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Florida Early Vote update, 10/29/2020
ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/29/2020 | self

Posted on 10/29/2020 6:10:44 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 631,436

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 424,522

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 206,914


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: earlyvoting; florida
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To: SpeedyInTexas

The ADVANTAGE MAP is looking more red each day.

By Election Day, maybe all red.


241 posted on 10/29/2020 4:33:15 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Coop

“Alright. Mine are FL to Trump, 51-47; NC to Trump by 7-8 points, MN to Trump by 51-49. Hawaii to Biden 50-49.”

I agree with all of them just not the margina. But I hope you are right. Especially about Hawaii.


242 posted on 10/29/2020 4:34:52 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

From 10/6 I actually have 350 electoral votes going to Trump, with two states as toss-ups. (I messed up and said “351”; I think ME-01 is too big of a stretch, but I think Trump wins ME’s 2 state EVs.) I’ll finalize that thread and my prediction on Monday. There’s a lot of data I am really liking, but Trump’s campaign schedule is making me mildly nervous.


243 posted on 10/29/2020 4:36:33 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: All

after hours updates (lets call it done for the day..may add a few more dozen)

+388
+220
+47
+49

+38,426
+Saratosa daily update within the HR
+ missing Polk; lets assume +500 but not count those for today(can double up tomorrow)


244 posted on 10/29/2020 4:36:48 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: SpeedyInTexas

I was joking about the Hawaii margin! LOL (It’s the most Dem state in the country acc to Cook’s PVI ratings.)


245 posted on 10/29/2020 4:37:43 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: janetjanet998

Those are your IPEV numbers? I started the day with a GOP IPEV advantage of 426K, and byecomey’s map shows it now at 472,636 (a gain of about 46K). How are we so far off?


246 posted on 10/29/2020 4:39:54 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: Coop

Come on Hawaii!


247 posted on 10/29/2020 4:41:26 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Coop

She’s just talking about the last 20 minutes or so...OT but I too worry about the schedule mildly. Otoh looks like Biden is going back to MN and MI.


248 posted on 10/29/2020 4:43:55 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Coop

gotta minus the D VBM gains of almost 7.5K


249 posted on 10/29/2020 4:44:11 PM PDT by JerseyRepub
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To: janetjanet998

Thanks for all the updates.

Lets do it again tomorrow.


250 posted on 10/29/2020 4:44:33 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Coop

She’s also including VBM


251 posted on 10/29/2020 4:44:59 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: Coop

I wasn’t joking about Hawaii.

I hope you are right!


252 posted on 10/29/2020 4:45:15 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: JerseyRepub

sorry, ignore last post. Yes, I have net EV gains for R at 48K and net VBM gain for D at 7.5K, so a 41K gain for the good guys (sand Polk, MD and Sarasota) for the day


253 posted on 10/29/2020 4:46:23 PM PDT by JerseyRepub
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To: SpeedyInTexas
I have Biden Hawaii 5-0.

One wonders if Biden thinks he has PA in the bag, or if they think he screwed the pooch and they cobbling together another strategy.
254 posted on 10/29/2020 4:47:39 PM PDT by wareagle7295
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To: JerseyRepub; Ravi

Okay, thanks to you both.


255 posted on 10/29/2020 4:49:19 PM PDT by Coop (After 14 years, it's time for a new tagline)
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To: Coop

Those are your IPEV numbers? I started the day with a GOP IPEV advantage of 426K, and byecomey’s map shows it now at 472,636 (a gain of about 46K). How are we so far off?

I wrote the numbers down around 8am eastern from byecomey’s map

Rep +427,091 EV
Dems +628,414 Mail
net R +201323


256 posted on 10/29/2020 4:49:25 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: SpeedyInTexas

“Warren wants to be Joe Biden’s Treasury secretary”.

Listening to Warren talk is even worse than listening to Clinton.

They are measuring the curtains and interviewing for Secretary of XXX.


257 posted on 10/29/2020 4:49:29 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: Coop

I am doing net gains not just in person


258 posted on 10/29/2020 4:53:37 PM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: SpeedyInTexas

So a large poll was completed (N=71,789 adults).

Poll result shows wrong conclusion.

But the most telling part to me was Age.

Trump winning senior vote 53-44.

This I believe.


259 posted on 10/29/2020 5:02:36 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas (Localization, not Globalization)
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To: SpeedyInTexas

Analyst from “the other side”. Big Dem alarm bells ringing for FL he says.

Matthew Isbell
@mcimaps

Democrats still maintain a narrow lead in party turnout in Florida. This is of course narrowing as GOP-heavy early voting continues.

Big Democratic alarm bells - Dade’s 6% gap in turnout. Its over 8% with Hispanics. Dem Hispanics need to show up more. Cuban Rs are #flapol


260 posted on 10/29/2020 5:40:29 PM PDT by plushaye (God wins! Anarchy begone in Jesus Name!)
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