Posted on 10/25/2020 6:45:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 594,110
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 230,261
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 363,849
No. The actual results being posted are more like Trump 58 - Biden 39 in a tally I recently saw. The media is lying to try to turn out vote for the state and local elections.
The quote I posted on TX counties was from Wasserman. Should have noted that.
I saw a stat couple days ago . 4 of 5 Texas counties with terrible turnout are D counties.
I couldn’t find it in a quick search so didn’t post that.
What you say is so true. It was in Dade, Palm Beach and Broward that CNN analysts were counting on in ED 2016 to pull off enough votes for HRC to balance off the incredibly high rural vote for Trump. That’s how the sad lament from one of them: “the votes for HER just aren’t there” went on.
Now it’s only Broward going D+XX and the other 2 staying even, at least in INPEV. However, even in VPM, the Hispanic (especially) and AA vote will make itself known..for Trump.
Great site....he went over Texas thoroughly. Thank you!
This morning in Englewood, FL, no line/no wait/walk right up for IPEV.
Sounds like it could be a slow day with votes.
¡VOTED!
This morning, broward county
No, zero, none Biden reps outside the polling place. Only conservative and trump volunteers.
Wore my trump hat
https://www.trumpstore.com/collections/men-headwear/products/trump-baseball-cap
...GREAT fitting hats btw...especially if you’ve got a big melon like mine
Exchanged Bible verses with two ladies volunteering, who were incredibly sweet.
Walked out past the trump volunteers and exchanged “...and now we pray” sentiments
Thank you Lord
I don’t think it’s wrong. I think it’s correct with the information they have. How many “Biden” supporters are actually Trump supporters who want to keep their preferred candidate secret?
When I was polled before the ‘16 election, the pollster hung up thinking I was the biggest hillary supporter in the country. Joke was on him.
The hidden Trump support is out there albeit more hidden than ‘16.
The Rs higher turnout history and higher likely turnout again this year is key.
Take my red precinct (68% registered Rs), in a purple county (Duval), in purple state Florida.
EV turnout in my precinct so far is 39% versus 36% for Duval as a whole. Initially, that might not seem like good news because it suggests that Rs are cannibalizing ED vote. But that’s not the case. Our precinct turned out 85.8% and 88% of Rs in 2016. Duval’ s overall turnout was just 74.8%. So, this red precinct has a much higher ceiling than the purple county within which it sits.
Replay this scenario across all of Florida. There are plenty more R votes to be cast and Rs will turnout at higher rates than Ds.
Could I suggest an addition to your excellent map readouts. You give % of 2016EV, VBM, IPEV and % of 2016 total.
Might I suggest also % of 2020 Registered. This is the true measure of turnout.
From Charlotte County, FL SoE website:
“ Florida Law prohibits drop boxes at Voting Locations on Election Day.”
Ping
Do you or anyone from FL have any idea how Laura Loomer is doing? District 21?
It just occurred to me that the Registered number is unknown until Registration ends, which should be about now?
Oh, I agree about the “shy” Trump voter. I think that was responsible for the surprise results in 2016. Pundits tried to suggest voters had moved to Trump at the end, but that wasn’t the case.
Polling isn’t capable of picking them up. Trafalgar says there is twice as much this cycle as there was in 2016.
EV in Charlotte County, FL as of 11:30AM 10/25/2020
Total Ballots by Party
Party Ballots Cast Percent of Ballots Cast
Democrat 22,352 32.26%
Republican 32,106 46.34%
No Party Affiliation 13,701 19.77%
Other 1,132 1.63%
When Can You Register
You can apply to register to vote at any time either by mail or in person. However, the registration books will be closed (”book closing”) on the 29th day before each election and will remain closed until after that election. You must be registered for at least 29 days before you can vote in an election. The date your voter registration application is postmarked or hand delivered to your county Supervisor of Elections, the Division of Elections, a driver’s license office, a voter registration agency, or an armed forces recruitment office will be your registration date. If your application is complete and you are qualified as a voter, a registration information card will be mailed to you.
When the registration books are closed for an election, voter registration and party changes will be accepted, but only for the purpose of subsequent elections. Changes to your name, address, signature and political party are accepted after the deadline for an election except that a political party change made after the books close for a primary election will not become effective until after the primary election.
We should be careful of our own narratives.
“Trump will do much better among Hispanics” This is measured? Is it measured excluding Florida’s Cubans?
“Trump will do much better among Blacks.” This is measured? Is it measured men and women separately?
Trump as a personality could move votes, but if you think it is policy and not personality, then we have to explain 2018 outside California.
“There are shy Trump voters” Okay, how shy? When polling has a 2% response rate, there’s not much room for shy voters to move the measurements. As for capturing shy voters with a model, that’s just imagination.
With a 2% response rate, the major pollsters are applying a turnout model. Probably 2018’s. They have to. There are so few respondents that they have to keep calling to reach their model’s party totals or they can’t even pretend to have a representative sample. As long as that is the turnout model Trump won’t close the major poll lead much. It’s almost certainly wrong.
Bookmark
p.s. Forgot to mention...
On the way out, an elderly lady and her husband were volunteering and asked if I wanted a yard sign. I gladly accepted. She returned with the type that is plastic sheet over the metal frame. Then she proceeded to tell me; “now what you need to do in order to keep it from getting stolen is staple it here at the bottom, then smear Vaseline on it”. What a hoot! I replied that I was using white trailer hitch ball grease and she laughed hysterically “THAT’S WHAT MY SON DOES TOO!”
I THOUGHT 2016 was great, but THIS is the best election EVER!
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