Posted on 10/29/2020 6:10:44 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 631,436
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 424,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 206,914
The ADVANTAGE MAP is looking more red each day.
By Election Day, maybe all red.
“Alright. Mine are FL to Trump, 51-47; NC to Trump by 7-8 points, MN to Trump by 51-49. Hawaii to Biden 50-49.”
I agree with all of them just not the margina. But I hope you are right. Especially about Hawaii.
From 10/6 I actually have 350 electoral votes going to Trump, with two states as toss-ups. (I messed up and said “351”; I think ME-01 is too big of a stretch, but I think Trump wins ME’s 2 state EVs.) I’ll finalize that thread and my prediction on Monday. There’s a lot of data I am really liking, but Trump’s campaign schedule is making me mildly nervous.
after hours updates (lets call it done for the day..may add a few more dozen)
+388
+220
+47
+49
+38,426
+Saratosa daily update within the HR
+ missing Polk; lets assume +500 but not count those for today(can double up tomorrow)
I was joking about the Hawaii margin! LOL (It’s the most Dem state in the country acc to Cook’s PVI ratings.)
Those are your IPEV numbers? I started the day with a GOP IPEV advantage of 426K, and byecomey’s map shows it now at 472,636 (a gain of about 46K). How are we so far off?
Come on Hawaii!
She’s just talking about the last 20 minutes or so...OT but I too worry about the schedule mildly. Otoh looks like Biden is going back to MN and MI.
gotta minus the D VBM gains of almost 7.5K
Thanks for all the updates.
Lets do it again tomorrow.
She’s also including VBM
I wasn’t joking about Hawaii.
I hope you are right!
sorry, ignore last post. Yes, I have net EV gains for R at 48K and net VBM gain for D at 7.5K, so a 41K gain for the good guys (sand Polk, MD and Sarasota) for the day
Okay, thanks to you both.
Those are your IPEV numbers? I started the day with a GOP IPEV advantage of 426K, and byecomey’s map shows it now at 472,636 (a gain of about 46K). How are we so far off?
—
I wrote the numbers down around 8am eastern from byecomey’s map
Rep +427,091 EV
Dems +628,414 Mail
net R +201323
“Warren wants to be Joe Biden’s Treasury secretary”.
Listening to Warren talk is even worse than listening to Clinton.
They are measuring the curtains and interviewing for Secretary of XXX.
I am doing net gains not just in person
So a large poll was completed (N=71,789 adults).
Poll result shows wrong conclusion.
But the most telling part to me was Age.
Trump winning senior vote 53-44.
This I believe.
Analyst from “the other side”. Big Dem alarm bells ringing for FL he says.
Matthew Isbell
@mcimaps
Democrats still maintain a narrow lead in party turnout in Florida. This is of course narrowing as GOP-heavy early voting continues.
Big Democratic alarm bells - Dade’s 6% gap in turnout. Its over 8% with Hispanics. Dem Hispanics need to show up more. Cuban Rs are #flapol
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