Posted on 10/25/2020 6:45:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 594,110
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 230,261
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 363,849
Agree!
Book-closing statistics available at the state website. I believe byecomey is working on this. However up to him if he wants to include it - it was discussed previously. Regardless his map is a national treasure.
Amen.
That is an excellent thing to point out. In practice, if you have an address change where your driver’s license or other id doesn’t match the address the SOE has you will be questioned about which is correct. During EV it’s no big deal. The workers can change your address and give you the proper ballot for your precinct on the spot as long as you are in the same county. However on election day if your move changes your precinct, you will be sent to the new precinct to vote.
So fix your details now or be prepared to wait in two lines if there’s an address discrepancy on ED.
Here is the source for my 2016 turnout numbers:
At 5m registered voters, every 1% move in turnout is 50k.
I assume R turnout stays same at 81.2%.
If D turnout came in at 74.4% like 2016 instead of 78.5%, Biden would lose 200,000 votes.
Going up to 80.5 instead of 78.5 means Biden adding 100,000.
Elections are about turning out your voters.
I will take the under on Dem 78.5% overall turnout.
Nice post for a Sunday. Any day, actually. And I can relate to the “big melon” comment. :-)
Slow day. Looks like a 2 point safety instead of a 3 point field goal.
We’re just going to have to agree to disagree on this one...:-)
Pollsters no longer uses “party totals.” Good pollsters don’t even weight by party any more.
Because as you say response rates are so low they are forced to be more “granular” as Baris says. They use their voter files and try to find specific groups of people to get a “representative sample.”
A republican librarian does not vote the same way a republican mechanic does. Suburban Norwegians do not vote the same way suburban Italians do, etc.
Pollsters have to know the area they are polling very well. As they say polling is now art and science. And the ones that have been most successful in the last couple cycles (Baris, Cahaly, Rasmussen) all say that the “shy” Trump voter is a real problem and skews their results.
In addition they all say “people lie.” Cahaly says they tell him they are voting for Biden and he knows it is a lie because they answer every question on the poll in a Trump supporter way. They also “park” their votes in third party candidates even though they have no intention of voting for them. Or they say they are undecided, etc. But, mostly they just won’t answer the phone.
Saying you are voting for Trump is now considered “socially undesirable” and large numbers of people avoid doing that.
Baris’s recent polls have included the question “Do you think there is a significant amount of “shy” voters?” 65% said yes, 17% said no.
Then he asked if they were uncomfortable telling a pollster who they intend to vote for. 30% said yes.
This article I’m reading makes me laugh.
“There is no doubt that Columbiana County is going all-in for President Trump on Nov 3. Finding a Joe Biden supporter in this rural, red, working-class county is like finding a needle in a haystack. Trump signage, on the other hand, is epic. People don’t have just one — they have nine, along with at least two flags and a 4-foot-by-8-foot sign on the front porch.”
“Trump will do much better among Blacks.” This is measured? Is it measured men and women separately?”
I think this is true about Black men. Especially the younger Black men.
The Bible verses I shared proverbs 6:16ff
These six things the Lord hates,
Yes, seven are an abomination to Him:
A haughty eyes,
A lying tongue,
Hands that shed innocent blood,
A heart that devises wicked schemes,
Feet that are swift in running to evil,
A false witness who speaks lies,
And one who sows discord among brethren.
I’d mostly forgotten this passage, but God is perfect in His timing to fill our mouths with just the right words at just the right time, when we’ve got nothing to offer.
Pray those words, His Word, bears fruit in season.
To His glory!
As long as the points go on the right side of the scoreboard!
Amen
Yeah, I’ve not gotten around to it yet because the idea for displaying a cannibalization factor pre-empted it. I’m working on the NC map to be released today and after that will add the registration data.
I do think just to rewards Trump’s biggest prize that Trump should do one TX rally next time he makes a stop to AZ.
Some of Jorgensen votes will go to Trump.
One of my neighbors in small town Arizona has FOUR Trump flags. And he’s black.
Scrolled around some. VBM states in 2016 were Utah, Hawaii, Colorado, Oregon and Washington. Their turnout was pretty strong.
Utah 82%
Hawaii 58%
Oregon 70.26%
Colorado 74%
Washington 79%
Florida without VBM was 75%
Texas 59%
Michigan 63%
Wisconsin 67%
Arizona 74%
Pennsylvania unreported (!!!)
FL GOP IPEV advantage is just over 240K ballots cast.
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