Posted on 10/29/2020 6:10:44 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 631,436
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 424,522
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 206,914
Been stuck on 37.9 thousand votes since last night for IPEV.
Headline: Five Days before Election Trump Enjoys Massive Lead over Biden in NH
McSally was ahead by what 60k votes on ED but wound up losing by the same after counting mail ballots several days later. Remember they didn’t call AZ for Trump until several days later but everyone assumed he won.
Uh, because polls are: Garbage? Worm food? Steaming piles of manure? I
The entry for yesterday is about the Philadelphia riots, not the election. Here is the entry for 3 days ago about Wisconsin.
Size of the electorate based on turnout scenarios:
0.79 11,409,076
0.78 11,264,657
0.77 11,120,238
0.76 10,975,820
0.75 10,831,401
0.74 10,686,982
0.73 10,542,564
0.72 10,398,145
About NV for those interested:
“2020 is the first election in which Nevada has a same-day voting registration system in place, and so far Republicans are outpacing Democrats in ‘same-day’ registrations & voting - 6,800 Rs to 5,700 Ds”
“Republicans lead Democrats in same day registrations and voting in every single county of Nevada, including Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno)”
https://twitter.com/kevv_charles/status/1321844654925635585
Here’s the link you asked for.
Do you have an estimate as to what the total electorate will be in Florida?
It was 9.4 Million in 2016. 8.4 Million in 2012. 8.4 Million in 2008.
We would then need to subtract the total early vote from that number to figure out how many votes would be left on the table.
____________________________________________
As of this a.m., 4,145,926 votes were on the table assuming 78% turnout.
I determined that vote share % based on the last 10 days of EV. My thinking is that this 10 day period provides a good estimate of what the remainder of the election will be.
D 36.2%
R 41.7%
I 22.1%
If that plays out, Rs - Ds = 24,504. If Trump takes more than 50% of NPA’s, that adds to his margin. Of course, he could take a disproportionate share of party defectors too.
WI does not register voters by party. Don’t know where the data is coming from.
Rich Baris (People’s Pundit) came out with his new Michigan poll today.
48.5 Biden
46.5 Trump
45 Peters
41.9 James
Almost 4 out of 10 said they are uncomfortable telling a pollster who they intend to vote for.
Turnout in FL as ranged 70-75% since 2000.
Maybe I’m too high at 80%.
NPAs bring it down.
But I can see us higher than 75 and the highest these past 20 years.
Party registration is modeled by TargetSmart from multiple commercial sources. (It’s written underneath the graph.)
NPA turnout in 2016 was only 63%.
11 points below Ds.
18 points below Rs.
In the Iowa youth straw poll, 31,000 students were polled from 225 schools.
“trump has won the iowa youth straw poll by 23 points (55%-32%)
it’s an interesting gauge of those who haven’t entered the electorate yet, especially due to its large sample size
in 2016, trump won it by 11 and in 2012, obama won it by 14”
https://twitter.com/nguyenthevote/status/1321673220777533440
UMichvoter’s tracking site also has Polk at same number that it closed at yesterday so something isn’t right with Polk’s reporting....
I can’t help but think Trump will get 330+ EC points next Tuesday.
I’d love a large enough margin for a red wave!!
Trump tripled his margin. Holy cow!
I thinks Rs may need to move up from 81.2 in 2016 to almost 84% this year.
“A Few Long-Serving House Democrats Face Surprise Election Fights”
OR-04 Peter DeFazio
WI-03 Ron Kind
MN-07 Collin Peterson
I’ll post in House thread also
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