Prince Valium handles a natural disaster.
CC
Track nudged back west again .. similar to the 4pm track
Is there a conversion for cat 5 into milibars or barometric pressure.How low would the barometer have to be to be a cat five.
Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND IDA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to 145 mph (230 km/h).
A NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported
a sustained wind of 60 mph (96 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (118
km/h).
SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
Category is determined by wind speed not barometric pressure.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale
Is there a conversion for cat 5 into milibars or barometric pressure.How low would the barometer have to be to be a cat five.
—
it’s based on winds speeds not pressure
it depends on the surrounding conditions (ie general pressure)
and storm size (larger storms need lower pressures for CAT 5)
but once it gets below 925-930mb it’s possible
Good morning, and thanks for the thread. Checking in from the Baton Rouge area.
Yeah I realize its all about wind speed. I was just wondering if there was a correlation between wind speed and baro,guess not.THanks very much.Is there a cold front to the north controlling the track?
There is a correlation. The lower the barometric pressure at the center of the storm, the faster the winds because air will move from high pressure areas to low pressure areas. The larger the difference, the faster the wind speed.
https://sciencing.com/barometric-pressure-vs-wind-speed-hurricane-19558.html
I don’t log out, but I have to log in each visit.
Failure to evacuate seems obvious to me. They know nobody will come back, except the ones they want to leave. People with a choice, will prefer anywhere else the land.
The key to this for Nola and Miss. will be how much of the surge are rideseast of the Plaquimine Peninsula, and what happens to that portion of the surge depends on how much of the eyewall rides east of the Peninsula. That combination is what leads to “surge multiplication.”
The forecast general surge won’t threaten ACE’s high vis, or bread and butter projects. It WILL BREACH neglected corners, and weak connection points between major flood protection systems, plus any and all sections where La or NO was the lead decision maker during planning or construction.
Surge multiplication, if significant, will act in addition to this.
When it comes to NO, I’m tempted to root for the storm. But the real losers will be Mississippi. Katrina’s surge broke NO’s unmaintained protection, but was gone long before most of NO flooded. That was just stupidity and greed and normal sea level.
The real surge damage was in Mississippi.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.