Posted on 11/03/2020 5:45:18 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 673,828
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 558,412
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 115,416
polls close 7pm as of 10:08 update
rep net +22,129
9 hours or 27 updates ending at 7pm eastern
if rep average +5000 net then end up +155K
if rep average +7500 net then end up +224,500
if rep average 10,000 net then end up +292,000
if rep average 12,500 then the n end up +359,500
but then
REP bonus: an extra hour and panhandle only
10:48am update +13,826
This will be incredible, especially since R's seem to have kept it reasonably close in many swing states in early vote.
Registered Ds - 5,303,254
Registered Rs - 5,169,102
Ds Voted - 3695319
Rs Voted - 3731076
D turnout = 69.7%
R turnout = 72.2%
2016 Ds - 74.4%, Rs - 81.2%
As I noted weeks ago, Collier County, FL is ground zero for Trump’s base. As of right now, Collier leads Florida in turnout with 82.3% turnout and is heading for the low 90s. Trump carried Collier in 2016 with 61% of the vote (105K total Trump votes). Trump is on par to win over 70% of Collier with a higher turnout. #momentum.
I think Stacey Abrams is warming up her vocal cords...
“Stacey Abrams is warming up her vocal cords”
LOL
A bit more sensitivity stuff: NPAs will likely arrive at about 2.5M.
1% lean either way would be 25K.
There will now be an avalanche of comments saying “I think they will lean R”. Doesn’t matter what one thinks in sensitivity checks.
A lead of 75K deals with a 3% lean against. 2% is 50K and 1% is 25K.
So running up the score is a good thing for R lead.
200k or 300k would be almost insurmountable for Biden.
nod
I think the morning rush (before work) is done and it’ll be slowing down (for both mind you) and we start picking up again around 3pm.
No, that was the previous weekend.
The main cause of the D pickup from 94K to 115K was the continued incoming mail count on Sunday and Monday when most in-person early voting sites were closed on Sunday (a few open, but not many); and *no* in person early voting sites open on Monday.
Both campaigns thought Joe needed upwards of a 300,000 D ballot margin going in to election day to win. He had just 115,000.
Trump won by 112,900 over Hillary in 2016 on 9,502,000 votes; there are already 9,664,126 votes counted early plus today; and the R > D ballot count has already moved from -115,000 to +35,757; a change of more than 150,000.
*That* is why Joe needed a 300,000 D>R ballot count by last night. Didn’t get it.
If (and I said *if*) current trends hold today, Trump may finish with a 250,000 to 300,000 vote margin over Biden in Florida.
How much of that overperformance in 2020 > 2016, if it holds, will translate to other states? That is the question.
R’s lead by 56,009. When should we feel good about these #’s? Or do I reserve my excitement until the # is larger?
72.9% to 81.2% Means?
We got alot of voters still a coming...
56K... not slowing yet.
R’s leading by 56k now. Not counting chickens etc, but would much rather be leading by 56k than trailing.
North of 200K and you can start breathing easier.
R’s next gain +20,252 last update
now +56,009
I assume Byecomeys page is being updated evert 20 min still?
that was more like 30 min in between updates
next update will take us over the 60K rep lead in 2016
I feel good already. BUT we need larger numbers in case Indys break against us.
Our turnout needs to go up 8 points.
Thats still 400k of voters a coming.
I think he said 30 minutes then next 10 minutes?
He’s give notices on twitter.
Don’t know why, but don’t expect 20 minutes.
“I think Stacey Abrams is warming up her vocal cords...”
I am soooo stealing that.
If turnout is this huge, it means we might pull out my home state of Nevada. I hate Ralston with a passion, it’s a grudge that goes back to 1992. Dishonest slimeball.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.