Posted on 10/25/2020 6:45:39 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Florida Update:
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 594,110
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 230,261
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 363,849
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
In this football game, it is the Patriots vs the Devils.
Patriots scored a field goal yesterday instead of a touchdown.
But all scores add to the final result.
Last day to request a VBM ballot was yesterday.
So that denominator is fixed.
“10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%”
Gap down to 6.4 points from 15.9 at its high.
And you’re our favorite poster and webmaster.
Bracing for Souls to Polls (today?). Once that’s past, I think we’re good to accelerate.
If no Souls to Polls effect, expect a slow day today. Many people don’t even know polling stations are open Sundays.
Real D lead in FL now is 150,000
VBM-IPEV=around 350,000-2016 lead of 88,000 - Trump’s final margin of 113,000= about 150,000.
Rs are cutting into this at a rate of 6,000 AN HOUR.
I look for Rs to take the lead sometime around Tues, depending on the strength of the continued VBM.
I just saw the additional VBMs, so the real D lead is around 162,000.
About 26 hours of voting.
D VBM return rate is 65.3%. Yesterday was 63.1%
R VBM return rate is 61.8%
3.5 point gap. Closing ever so slowly.
No postal mail today so similar numbers tomorrow.
6 days of VBM updates until Election Eve.
D returns increases by 2.2 points from yesterday.
2.2*6 = 13.2 + 65.3 = 78.5% ==> current turnout trajectory
78.5 would make it a close race but a losing race
Many people don’t even know polling stations are open Sundays.
************
Some churches make this a celebration event. Sunday Service,
dinner on the ground and then carpool to the early voting site.
Not good.
Those early voting dems will vote again on Election Day.
You got me beat with that map!
I was counting those 65 counties “manually”.
Now I click a button.
Still pisses me off that evangelical republican Christians don’t have a souls to the polls day as well. Seems like a great way to rack up votes. Some of those megachurches have 50,000 congregants. Dumb missed opportunity for the GOP.
Not in Florida they won’t. No way. They will have an awesome vacation to the state jail.
“Its ALMOST Over”
Have you been watching numbers at all in Texas? Very upsetting Dallas Morning News poll just out. B 48; T 45
The Speedy Math says Rs can win with a D combined lead of 300k on Election Day.
We are only 63k away from that.
Return rate difference in NC down to 2.3%. We’ll take the field goal hoping for several touchdowns next week.
We got this.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_biden-6818.html
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