Monmouth poll: Biden takes slim lead in Georgia, Ossoff-Perdue deadlocked

Atlanta Journal-Constitution ^ | 10/28/20 | Greg Bluestein

[madprof98]

The Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows Democrats making recent gains in Georgia, with Joe Biden eking out a slim lead over President Donald Trump and Jon Ossoff knotted up against U.S. Sen. David Perdue.

It’s also the latest poll that has Democrat Raphael Warnock as the clear front-runner in the chaotic special election for U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s seat – and it gives him a head-to-head lead over both Loeffler and U.S. Rep. Doug Collins in a likely Jan. 5 runoff.

[doc maverick]

Yesssss! Merkely in Oregon is a lying, conniving LEFTIST and he”s going to LOSE.
Governor Brown WILL BE recalled and then it’s on to dumping snake face Wyden.

[riverdawg]

RCP reports that 3 of the 5 polls it covers has Perdue ahead. One of those 3 (WSB-TV/Landmark) has Perdue at +5.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/ga/georgia_senate_perdue_vs_ossoff-7067.html#!

[LRoggy]

Thak you Mitch McConnell and the rest of the GOP-E for thinking Loeffler was a worthy selection. She is an entitled, wealthy air head.

[CatOwner]

The only polls Biden would be collapsing in are the private polls. A *VAST* majority of the voting public doesn’t have a clue.

[Tejas Rob]

If what I have seen is correct, Biden is going to win every state. Do they expect us to believe this crap?

[CatOwner]

The same place the DEMs are getting their polls numbers.

[BigEdLB]

Who is the pollster

[conservativepoet]

The only polls Biden would be collapsing in are the private polls. A *VAST* majority of the voting public doesn’t have a clue.
_________________

You’re wrong. Most people think Trump will win. I think it was Gallop that indicated that.

[doc maverick]

Pure manure! There’s no way Hiden is pulling ahead ANYWHERE.
He’s kaput!

[conservativepoet]

And that’s why Obama is heading to Michigan for Biden.

[FR33DOM4ME]

Realclearpolitics.com lists this as a poll of 504 LV. However, if I read the methodology from Monmouth they say the sample is of 504 registered voters. BUT they apply some sort of a likely voter model to these 504 registered voters. At this point I cannot see where Monmouth indicates what number of these 504 are likely voters.

Here is their 'likely voter' formula:

+ Monmouth’s likely voter models for the 2020 election are not forecasts. They are designed to present a range of reasonable outcomes based on voter intentions as of this moment (including ballots already cast as well as potential for undercounting among certain demographic groups due to election administration issues). Each registered voter is assigned a probabilistic weight between 0 and 1, based primarily on past voting history, with adjustments for self-reported likelihood to vote, motivation and other factors. Further adjustments are applied to the aggregate sample based on turnout propensities among different demographic groups (e.g. by race, gender, education).

[Qiviut]

One note of ‘caution’ ... I had looked this up earlier for Georgia for someone else, but didn’t post it because these numbers are from polling conducted 07/15/20 - 07/18/20. You have to go into the ‘report’ info to find it.

Here’s the link:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/14b1jw1EuSpo90_kwZJKiSjHMQ378jFoA/view

STILL, I would have a hard time believing that Joe is leading by anything substantial in GA ... he would have had to make up a heck of a lot of ground since July, too.

[HamiltonJay]

Hahahah hahahah hahahaha

They are working overtime this week.

Up in GA up 17 in Wi or whatever....

Anyone believing any of this is a fool. A damned fool..

[iamgalt]

Your chart is a bit stunning. It is pretty much the opposite of how I remember it. If this was the case how come there were all those stories about why the polls had it so wrong? Some thing fishy here.

[DarthVader]

Don’t like it don’t read it. There are plenty of posts on here where I have the source explained!!

[lwd]

For clarification, those are all polls of Georgians (not national)? Trump winning GA shouldn’t really be a surprise but I see you point.

[lwd]

I think it’s just polls of people from Georgia, a solidly conservative state.

[FR33DOM4ME]

And July had seen peak COVID-19 daily case rates at that point in time with the doom and gloom drumbeat in the media.

[DarthVader]

Your the Democrat troll who receives 15 text messages from Democrat candidates!

[SmokingJoe]

Here ya go

Poll: Trump jumps ahead of Biden; Warnock and Perdue lead senate races in Georgia

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/poll-trump-jumps-ahead-biden-warnock-perdue-lead-senate-races-georgia/GHWJNEDJPVFG3J465TBBB3OZ5A/