Posted on 10/29/2020 6:10:44 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 631,436
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 424,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 206,914
The 25 cars are extremely excited.
Article on Florida VBM rejected ballots. Numbers are low.
Q polls are laughably bad and really shouldn’t be posted. The fact that even they couldn’t manufacture a lead for the rats in Iowa is telling.
going to be tough to hit net +40K today which was my guessimate yesterday
assuming +1600 for Sarasota this evening and +400 for missing Polk
and +400 from the panhandle this evening plus +200 slop over from others
need net +37400 by the time most polls close at 6pm or 4 hours from now need 18,000 more +nets
or 1502 every 20 min refresh on the page (12 total)
nice last HR for the good guys (net plus)
+1809
+1331
+1601
average of 3 updates 1582 per update
+24121 net on day to hit 37400 in 3 hours need 1475 per update
I think the biggest category of rejected ballots are those arriving after 7pm election day.
From recent primary: “More than 35,000 mail-in ballots were rejected in Florida primary”
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/09/17/more-than-35-000-mail-in-ballots-were-rejected-in-florida-primary-1317327
If I can find the number of rejected VBM from 2016 GE I’ll post. I thought I found that number on Daniel Smith’s site or twitter but a bit fuzzy.
Don’t exaggerate! It could be dozens;)
Reading your posts makes me smarter...
Found number for 2018 GE. 31,969 VBM not counted.
“In Florida, notwithstanding opportunities for voters to cure missing or mismatched signatures, tens of thousands of on-time VBM ballots are still rejected every election. In the 2018 general election, for example, more than 1/100 VBM ballots received by local election officials were ultimately not counted, amounting to some 31,969 uncounted ballots.”
https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/full/10.1089/elj.2020.0658
Its a tough read. Trust me, you won’t want to.
Actually, 2016 and 2018 in that same article.
“Of the more than 2.7 million VBM ballots cast in November 2016, over 27,700 were not counted, corresponding to a rejection rate of approximately 1.0 percent. And, of the more than 2.6 million VBM ballots cast in November 2018, nearly 32,000 were invalid, a rejection rate of approximately 1.2 percent.”
If you look at the chart of rejection by Age in 2016.
The seniors have the lowest rejection rate!
The 18-21 year olds have a 4% rejection rate.
Have to applaud NM Rs.
NM is a long shot, but possible if the Indys go our way.
“The 18-21 year olds have a 4% rejection rate.”
and they beat their record with a 5% rejection rate in 2018.
Maybe 6% rejection in 2020?
And Whites had the lowest rejection rate.
I spell racism, some how.
Take a 46-second break from the numbers and watch a most heartwarming clip. This is definitely someone who makes America great. [I hope she gets invited to the WH or makes it on a campaign ad at least.]
https://twitter.com/Alon2T/status/1321637505670762498
“Mary Jane Jacoby Is 101 Years Old. On Election Day She Will Ride In A Motorcycle Sidecar To Vote In Person. “Jane” Has Been Voting Since 1940. “Jane” Believes In @realDonaldTrump
Making America Great Again Starts With Voting. If “Jane Can Do It , So Can You. God Bless America!”
I think Polk EV (and likely VBM) are still stuck at yesterday’s numbers. Once they upload their numbers, we should expect 1-2K votes for the good guys.
And after 25 million calculations the article predicts
63,281 to 64,439 VBM rejections in 2020 if VBM use doubles.
Definitely!
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