Here is the source for my 2016 turnout numbers:
At 5m registered voters, every 1% move in turnout is 50k.
I assume R turnout stays same at 81.2%.
If D turnout came in at 74.4% like 2016 instead of 78.5%, Biden would lose 200,000 votes.
Going up to 80.5 instead of 78.5 means Biden adding 100,000.
Elections are about turning out your voters.
I will take the under on Dem 78.5% overall turnout.
Slow day. Looks like a 2 point safety instead of a 3 point field goal.
The GOP is going to turnout more then 81% this year!