Posted on 10/27/2020 5:55:37 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 615,110
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 312,828
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 302,282
“76 to 78%”
Yea, I think in this area.
But 81% beats them. If lucky, our turnout goes up like theirs.
So, Collier apparently has a lot of white working-class voters and retirees. A lot of these folks are registered “Democrats” but are really conservative/Republican leaning. TargetSmart models voters. As of right now, they project that Trump would have 66% of the vote if we opened ballots today. Republican turnout is increasing every day b/c Dems shot their wad with mail-ins, and Republicans always out-vote Dems on Election Day. 70% at least, but Trump may get 75%.
Someone already posted this on FR.
But still like to point it out:
“Shepard Smith’s CNBC Show Bombs in Ratings, Placing Last in Cable News and Behind Fox Business Repeats”
Just to cheer us on more.
Hopefully, CNBC paid him alot of money.
“Odds are that his new show will not upset many. But that’s only because they won’t be watching in the first place,”
Ouch, that burned.
Report: Bezos buying CNN
“The poll momentum is in Trump’s direction. I will take a 1 point win but would love to see him blow this thing out and call it a night early.”
I want to see Trump crush them like bugs. To see them driven before the Trump Train in terror, so that we, The Deplorables, can enjoy the lamentations of their gender non-binary otherkin.
Oh, Trump will love Bezos even more, NOT.
WPost and CNN.
what was it in 2016 for each group?
My favorite state. NM! First state where REP turnout exceeds the DEMs on a % basis.
DEMs 49.8% turnout (300,155 out of 603,039 RV)
REPs 50.3% turnout (208,081 out of 413,604 RV)
Not only is he already “down” 92,074 votes, but there are 189,435 more available Democrat votes left than Republican.
If the GOP got a whopping 100,000 of their remaining potential 205,523 votes in, the Democrats would only need 7,927 votes from their remaining 302,884 potential votes to win.
If that's the case, call New Mexico for Biden now.
3pm update
EV rep +44,636
mail in dem +5094
net Rep + 39,542
D VBM lead 619294
If they keep this up, they won’t pass the number which we won’t speak of.
3pm update
EV rep +44,636
mail in dem +5094
net Rep + 39,542
Kind of an interesting side note, at least for me right outside of Tampa on the I-4 corridor, the volume of election mail I have received is way down this year compared to four years ago.
Same up here in suburban Jax. We got a bunch of mail from Democrats in 2016. Nothing so far. But the youtube ads have been unreal lately. Almost every youtube video starts with some type of Biden ad.
New Mexico is a tough state.
But in 2016, Trump + Libertarian vote exceeded Clinton vote total.
Energy workers there will go for Trump.
Energy is a thing in NM.
Trump overcame that with a 350K margin on election day. This year his % margin on election day may be larger, but the total election day vote may be less.
Things are so different this year that it is hard to say, but you should not count on the Biden early vote margin being as small as the R-D gap in registrants who vote early.
D VBM return rate is 69.8% vs 68.1% this morning. Up 1.7 so far. So going to have a 2 point day.
R VBM return rate is 66.9% vs 64.8% this morning.
Gap is 2.9 vs 3.3 this morning.
There’s a strong cross-over element in NM and a strong population of unaffiliateds. Trump has a long shot there but it’s certainly possible and definitely better than 2016.
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