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Florida Early Vote update, 11/03/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 11/03/2020 | self

Posted on 11/03/2020 5:45:18 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 673,828

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 558,412

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 115,416


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: florida
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To: byecomey

polls close 7pm as of 10:08 update

rep net +22,129

9 hours or 27 updates ending at 7pm eastern

if rep average +5000 net then end up +155K
if rep average +7500 net then end up +224,500
if rep average 10,000 net then end up +292,000
if rep average 12,500 then the n end up +359,500

but then
REP bonus: an extra hour and panhandle only

10:48am update +13,826


81 posted on 11/03/2020 7:36:43 AM PST by janetjanet998
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To: southpaw1
If this ED gap is an indicator of a national trend...

This will be incredible, especially since R's seem to have kept it reasonably close in many swing states in early vote.

82 posted on 11/03/2020 7:38:35 AM PST by TontoKowalski (You can call me "Dick.")
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Registered Ds - 5,303,254
Registered Rs - 5,169,102

Ds Voted - 3695319
Rs Voted - 3731076

D turnout = 69.7%
R turnout = 72.2%

2016 Ds - 74.4%, Rs - 81.2%


83 posted on 11/03/2020 7:38:58 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: DaxtonBrown; LS; Ravi; SpeedyInTexas; Coop; au ng; byecomey

As I noted weeks ago, Collier County, FL is ground zero for Trump’s base. As of right now, Collier leads Florida in turnout with 82.3% turnout and is heading for the low 90s. Trump carried Collier in 2016 with 61% of the vote (105K total Trump votes). Trump is on par to win over 70% of Collier with a higher turnout. #momentum.

I think Stacey Abrams is warming up her vocal cords...


84 posted on 11/03/2020 7:40:25 AM PST by bort
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To: bort

“Stacey Abrams is warming up her vocal cords”

LOL


85 posted on 11/03/2020 7:44:15 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: All

A bit more sensitivity stuff: NPAs will likely arrive at about 2.5M.

1% lean either way would be 25K.

There will now be an avalanche of comments saying “I think they will lean R”. Doesn’t matter what one thinks in sensitivity checks.

A lead of 75K deals with a 3% lean against. 2% is 50K and 1% is 25K.

So running up the score is a good thing for R lead.


86 posted on 11/03/2020 7:47:17 AM PST by Owen
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To: Owen

200k or 300k would be almost insurmountable for Biden.


87 posted on 11/03/2020 7:53:24 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

nod


88 posted on 11/03/2020 7:53:46 AM PST by Owen
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I think the morning rush (before work) is done and it’ll be slowing down (for both mind you) and we start picking up again around 3pm.


89 posted on 11/03/2020 7:56:56 AM PST by JerseyRepub
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To: ScottinVA

No, that was the previous weekend.

The main cause of the D pickup from 94K to 115K was the continued incoming mail count on Sunday and Monday when most in-person early voting sites were closed on Sunday (a few open, but not many); and *no* in person early voting sites open on Monday.

Both campaigns thought Joe needed upwards of a 300,000 D ballot margin going in to election day to win. He had just 115,000.

Trump won by 112,900 over Hillary in 2016 on 9,502,000 votes; there are already 9,664,126 votes counted early plus today; and the R > D ballot count has already moved from -115,000 to +35,757; a change of more than 150,000.

*That* is why Joe needed a 300,000 D>R ballot count by last night. Didn’t get it.

If (and I said *if*) current trends hold today, Trump may finish with a 250,000 to 300,000 vote margin over Biden in Florida.

How much of that overperformance in 2020 > 2016, if it holds, will translate to other states? That is the question.


90 posted on 11/03/2020 7:56:59 AM PST by Reagan80 ("In this current crisis, government is not the solution to our problems, goverment IS the problem")
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To: SpeedyInTexas
Turnout from all Early Voting:

Ds - 66.9%
Rs - 66.4%
NPA/Other - 52.6%


Turnout from all Early Voting + Election Day:

D turnout = 70.0%
R turnout = 72.9%

2016 Ds - 74.4%, Rs - 81.2%
91 posted on 11/03/2020 8:01:19 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

R’s lead by 56,009. When should we feel good about these #’s? Or do I reserve my excitement until the # is larger?


92 posted on 11/03/2020 8:01:37 AM PST by raynman33
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To: SpeedyInTexas

72.9% to 81.2% Means?

We got alot of voters still a coming...


93 posted on 11/03/2020 8:01:57 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Reagan80

56K... not slowing yet.


94 posted on 11/03/2020 8:01:59 AM PST by Tuxedo (Let's Finish This)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

R’s leading by 56k now. Not counting chickens etc, but would much rather be leading by 56k than trailing.


95 posted on 11/03/2020 8:02:04 AM PST by Ironfocus (Texas! MAGA!)
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To: raynman33

North of 200K and you can start breathing easier.


96 posted on 11/03/2020 8:03:04 AM PST by Tuxedo (Let's Finish This)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

R’s next gain +20,252 last update

now +56,009

I assume Byecomeys page is being updated evert 20 min still?

that was more like 30 min in between updates

next update will take us over the 60K rep lead in 2016


97 posted on 11/03/2020 8:03:36 AM PST by janetjanet998
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To: raynman33

I feel good already. BUT we need larger numbers in case Indys break against us.

Our turnout needs to go up 8 points.

Thats still 400k of voters a coming.


98 posted on 11/03/2020 8:04:22 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: janetjanet998

I think he said 30 minutes then next 10 minutes?

He’s give notices on twitter.

Don’t know why, but don’t expect 20 minutes.


99 posted on 11/03/2020 8:05:36 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: bort

“I think Stacey Abrams is warming up her vocal cords...”

I am soooo stealing that.

If turnout is this huge, it means we might pull out my home state of Nevada. I hate Ralston with a passion, it’s a grudge that goes back to 1992. Dishonest slimeball.


100 posted on 11/03/2020 8:06:58 AM PST by DaxtonBrown
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